January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wonder what’s causing the EPS to back off the -EPO vs the GEFS and CMC?

 

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? 

Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

New all-time January record highs in Boston and Providence.

 

Bridgeport also had a January record 69 degrees. In fact, prior to today, the earliest Bridgeport had reached 69 degrees was March 8, 1987.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? 

Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

What?

Eps and gefs say get ready for winter starting next week.

[Enigma]

Uptown Afd is a perfect example of professionals not utilizing synoptic experience and common sense. Friday evening is text book quick hitting 2-5 type event, no questions asked. 

[dWave]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The New York City area experienced a second day of record warmth. During the afternoon, the temperature rose to 68 in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon:

lol at cherry blossoms? I know there are a few varieties that can have a 2nd bloom in fall if the conditions are right, but Jan? I'd think the sun isnt strong enough yet regardless of temp.

hit 69, went on a bike ride, felt great albeit it windy at times. Sat under a southern magnolia tree and for a sec felt like I was in South Carolina lol

[EastonSN+]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wonder what’s causing the EPS to back off the -EPO vs the GEFS and CMC?

 

Think this makes more sense now with the MJO lag (the 26th)

[NYCweatherNOW]

40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? 

Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

Well we don’t want it too cold to suppress our storms now do we?!

[MJO812]

Changes are coming 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Even in the Midwest the big snows have pretty much bypassed all of the big cities. The seasonal totals since July 1 so far including yesterdays snow at the largest Midwest cities.

Cleveland..........9.5
Indianapolis....10.4
Omaha..............5.6
St. Louis............9.1
Detroit.............14.3
Des Moines.....12.6
Chicago...........12.9
Kansas city........9.3

 

I'm sitting at 16.1 inches right now in what so far has been a pretty dull winter, and I'm ahead of all of them. Also contrary to popular belief several of these cities are surprisingly above their seasonal norms despite the very modest totals. Unless you live in the northern plains or along the great lakes the Midwest is not the snow haven many believe it to be.
 

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Even in the Midwest the big snows have pretty much bypassed all of the big cities. The seasonal totals since July 1 so far including yesterdays snow at the largest Midwest cities.

Cleveland..........9.5
Indianapolis....10.4
Omaha..............5.6
St. Louis............9.1
Detroit.............14.3
Des Moines.....12.6
Chicago...........12.9
Kansas city........9.3

 

I'm sitting at 16.1 inches right now in what so far has been a pretty dull winter, and I'm ahead of all of them. Also contrary to popular belief several of these cities are surprisingly above their seasonal norms despite the very modest totals. Unless you live in the northern plains or along the great lakes the Midwest is not the snow haven many believe it to be.
 

why use july august sept oct nov for snow totals when it does not snow in the big cities those months..

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Even in the Midwest the big snows have pretty much bypassed all of the big cities. The seasonal totals since July 1 so far including yesterdays snow at the largest Midwest cities.

Cleveland.........9.5
Indianapolis....10.4
Omaha............5.6
St. Louis..........9.1
Detroit...........14.3
Des Moines.....12.6
Chicago..........12.9
Kansas city.......9.3

 

I'm sitting at 16.1 inches right now in what so far has been a pretty dull winter, and I'm ahead of all of them. Also contrary to popular belief several of these cities are surprisingly above their seasonal norms despite the very modest totals. Unless you live in the northern plains or along the great lakes the Midwest is not the snow haven many believe it to be.
 

Some of those cities are not big snow locations; Indianapolis, St. Louis, Kansas City...when my late grandparents came  from IN to visit my mother and father in the 50's they were shocked at some of the Newark area snowfalls.....

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Changes are coming 

Going to feel like a shock after these past few days, supposed to make a run into the mid 50's Wed. I hope the cold gets here soon.

[donsutherland1]

Record to historic January warmth prevailed in parts of the region today. Daily records included:

Albany: 67° (old record: 63°, 2018)
Allentown: 68° (old record: 65°, 2018)
Baltimore: 70° (tied record set in 1890 and tied in 2017)
Binghamton: 61° (old record: 60°, 2018)
Boston: 74° (old record: 61°, 1913, 1975 and 2017) ***January Record (old record: 72°, January 26, 1950)***
Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 55°, 2017 and 2018) ***January Record (old record: 68°, January 29, 2002 and January 6, 2007)***
Concord: 67° (old record: 61°, 1885)
Georgetown, DE: 70° (tied daily record set in 1975)
Harrisburg: 69° (old record: 65°, 2017)
Hartford: 70° (old record: 60°, 2018)
Islip: 68° (old record: 58°, 1995 and 2017)
Jacksonville: 84° (old record: 82°, 1949)
Manchester, NH: 60° (tied daily record set in 2018)
New Haven: 69° (old record: 54°, 2018) ***January Record (old record: 66°, January 29, 2002 and January 6, 2007)***
New York City-JFK: 68° (old record: 61°, 2017)
New York City-NYC: 68° (old record: 66°, 2017)
Orlando: 86° (old record: 85°, 1925 and 1972)
Portland: 52° (old record: 51°, 1980 and 2014)
Poughkeepsie: 67° (old record: 62°, 2018)
Providence: 70° (old record: 62°, 2018) ***January Record (old record: 69°, January 14, 1995 and January 29, 2002)***
Salisbury: 70° (old record: 67°, 2017 and 2018)
Savannah: 82° (old record: 81°, 2013)
Scranton: 68° (old record: 66°, 2018)
Syracuse: 65° (old record: 62°, 2018)
White Plains: 66° (old record: 63°, 2017)
Wilmington, DE: 70° (old record: 68°, 2017)
Worcester: 66° (old record: 59°, 2018)

In northern Maine, heavy snow blanketed the region. Through 5 pm, Caribou had picked up 12.0" snow, which surpassed that city's daily record of 7.6" from 1995 (when Islip's previous daily record high temperature for today had been set).

