PoTown Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This is true, if I could I would say the Mid Hudson Bridge is the cut off that would be close to perfect. (Hyde Park is just a few miles north of the bridge) The difference between Poughkeepsie and say Kingston is huge...Poughkeepsie is more in the Upton envelope, prediction wise, where as Kingston is definitely Albany...it's only 30 miles but man it's a world of difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoTown Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 ….and maybe I'm trying to squeeze into the Metro forum because there's really not a lot of interest in the Mid Hudson Valley...I mean where is there a forum for the valley from Croton to Hudson. I chase snow, I chase storms, I live it, and I really dig it. Thanks for the feed back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah but the weather is different in there in terms of snow. ANd further north, my son is at Adirondack park doing research and there is snow OTG up there, I guess there is all winter....that really is upstate and higher elevation....But I always considered Dutchess county part of the area.. Dutchess County is nothing like adirondack park climo wise but it's also nothing like NYC. NYC is the absolute worst part in the state and really in the entire region for snow due to the ocean influence plus urban heating influence (places to the west and even in recent winters east of the city do better) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 11:27 PM, Snow88 said: Definitely next week but winter is looking to return by MLK week. 68 was a popular number regionally. The max in Smithtown was also 68. I spent the day in Oakland, NJ where it was quite nice. I would consider anything past Montreal to be outside of the NYC Metro area. Plenty of room for PoTown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Honeshly anywhere of white plains New York is outside of New York City. Their weather is just different especially Yorktown heights and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Well the Euro just came in much colder with a weaker surface low and stronger high pressure to our North 4 to 6 in on the clown Maps for all the big cities from Philly to Boston and the northwest suburbs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, binbisso said: Well the Euro just came in much colder with a weaker surface low and stronger high pressure to our North 4 to 6 in on the clown Maps for all the big cities from Philly to Boston and the northwest suburbs Euro folds again to the gfs 3 times this season that has happened 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Eps also followed suit The 2 other storms trended more progressive as we got closer. Is this going to do the same ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps also followed suit The 2 other storms trended more progressive as we got closer. Is this going to do the same ? Way too much time to be locking in solutions. This is thread the needle. Allot has to go right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Way too much time to be locking in solutions. This is thread the needle. Allot has to go right. Gfs just doubled down on the colder solution lol Yes it's far away but the Euro has been following the GFS all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Gfs just doubled down on the colder solution lol Yes it's far away but the Euro has been following the GFS all winter. No one and I mean no one wants this more then me. Anything plowable (3”+) would be a dream come true as I just took the head role on the snow removal. I would consider this a bonus if it happens before we see a full scale pattern change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: No one and I mean no one wants this more then me. Anything plowable (3”+) would be a dream come true as I just took the head role on the snow removal. I would consider this a bonus if it happens before we see a full scale pattern change. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 48 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: No one and I mean no one wants this more then me. Anything plowable (3”+) would be a dream come true as I just took the head role on the snow removal. I would consider this a bonus if it happens before we see a full scale pattern change. It's a pretty classic setup a 1047 MB high pressure is tough to move out in mid January. I don't think the models are going to have a tough time with this one still have about 48 hours before the shortwave gets into better sampling area off the northwest coast. Also the G EFS wants to transfer the low south of us which could keep precipitation more on the Frozen side even down to the coast but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro folds again to the gfs 3 times this season that has happened good news 88 but still a ways to go here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +10.0[42.6]. Should be +8.0[40.4] by the 21st. 41* here at 6am. 45* by 10am. 50* by 1pm. 48* at 2pm. 48* still at 3pm. For the 18th., the putative snow amounts are: GFS 6", EURO 5", CMC 3". GFS is back AN 1/24---1/28 at a measly +1. Was showing way BN a day ago. What happened? Here our only significant precipitation event (18th) coincides with a rise in the T and THK. I note that a few posts beyond, someone is already singing the praises of Feb. Despite this, from the 06Z GFS we get that the period 17th---29th will average 23degs., or 9degs. BN! If you believe this run, the MTD will be just +1.8 by the 30th. This better show up in subsequent charts like the one here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Dutchess County is nothing like adirondack park