NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Ill take nothing on the ground in NYC post storm if I was putting $$ down taking into consideration all of what falls will be washed away by the changeover to rain ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ?????? No that’s not what he is saying. When you’re between phases you can still have effects of the previous phase. You can have a bit of lag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ?????? Go back and read the papers that were posted about MJO lags. Why do you think the CPC has something called lagged composites. The changes take time to manifest especially when we are seeing record amplitude. Short range analysis is fine if you take all the factors and biases into account. There is often overlap during transitions from one phase to the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 At this time I’d rather have the GFS show me snow than the euro. Snow is coming guys for sure! The question is it going to be huge amounts or just average is still to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Go back and read the papers that were posted about MJO lags. Why do you think the CPC has something called lagged composites. The changes take time to manifest especially when we are seeing record amplitude. Short range analysis is fine if you take all the factors and biases into account. There is often overlap during transitions from one phase to the other. Great educational nugget for me, thank you. And my sincere request for everyone: Please keep posts respectable and don't troll. This isn't the place for it. I am here to learn and expand my knowledge. Not here to witness childish drama. Thanks. We all share a passion for weather and let's keep that front and center. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Great educational nugget for me, thank you. And my sincere request for everyone: Please keep posts respectable and don't troll. This isn't the place for it. I am here to learn and expand my knowledge. Not here to witness childish drama. Thanks. We all share a passion for weather and let's keep that front and center. This paper discusses the lag with the MJO. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0& This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites. This increase in East Coast troughing is also associated with cold air advection in the Northeast, enhancing baroclinicity (Moon et al. 2012). Given the MJO’s typical phase speed, the 7–10-day lag from phase 6 found by these previous studies is consistent with the contemporaneous signal we see in phases 7 and 8. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: This paper discusses the lag with the MJO. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0& This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites. This increase in East Coast troughing is also associated with cold air advection in the Northeast, enhancing baroclinicity (Moon et al. 2012). Given the MJO’s typical phase speed, the 7–10-day lag from phase 6 found by these previous studies is consistent with the contemporaneous signal we see in phases 7 and 8. Fascinating to say the least, thank you!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Here is a great paper. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0& This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites. Nice article but we don't live in southeastern NE - any article relating to Northern Mid-Atlantic snowstorms ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 65 here, warmest day since Nov 1st which topped out at 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I am not sure why there is so much negativity, almost every model is showing the biggest snowfall of the season next weekend (yes it will change to rain but baby steps) and then after that they get cold. Not every storm will be snow for the coast of course but there are signs of it at least getting more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 todays ao is over plus 4sd and might drop to near neutral around the 20th...same for the nao...that could be a window how ever small for a snowstorm...I thought 1936-37 was a good analog for last year but it might turn out better for this year...January 1936 was a torch...February less of a torch...March was cold..snowfall was light...1936 had a 6" snowfall between warmth on January 20th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: how could this be their was no climate change back in 1936 is it possible temps in winter year to year are variable? Tex Antoine used to call the 1930's 'the dirty 30's...probably because of the dust storms...1932, 1933 and 1937 had had warm January's and winters...1933-34 to 1935-36 were extremely cold...1934 has NYC's coldest temperature...also the hottest June temperature...1936 still has the hottest temperature recorded in NYC at 106 degrees... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Gfs gives the whole area several inches next weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 65 degrees here on the South Shore and it feels like spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs gives the whole area several inches next weekend Need to keep an eye out for a possible transfer further south. If that were the case it would be a MECS for everyone. Still have time for positive trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs gives the whole area several inches next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Whatever that thing is smoking, I want some. :). I think overdone, but I can definitely see araa wide a few inches before switch to rain given the track of the SLP at this juncture. At least we have something to track in the midst of Spring weather in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Whatever that thing is smoking, I want some. :). I think overdone, but I can definitely see araa wide a few inches before switch to rain given the track of the SLP at this juncture. At least we have something to track in the midst of Spring weather in January. I would keep an open mind regarding accumulations - that HP to the north is controlling the whole show if a 50/50 develops in front of it the storm could redevelop to the south as demonstrated by yesterdays CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 47 minutes ago, uncle W said: Tex Antoine used to call the 1930's 'the dirty 30's...probably because of the dust storms...1932, 1933 and 1937 had had warm January's and winters...1933-34 to 1935-36 were extremely cold...1934 has NYC's coldest temperature...also the hottest June temperature...1936 still has the hottest temperature recorded in NYC at 106 degrees... Possibly due to the same things that caused the dustbowl; interesting topic for a dissertation. But it can't be right, as my parents grew up in the 30's and they always told me they walked miles uphill in the deep snow with holes in their shoes to get to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I would keep an open mind regarding accumulations - that HP to the north is controlling the whole show if a 50/50 develops in front of it the storm could redevelop to the south as demonstrated by yesterdays CMC This is also one of the deepest Highs in place ahead of an overrunning event since basically 11/2018. All events since have more or less flipped to sleet immediately due to the air mass being horrible. We are still 2 days though from being able to seriously look at this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Take a look at how much more amped the ridge ahead the system is on the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. The 12z UKMET just joined the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. another reason to keep an open mind - until that stubborn southeast ridge breaks down will be one cutter after another even when it gets colder at least through the end of the month as shown in the longer range on the GFS 12Z - NAO looks to stay positive- AO still stays positive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Take a look at how much more amped the ridge ahead the system is on the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. The 12z UKMET just joined the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. Yeah, 12z GGEM is mostly rain for NYC. Pattern is just in the process of improving, so it might not be good enough yet to prevent a big cutter and mostly rain. Maybe high pressure will be strong enough to give us a decent front end dump though. Obviously still way too early to know. Precip looks to come in friday night, so I think we'll start getting a better idea tuesday night when we get to the 3 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 69 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Take a look at how much more amped the ridge ahead the system is on the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. The 12z UKMET just joined the 12z CMC and 0z Euro. Things don't really get more favorable until 1/20 and beyond. However I still wouldn't rule out a front end dump on the 18th given the strong high ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: 69 degrees 67 here and it feels like spring. Just opened all the windows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: 67 here and it feels like spring. Just opened all the windows. Down to 68 (68.3). Islip is at 68. FRG down 1 degree 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: Down to 68 (68.3). Islip is at 68. FRG down 1 degree 67. 67 here, which is our high for the day and weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It wont hold but a very impressive +34 for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Anyway this warm weather is nice but Saturday looks like a snowstorm to us. Maybe ending as some rain regardless looks like the biggest snowfall of the year let’s gooooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Record breaker today? For the island yes, records shattered islip old record was 58, now its 68...the park also set a record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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