JustinRP37 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 You can never discuss weather in definitives, it just does not always work out. We will see what happens, but hopefully we do get that push into nice winter weather. It remains to be seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The 1st shot at a real system for the entire area may show up either side of the 25th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I am not going to post day 12 surface maps but the MJO into p7 supports the trough in the SE at the date I outlined yesterday. Jan 25th or so. But the GFS now has SLP at the BM, the key will be can this phase and the cold air win out. N branch was off by 18 hours. Just a time frame to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I am not going to post day 12 surface maps but the MJO into p7 supports the trough in the SE at the date I outlined yesterday. Jan 25th or so. But the GFS now has SLP at the BM, the key will be can this phase and the cold air win out. N branch was off by 18 hours. Just a time frame to watch. I'm sorry, but with that setup and track that's a snowstorm. Then again I'm not losing sleep over a day 12 GFS surface reflection. At this far out juncture I'm just looking for a consistent signal with all the major models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 51 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I'm sorry, but with that setup and track that's a snowstorm. Then again I'm not losing sleep over a day 12 GFS surface reflection. At this far out juncture I'm just looking for a consistent signal with all the major models. The EPS takes the ULL and digs it into the OHV , which would get us home. The GFS over amplifies the N branch ( which it likes to do ) and drives it through the lakes and that would pull the heights back. And I agree being 12 day away that`s why I just left it loose for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 With the MJO heading towards 8-1 there really is no excuse but for a 6 week productive pattern to settle in. I believe February will rock on this board a la 2014 redux. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast I'm not laughing, if that should happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did As long as there are threats , its okay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: As long as there are threats , its okay. like saturday's which is getting rainier with every run? 6 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. next week looks cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: like saturday's which is getting rainier with every run? 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. next week looks cold and dry So now the pattern isnt going to change ? What is it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: So now the pattern isnt going to change ? What is it ? The pattern will improve after the 20th but the -epo/poleward pna has been waffling on the guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 IF NYC gets to 1/31 with 1.5 inches of snow that has to be among the all time lows for the first 2/3 of met winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: IF NYC gets to 1/31 with 1.5 inches of snow that has to be among the all time lows for the first 2/3 of met winter Philly has less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Philly has less than an inch that's 72/73 type bad. Even 01-02 and 11-12 had 4-6 inches by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: that's 72/73 type bad. Even 01-02 and 11-12 had 4-6 inches by the end of January. Didn’t we have a recent memory cold season that had zero accumulation a but into March? As always.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Dude they are a joke , that`s a model run difference and it`s all driven by the day 10 ridging across the lakes Here`s the actual day 7- 14 , does that look like a torch in late Jan ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, rclab said: Didn’t we have a recent memory cold season that had zero accumulation a but into March? As always.... I don't recall a winter like that. Last year was close-but the biggest snow was in Nov, without that we would have gone close to snowless until the March events came... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 That BAM posting was the misleading post of the century. That’s the change in anomaly from the prior EPS run. The actually anomaly shown by the EPS in that period is still entirely below normal in the east 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: I don't recall a winter like that. Last year was close-but the biggest snow was in Nov, without that we would have gone close to snowless until the March events came... 91-92 had basically nothing until mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: 91-92 had basically nothing until mid March yep, now I remember that one. Horrid outside of a mid and late month storm and I remember the 2nd one busting-got like an inch or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That BAM posting was the misleading post of the century. That’s the change in anomaly from the prior EPS run. The actually anomaly shown by the EPS in that period is still entirely below normal in the east Unreal. You don`t expect energy met`s in the private sector to that but when you claim winter is over 3 weeks ago, so I guess you better look for anything to help your story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 91-92 had basically nothing until mid March Yeah that winter my station had 3.2" thru March 17th, then 10" thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: IF NYC gets to 1/31 with 1.5 inches of snow that has to be among the all time lows for the first 2/3 of met winter NYC has 2.7” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast bad snow years always have some misses to the south., the north, and a great storm to early or to late in the season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 least snowfall by dates...... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/20/1973.....trace 1/28/1973.....trace 1/29/1995.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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