climo wise but it's also nothing like NYC. NYC is the absolute worst part in the state and really in the entire region for snow due to the ocean influence plus urban heating influence (places to the west and even in recent winters east of the city do better) Never did I say that Adirondack Park climate was like NYC or even Dutchess County. Just reporting an observation. In fact the post is implicit that it isn't. NYC is not the worst place for snow in the region either; parts of it aren't, parts of it are ok. The coastal regions aren't, but the Bronx and even parts of SI sometimes do better than the rest of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: good news 88 but still a ways to go here Yep longs way to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yep longs way to go We have hope. It's cold again today, though it is supposed to warm up Wed again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 We have made it to 70 and above for each winter month since 2015. Top 5 warmest temperatures in December and January. A new record warmest in February at 80 degrees. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1998 76 0 2 2001 74 0 3 2006 72 0 - 1982 72 0 - 1946 72 0 4 2015 71 0 - 2013 71 0 - 1984 71 0 5 1978 70 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2020 70 19 - 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: We have hope. It's cold again today, though it is supposed to warm up Wed again. I suppose it's all relative. Much colder today than this past freak of a weekend but still running about 10 degrees above normal today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of a warmer than normal January. Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis. However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal? Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint. Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I suppose it's all relative. Much colder today than this past freak of a weekend but still running about 10 degrees above normal today. feels frigid out there at 38 degrees. You know winter's been bad when that's the case. Let's hope the weekend system works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Anyone with more knowledge than an average weenie like me?! Is there a way saturdays storm could turn into a full blown coastal snowstorm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, danstorm said: Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis. However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal? Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint. Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10? Dan, I plug in scenarios that include record values, which leads to a higher variance/lower z-value. The percentage is conservative, but this approach takes out some of the noise when model runs vary widely and when there's a lot of time left in a given month. However, I am looking at an alternative with somewhat relaxed assumptions that might be more realistic in terms of quantifying things. For example, using the current and forecast temperatures through January 15, January 16-31 would need to average just under 23.0° to have a normal outcome. Since 1869, 9% of NYC's cases met that standard. The alternative approach shows about a 14% probability (the one I'm using above shows a 23% probability with the 0z guidance). Also, with the ongoing warming, even the historic probabilities may be high relative to what's realistic today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I guess the general public outside this forum will be happy with a lower heating bill. The period since December 23rd was the 2nd warmest on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2007-01-12 45.2 0 2 2020-01-12 42.9 0 3 2016-01-12 42.4 0 4 1983-01-12 42.2 0 5 2006-01-12 42.1 0 - 1998-01-12 42.1 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +10.0[42.6]. Should be +8.0[40.4] by the 21st. 41* here at 6am. For the 18th., the putative snow amounts are: GFS 6", EURO 5", CMC 3". GFS is back AN 1/24---1/28 at a measly +1. Was showing way BN a day ago. What happened? I think the colder air delay now matches the MJO plot and delayed effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I guess the general public outside this forum will be happy with a lower heating bill. The period since December 23rd was the 2nd warmest on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2007-01-12 45.2 0 2 2020-01-12 42.9 0 3 2016-01-12 42.4 0 4 1983-01-12 42.2 0 5 2006-01-12 42.1 0 - 1998-01-12 42.1 0 I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Anyone with more knowledge than an average weenie like me?! Is there a way saturdays storm could turn into a full blown coastal snowstorm? Novice here also but I believe the answer you are looking for is YES but that would also depend on your definition of a "full blown coastal snowstorm ".It appears to me that right now a few inches are on the table but I think with 5 days to go and so much uncertainty the entire buffet from rain- ice or snow even possibly is currently on the table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 We can clearly see the MJO moving into p7 and then p8. p7 alone in Jan gives you this. You all know what p 8 / 1 in Feb give you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed. Amazing Big differences between what the forum and the general public consider to be a good winter. I guess the 15-16 and 16-17 winters would be considered a perfect compromise. Many of us got our 40 inch snowfall seasons. While the general public had their 40 degree winter with lower heating bills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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