IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed. Amazing I didn't have to turn mine off, it didn't run on its own from Saturday morning until this morning on the downstairs zone, second floor zone didn't even call for heat this morning. Folks talking about how cold it feels this morning, which is still 10-12 above average, and already freaking out about this weekend. So yeah, what a good winter is is certainly relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Anyone with more knowledge than an average weenie like me?! Is there a way saturdays storm could turn into a full blown coastal snowstorm? The 6Z GFS is close to this depiction although the surface temps are warm at the immediate coast which appears to be limiting totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Never did I say that Adirondack Park climate was like NYC or even Dutchess County. Just reporting an observation. In fact the post is implicit that it isn't. NYC is not the worst place for snow in the region either; parts of it aren't, parts of it are ok. The coastal regions aren't, but the Bronx and even parts of SI sometimes do better than the rest of the city. Yea it depends where in the city but overall the city seems to generally do worse than all the regions around it. Yes parts of SI and parts of the Bronx are the ideal places in the city to get snow but overall the urban heating influence seems to limit accumulations in any kind of marginal events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I think the colder air delay now matches the MJO plot and delayed effects. I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 As I have pointed out over the last week plus in here the CFS is leading the way and is now strongly into 8 as the hovmoller plots and vp200`s have been saying for 10 days now. The GEFS take it one step further and goes into p1 Which is where this is going. That`s why the Jan 20 - Feb 20 call is alive and well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I think the colder air delay now matches the MJO plot and delayed effects. There is ZERO delay in what is coming. Jan 20 was always the return date. If anything most are going to snow on the 19th , so the flip is on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends. What do you think is happening between Jan 20 and Jan 31. Have you looked at any 500 mb maps and temp anomalies ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Don`t be shocked if there`s a KU event inside the timeline that I have outlined. Great flips are usually accompanied with one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Gone is the garbage turn back into 4/5/6. You will typically see the RIMM plots want to fade back to the base state in the 11-15 , so you use the hovmollers and vp 200 to see if it matches. This is wrong once again and will head into 8 and then 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 26 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Don`t be shocked if there`s a KU event inside the timeline that I have outlined. Great flips are usually accompanied with one. Paul Good to see you in here posting once again! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Nice job Paul People were worried when the MJO was forecasted to go back in 6. Now its heading to 8. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, PB-99 said: What do you think is happening between Jan 20 and Jan 31. Have you looked at any 500 mb maps and temp anomalies ? Yes and they let up on the cold around the 23/24th for a few days. There's some transient ridging in the east around that time. That could change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, PB-99 said: Don`t be shocked if there`s a KU event inside the timeline that I have outlined. Great flips are usually accompanied with one. talk dirty to us! Let's have it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm having trouble connecting to tropical tidbits. Anybody else having this problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: talk dirty to us! Let's have it. 1/23 -1/25 time frame is the 1st period to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 That cold shot next week has strat support with the pv taking a right hook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Three quick thoughts this afternoon: 1. The base case has been that the MJO would progress into Phases 7 and 8. With the MJO now in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.430, things remain well on track for such an outcome. Historically, cases where the MJO reaches a peak amplitude of 3.000 or above during meteorological winter do not fall below an amplitude of 1.000 for two weeks or longer from their date of peak amplitude in a large majority of cases (>80%). This would imply that the MJO will likely remain at an amplitude of 1.000 or above for much or all of the rest of January. At this point, guidance suggesting a fairly rapid collapse in the MJO's amplitude should be discounted. 2. When the MJO reaches Phase 7 at a very high amplitude (2.000 or above), measurable snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions is similar to climatology. That would imply 2 measurable snow events for such cities as Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston. 3. The first such candidate for a measurable snow event is a storm that will impact the region this coming weekend. Although it's too early to pin down possible accumulations, this seems to be the kind of storm that has brought 1"-3"/2"-4" to Philadelphia to New York City (more north and west of this area and in New England, less south and east of that area) in the past. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Where`s the CFS guy ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Let’s hope that the 21-23rd potential can make it far enough north. Eric Webb did a great job with the stats. MJO phase 7 is the best phase for winter storm potential in North Carolina during January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Let’s hope that the 21-23rd potential can make it far enough north. Eric Webb did a great job with the stats. MJO phase 7 is the best phase for winter storm potential in North Carolina during January. The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 10:26 AM, PB-99 said: And probably progresses thru 7 and 8 as well. Those RIMM plots were adamant about looping in p6 12 days ago and instead came out into 7 and 8. I have no gripe with the MJO going into 5 and 6. I do have an issue with those who think it just stays there, I believe it progresses well by day 20 I am happy Eric saw p7 too he has done a great job. However it was seen here 10 days ago when many thought the MJO would be stuck in p6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss. Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html Some Mid Atlantic crush jobs on the idv eps with that closed low look. It’s definitely going to get active along the east coast. Eps has a potential costal the middle of next week and the following weekend. I like the the axis of the trough around the 25th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The Control run sees the KU in the pattern for the 1st period highlighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Hearing the weeklies look like Feb 15. Considering that we are going into 7 / 8 / 1 / 2 ( All cold phases in the heart of winter ) , it`s very believable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Hearing the weeklies look like Feb 15. Considering we are going into 7 / 8 / 1 / 2 ( All cold phases in the heart of winter ) , it`s very believable. Weeklies out this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Weeklies out this early? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: Yes. Cool If we get a run through 7/8/1/2 we should really be in business here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The eps went towards the GEFS with the -epo ridging. That’s a real cold look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I believe the Canadian GEM just became the first model this season to show the mandatory sub-zero fantasy (equivalent to those HECS that never happen). This for Thurs. 1/23 at -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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