Following this weekend, generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month, but the readings will be cooler than those of this weekend. Nevertheless, readings could continue to average 5°-10° above normal for the remainder of the period through mid-month.
 
Afterward, a pattern change to colder weather with opportunities for snowfall is likely. Near January 20 +/- a few days, colder air will likely return for a period. Afterward, the cold could become sustained, possibly with some Arctic air.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was not available today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.261. That is the highest AO figure since December 22, 2016 when the AO was +4.511.

The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 19. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 11, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.430 (RMM). The January 10-adjusted amplitude was 3.253. The previous highest amplitude in January when the MJO was in Phase 5 was 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February.

Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall.

In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of a warmer than normal January.

 

 

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not everybody on this board lives in NYC and Long Island. NWS Albany discussion below:

This is the NYC Metro Sub-forum. Albany would be Upstate NY/Pennsylvania subform.

[JustinRP37]

It does finally appear that winter is coming to the northeast! It will be especially necessary to get those cold overnight temperatures to allow ski resorts to replenish their bases after the beating that was this weekend. We flew back from Florida yesterday with a layover in Atlanta and that line of storms was very impressive to say the least last night. Fingers cross what is actually modeled start to happen in the LR.

[CIK62]

The THK still rising each time precipitation threatens.       No  CAD, 50/50 Low, or -NAO?       Does not suggest an Arctic onslaught in the T department either.      The Fat Lady just wetting her throat ATT,  but the hounds are already starting to try to sniff out their own tails---if not yet chasing them outright.      HARK!!! the HORNS are ushering in February already.     

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The THK still rising each time precipitation threatens.       No  CAD, 50/50 Low, or -NAO?       Does not suggest an Arctic onslaught in the T department either.      The Fat Lady just wetting her throat ATT,  but the hounds are already starting to try to sniff out their own tails---if not yet chasing them outright.      HARK!!! the HORNS are ushering in February already.     

Can you put this into laymen's terms please. I think I can figure it out; you mean to say there isn't any big cold shot or snow coming any time soon. And beware the ides of March?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

why use july august sept oct nov for snow totals when it does not snow in the big cities those months..

July 1 through to the following June 30 is the universal 12 month period for seasonal snow totals for all reporting stations. Obviously most locations do not revive any snow during the majority of those months. 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not everybody on this board lives in NYC and Long Island. NWS Albany discussion below:

By Saturday morning, the high sets up in a prime position across
Quebec. An upper-level trough and surface low forms across the
Plains and heads eastward. The current track of the surface low is
across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday before the energy transfers
to a coastal low late Saturday into Sunday. Cold and very dry air
ahead of this system raises confidence that wet-bulb effects would
lead to a nearly all snow event. It is possible that warm air aloft
brings a brief transition to sleet/freezing rain and/or rain from
near the Capital Region south; however, confidence on this is low.
While this is several days out, good ensemble agreement led to
raising the PoPs to likely. A plowable snow is possible.

The area NWS Albany covers is not part of this subforum

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The area NWS Albany covers is not part of this subforum

Dutchess county is certainly part of this subforum. I'm 75 miles north of NYC, not near buffalo. 

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Dutchess county is certainly part of this subforum. I'm 75 miles north of NYC, not near buffalo. 

Agreed.  Dutchess County is fair game in here like it or not.  

[weatherpruf]

19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Agreed.  Dutchess County is fair game in here like it or not.  

Yeah but the weather is different in there in terms of snow. ANd further north, my son is at Adirondack park doing research and there is snow OTG up there, I guess there is all winter....that really is upstate and higher elevation....But I always considered Dutchess county part of the area..

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? 

Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

I think guys on here really latched onto an extreme pattern change on a 70 degree weekend

The truth is, even our colder patterns have been bad

Too many people salivating for a front end dump from a cutter next weekend. That was December. Frankly, yawn, especially if you live surrounded by concrete.

Last winter was crappy. The winter before had an extended crappy period but was saved by tail end storms. Jury still out here...but fast forward through this upcoming week of +10 and we are at 1/20 with nothing to show for it.

 

44F at 1030pm. Still 9 degrees above the normal high for the day.

 

 

 

 

 

[PoTown]

Dutchess County and specifically Poughkeepsie is part of the Metro Forum.  Although I am new to this forum,  I have posted on other boards that include the Metro area.  Never an issue. Although included in the most extreme southern part of KALB, it is WABC, WNBC, WCBS, and so on that covers this area...not upstate nor western NY.

[WarrenCtyWx]

Is there a northernmost point that we can consider to be part of the Metro area?

[HVSnowLover]

GFS looking colder and flatter so far for Saturday, interesting it's not trending toward the Euro

Ends up similar to 18Z, started off colder but was also a little slower. I still think the signal on the GFS setup would be screaming front end thump but from what I've seen the Euro is not as favorable

[PoTown]

I would say anything north of Dutchess and Ulster Counties is out of the Metro Forum.  

[Barman49]

I respect Bluewave immensely but I think he needs a good Miller A.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, PoTown said:

I would say anything north of Dutchess and Ulster Counties is out of the Metro Forum.  

I always thought anything outside of Uptons forecasting zone is not really considered the Metro Forum. Ulster and Dutchess are tricky geographically, certainly climo wise they are closer to Albany than NYC

[NEG NAO]

GFS staying consistent