Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Wow Severe Thunderstorm Warning in SW NJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 This is officially the warmest midnight to 6am hourly temperatures of all-time at Newark in January. Newark has been at 65 to 66 degrees with 3 new hourly records and two ties. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&month=jan&var=max_tmpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7am...67 dew 63, rain/tstorms incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Never in my lifetime, and not something I hoped I'd ever see. Kind of scary when you think about what could follow in years to come. Sooner or later have to figure we get a stretch like this in summer when the consequences will be worse than just wrecking a winter month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: IGNORE THEM! and do yourself a favor, BLOCK THEM like I have. It will save you the headache. For all we know these people could be the moderators/administrators just trying to stir a debate lol. Totally agree. Some people are here just to share facts as they are, like those facts or not! Other people are here just to celebrate that it’s going to be warm, or specifically that there is no chance of snow simply to disappoint other people. Pathetic. At this point I have so many people on ignore that some days I’m missing entire pages! Well worth it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Ha! Look at that! A line of thunderstorms broke up before reaching the NYC Metro area. Can't even get a good thunderstorm in January! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 As much as I am not a snow lover... Ive seen this many times over the years. Winter isn't over here until the end of March. At ANY time we can get a major snowfall here in the next 2 months and it's more likely than not.Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Pretty heavy rain and strong gusts came through about an hour ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Front moving through shortly-one last burst of rain here 55 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Through 7 am, new daily record high temperatures were set in cities including Albany, Allentown, Boston, Bridgeport, Harrisburg, Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Providence, and Worcester. The sun will return over the next hour or two in the New York Metro area. However, the warmest readings of January are now ending. The January 20-31 period looks to be colder than normal overall with a mean temperature around 28° +/- 2° for the period as a whole for New York City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, TriPol said: Ha! Look at that! A line of thunderstorms broke up before reaching the NYC Metro area. Can't even get a good thunderstorm in January! lol I was wondering where the hell did it go. Vanished at the Hudson river. Does look like just north of the city may of got a little something. At the GWB though it just fell apart. Temp is 66 but dewpoint falling into the 50s, with a few breaks in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, tek1972 said: As much as I am not a snow lover... Ive seen this many times over the years. Winter isn't over here until the end of March. At ANY time we can get a major snowfall here in the next 2 months and it's more likely than not. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk We have never seen a prolonged stretch of warm weather like this. We have never seen temperatures close to 70° at night in the middle of January. walk outside right now in shorts and a T-shirt sun is coming out to our west… You have never seen anything like this before on January 11 I don’t know what the rest of the winter holds, but this stretch of January weather has been simply unprecedented. It is time to stop comparing this to previous warm winters and acknowledge we are in a new league now. The cooler week ahead features temperatures at least 10° above normal with two days in the mid 50s. That is the big cool down coming tonight. Unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It literally feels like a June morning. 66F right now with 60 dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 This MJO just keeps getting more extreme. You can see all the guidance shifting to more of a phase 7 look around the 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: This MJO just keeps getting more extreme. You can see all the guidance shifting to more of a phase 7 look around the 20th. That should eventually get to phase 8 instead of curling into the COD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I don't get what all the panic is this sub is about...I just looked at the almanac and y'all have been like +1 until yesterday...normal NYC fluctuations, and yes they are quite warm at times but that's what the new climate looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, dWave said: lol I was wondering where the hell did it go. Vanished at the Hudson river. Does look like just north of the city may of got a little something. At the GWB though it just fell apart. Temp is 66 but dewpoint falling into the 50s, with a few breaks in the clouds. May have been here. I got .25”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 29 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: We have never seen a prolonged stretch of warm weather like this. We have never seen temperatures close to 70° at night in the middle of January. walk outside right now in shorts and a T-shirt sun is coming out to our west… You have never seen anything like this before on January 11 I don’t know what the rest of the winter holds, but this stretch of January weather has been simply unprecedented. It is time to stop comparing this to previous warm winters and acknowledge we are in a new league now. The cooler week ahead features temperatures at least 10° above normal with two days in the mid 50s. That is the big cool down coming tonight. Unprecedented I've seen winters like this before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 That’s a great GFS 6z run as far is this weekend shows warning snows everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: That’s a great GFS 6z run as far is this weekend shows warning snows everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Why are you posting long range snowfall maps beyond the range of the GFS? huh ? I posted an hour 162 map - less then a week away - plus GFS as been very consistent with this threat for several days now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 At 8:51 am, the temperature reached 67° in Central Park. That broke the daily record of 66°, which was set in 2017. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS still has a cold bias at that time range. You can see the Euro had less. Looks like a front end thump potential than change to rain scenario at the coast. The storm still ends up going to our west. The euro has had an amped bias all winter. Can it be right? Sure but look what happened with the last 2 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Those GFS snowfall maps have been terrible beyond a few days all season. And the Euro has also been terrible beyond 5 days. Heck , every model has been awful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: Those GFS snowfall maps have been terrible beyond a few days all season. they will not show exact totals BUT still gives you an idea that there is a threat for accumulating snow - since you are critical of their output - what exactly do you predict for next weekend ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: The Euro and EPS wasn’t amped enough with today’s storm. Remember when it had the warm front getting stuck in CNJ last week. No clue what has happened with the Euro and EPS but ever since the upgrade, both has been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will be transitioning from phase 5 to phase 6 over the next week. So the SE ridge will still be a player. This means that the storm will probably front end thump to rain. The GFS and CMC will have too much of a cold bias at those ranges. So the snowfall forecasts will probably be to heavy. Transitioning from 6 -7 this weekend on the 18th -19th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: they will not show exact totals BUT still gives you an idea that there is a threat for accumulating snow - since you are critical of their output - what exactly do you predict for next weekend ?? Ill take nothing on the ground in NYC post storm if I was putting $$ down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 46 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: I don't get what all the panic is this sub is about...I just looked at the almanac and y'all have been like +1 until yesterday...normal NYC fluctuations, and yes they are quite warm at times but that's what the new climate looks like. In December that was true, but so far January is about a +9, not even factoring in today. Personally I'd just like temperatures to get back close to seasonal. It's plenty cold enough this time of year, especially in the HV where I reside, for snow if we could just get back to seasonal norms for a nice stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: There is still a lag with the MJO. So there are often some lingering elements from the previous phase near transitions. so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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