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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Anyway this warm weather is nice but Saturday looks like a snowstorm to us. Maybe ending as some rain regardless looks like the biggest snowfall of the year let’s gooooo

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Saturday never was/is a snowstorm setup south of New England. When the GFS is the only model showing a snowstorm, something is wrong.....

A few inches isnt out of the question.  Gfs isnt the only one showing that .

 

Euro got colder 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Still the biggest snowfall of the season snowstorm followed by heavy rain is coming

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The 68 so far at ISP is only one off the January all-time high of 69 degrees.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2002 69 0
2 2007 68 0
3 1995 67 0
4 1974 66 0
- 1967 66 0
5 2008 64 0
- 1998 64 0
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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 68 so far at ISP is only one off the January all-time high of 69 degrees.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2002 69 0
2 2007 68 0
3 1995 67 0
4 1974 66 0
- 1967 66 0
5 2008 64 0
- 1998 64 0

2002 eh? Yikes...lets hope that one stands

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Upton is not buying snow for Saturday, no CAD evident, new disco: 



Temperatures will be remaining above normal through Thursday, then
return to more normal levels Thursday night into Sunday as Arctic
high pressure builds toward the region.

Any precipitation with the waves will be mainly in the form of rain.
For the system next weekend there is some uncertainty as to how long
a period of light snow will occur before a transition to all rain
Saturday afternoon. This will be dependent on how quickly the cold
air is scoured out as high pressure moves east. At this time there
is no cold air damming evident and the flow does remain progressive.
Also there is uncertainty with temperature profiles with the ECMWF
warmer than the GFS. With these uncertainties will keep the
probabilities at chance.
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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The New York City area experienced a second day of record warmth. During the afternoon, the temperature rose to 68 in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon:

NYBG01122020-5.jpg

NYBG01122020-7.jpg

NYBG01122020-3.jpg

NYBG01122020-8.jpg

NYBG01122020-9.jpg

Excellent photos Don. Did you use a phone for these? It's amazing how clear photos are today. Back in the day I had to wrestle with 35mm and take rolls of film to get maybe one good shot of a guy holding a fish....did a few covers for The Fisherman. Never was much of a photographer. Or anything else, really....

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Excellent photos Don. Did you use a phone for these? It's amazing how clear photos are today. Back in the day I had to wrestle with 35mm and take rolls of film to get maybe one good shot of a guy holding a fish....did a few covers for The Fisherman. Never was much of a photographer. Or anything else, really....

No. I used a camera. Phones have improved greatly, though.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Upton is not buying snow for Saturday, no CAD evident, new disco: 


Temperatures will be remaining above normal through Thursday, then
return to more normal levels Thursday night into Sunday as Arctic
high pressure builds toward the region.

Any precipitation with the waves will be mainly in the form of rain.
For the system next weekend there is some uncertainty as to how long
a period of light snow will occur before a transition to all rain
Saturday afternoon. This will be dependent on how quickly the cold
air is scoured out as high pressure moves east. At this time there
is no cold air damming evident and the flow does remain progressive.
Also there is uncertainty with temperature profiles with the ECMWF
warmer than the GFS. With these uncertainties will keep the
probabilities at chance.

Not everybody on this board lives in NYC and Long Island. NWS Albany discussion below:

By Saturday morning, the high sets up in a prime position across
Quebec. An upper-level trough and surface low forms across the
Plains and heads eastward. The current track of the surface low is
across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday before the energy transfers
to a coastal low late Saturday into Sunday. Cold and very dry air
ahead of this system raises confidence that wet-bulb effects would
lead to a nearly all snow event. It is possible that warm air aloft
brings a brief transition to sleet/freezing rain and/or rain from
near the Capital Region south; however, confidence on this is low.
While this is several days out, good ensemble agreement led to
raising the PoPs to likely. A plowable snow is possible.
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