the_other_guy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 hours ago, BlizzardNYC said: I don’t know about anyone else, but the pattern has been lock in since early December, and I don’t expect a snowy forecast to prevail. My reasoning is as follows. We have had less than a nickel and dime event in early / mid November. We have since warmed early dec through January. We now face record warmth in early to mid January. Looking at the long range it appears you can not trust anything past D5 and the models look warm through-out with a front end thump followed by rain. Listen I love snow but the writing is on the wall and it’s happening n durning solar minimum. Simplistic, but valid points cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year. My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018. That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: Something big is brewing. typically the models sniff big storms out well in advance. hearing January is dead calls...pure & utter folly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Simplistic, but valid points cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year. My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018. That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover. Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history? 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Allentown recently reached 68 degrees for a new daily high temperature. The old daily record was 66 degrees, which was set in 1975. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 10 hours ago, bluewave said: This is another case of the SE ridge surpassing expectations in situations that allow for it. While not as extreme as what happened in February 2018, this is close to the record 500 mb height for January at OKX. Got in on the 00Z ob. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 46 minutes ago, danstorm said: This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover. Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history? I do....saw a lot of them. Never with this much warmth and so sustained though. 80's were paltry, but not this warm.70's weren't great either. And neither were most of the 90's. We've had a good run from 2001-2016, with a few lean years in there. Been meh ever since for a lot of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Back up to 64° here currently...Tomorrow will see temps dropping towards the 30's by midnight avoiding an even greater departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing Then you clearly aren't paying any attention. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 GFS is wild for next weekend, storm starts out below freezing with 2-4 inches of snow (6+ for the northern suburbs) and then NYC/LI end up in the 50s. Then gets really cold behind the storm, this may be the pattern changer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 51 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I do....saw a lot of them. Never with this much warmth and so sustained though. 80's were paltry, but not this warm.70's weren't great either. And neither were most of the 90's. We've had a good run from 2001-2016, with a few lean years in there. Been meh ever since for a lot of us. It's only been 1 winter and 1 month that has been awful after many good years in a row. At least in terms of referring to snowfall but personally I don't mind the warmth that much, I really care mainly about snow amounts rather than sustained cold (it's fairly rare to have a sustained snowpack at the coast anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Simplistic, but valid points cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year. My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018. That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing No sign of changing ? What are you looking at ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No sign of changing ? What are you looking at ? Must be a D10 gfs run... give it a break already pattern has been locked in since the beginning of December. Stevie wonder saw this coming!!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No sign of changing ? What are you looking at ? We could also go into a cold-cutter-cold pattern too like the GFS shows. That's the risk you run without blocking. Still thinking the sustained cold/snow pattern waits until February with shades of 14/15 showing up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 ewr is one degree below the record high of 67 at midnight. ridiculous 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Current temp is 66 here, very impressive for a nighttime temperature in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Rtd208 said: Current temp is 66 here, very impressive for a nighttime temperature in January. It's in the 60s up to Albany, I don't think I've ever seen this level of warmth at night in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It's in the 60s up to Albany, I don't think I've ever seen this level of warmth at night in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It's in the 60s up to Albany, I don't think I've ever seen this level of warmth at night in January Never in my lifetime, and not something I hoped I'd ever see. Kind of scary when you think about what could follow in years to come. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The next 8 days are still averaging 42degs., or 10degs. AN. (used 68/42 for today) Month to date is +8.7[41.5]. Should be +9.2[42.0] by the 20th. 62* here at 6am. 63* by 9am. 64* by 11am. 65* at Noon. 66* at 1pm. This was the peak, lasted to 3pm. 61* at 5pm. 56* by 8pm. All models have a little snow on the 18th.----'SnOw What' CMC probably coldest for next 10 days. EURO loaded with 50's.(+7 for next 10 days) GFS: who cares.(it is -2 on the next 17 days giving the month a +2.2 by the 29th.) The first 21 days of the calendar winter have averaged +8.7, with just one BN day. Who predicted that would be the case. Not I. At any rate here is the next 16 days, averaged out. Worth the wait? Who knows. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Pretty decent line of showers/storms w/gusty winds about to move through the area. Current temp is still 66 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 63F at 6am on 1/12 That really says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: It's only been 1 winter and 1 month that has been awful after many good years in a row. At least in terms of referring to snowfall but personally I don't mind the warmth that much, I really care mainly about snow amounts rather than sustained cold (it's fairly rare to have a sustained snowpack at the coast anyway) Snowfall has been unimpressive since 2016 IMBY. Many of the other storms since were misses out here, some by quite a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 hours ago, Snow88 said: No sign of changing ? What are you looking at ? The cutter for next weekend that has been like every other storm this season...and last season What are you looking at? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, jfklganyc said: The cutter for next weekend that has been like every other storm this season. What are you looking at? No one said that storm will be a snowstorm for us. Everyone is talking about the period after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Are people trolling with these winters over posts ? I don't think so Ant. The super warm temps have got everyone pessimistic. Get us some cold and a few inches, even after a front end dump that turns to rain, and people will fell better about things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I don't think so Ant. The super warm temps have got everyone pessimistic. Get us some cold and a few inches, even after a front end dump that turns to rain, and people will fell better about things. We all miss the winters from the early to mid 2000s. But canceling winter on Jan 12 is foolish considering what the ensembles are showing moving forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We all miss the winters from the early to mid 2000s. But canceling winter on Jan 12 is foolish considering what the ensembles are showing moving forward. I have mentioned this to you before. Ignore some of these posts and don't reply, they do it to get a rise out of people and derail the forum and you fall for it every single time. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Rtd208 said: I have mentioned this to you before. Ignore some of these posts and don't reply, they do it to get a rise out of people and derail the forum and you fall for it every single time. Yes but it's annoying seeing it over and over again every single winter . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yes but it's annoying seeing it over and over again every single winter . IGNORE THEM! and do yourself a favor, BLOCK THEM like I have. It will save you the headache. For all we know these people could be the moderators/administrators just trying to stir a debate lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: IGNORE THEM! and do yourself a favor, BLOCK THEM like I have. It will save you the headache. For all we know these people could be the moderators/administrators just trying to stir a debate lol. I only wish that ignored posters posts didn't show up when someone quotes them. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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