jm1220 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Not even the most pessimistic scientists are saying winter will go away. Not any time soon. But yeah, it's getting warmer. Climate change is certainly part of it but we’re not doomed to warm winters and little snow from now on because of it. The overall pattern has switched back to a Nina heavy pattern with the SE ridge and western trough favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: when did I say I was taking it seriously ? While you hope we get a favorable storm track for heavy snows at the coast, just pointing out a colder pattern coming around the 20th isn’t a guarantee. That’s why storm tracks are so important. Late last January with a similar 500 mb pattern we only got some light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It shows it at 240 You cant be serious taking a 282 map seriously. Models can't agree on something 84 hours out imagine 282... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: While you hope we get a favorable storm track for heavy snows at the coast, just pointing out a colder pattern coming around the 20th isn’t a guarantee. That’s why storm tracks are so important. Late last January with a similar 500 mb pattern we only got some light snows. Yep. We very well could swing and Miss. let’s hope for better luck this time. Last January we missed a storm to our south that crushed DCA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like we have a chance to beat both those readings the next few days when the site updates. The preliminary amplitude for 1/10 is just in. It was 3.253. That would set a new January record for cases when the MJO was in Phase 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Back on track...67/44 temp split today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 55 minutes ago, Mersky said: Sir could you explain the records broken today that dated back to 1890???? Cow farts perhaps??? That 1890 had some record temperatures that were toppled today does not in any way negate the observed ongoing warming associated with anthropogenic climate change. Since 1895, the Northeast has been warming about 0.1°F per decade. That figure is skewed low on account of the aerosol-induced cooling that took place during the 1970s. The rate of warming has accelerated afterward and has averaged 0.8°F per decade since 1980. Globally 2019 was the second warmest year on record (Copernicus) and almost certainly will rank as the second warmest when the GISS data comes out next week. The 2010-19 decade was easily the warmest on record globally. The synoptic pattern for today was quite similar to those present on January 11, 1890 and January 11, 1975. Both cases featured highly anomalous ridges in the East. January 11, 1890 and January 11, 1975: Within the context of a warming climate, similar warm patterns can produce warmer outcomes than had been the case in the past. There is a climate change thread for more specific discussion of climate change and climate change-related issues. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Today saw readings rise into the 60s and even 70s across much of the region. Charleston, WV topped out at 80°. Daily record high temperatures included: Albany: 67° (old record: 57°, 1975) Allentown: 67° (old record: 66°, 1975) Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 62°, 2018) Bangor: 55° (old record: 52°, 1983) Boston: 70° (old record: 62°, 1975) Bridgeport: 59° (old record: 56°, 1975) Burlington: 59° (old record: 56°, 1980) Charleston, WV: 80° (old record: 71°, 2018) Cleveland: 70° (old record: 67°, 1890) Concord: 61° (old record: 58°, 1980) Dayton, OH: 67° (old record: 59°, 2013, 2017, and 2018) Erie, PA: 71° (old record: 66°, 1890) Georgetown, DE: 73° (old record: 67°, 2008 and 2014) Hartford: 68° (old record: 60°, 1983) Lexington, KY: 75° (old record: 66°, 2018) Louisville: 70° (old record: 69°, 1890) New York City-LGA: 66° (old record: 62°, 1975) New York City-NYC: 69° (old record: 63°, 1975) Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1975) Norfolk: 76° (old record: 75°, 1890 and 1974) Parkersburg, WV (old record: 67°, 2018) ***Tied January record of 78° set on January 25, 1950*** Pittsburgh: 70° (old record: 68°, 1890) Poughkeepsie: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975) Portland: 63° (old record: 54°, 1983 and 2017) Providence: 65° (old record: 61°, 1975) Richmond: 72° (tied record set in 1974 and tied in 1975) Salisbury: 72° (old record: 69°, 2014) White Plains: 65° (old record: 57°, 1975) Wilmington, DE: 69° (old record: 66°, 1975) Worcester: 63° (old record: 58°, 1924) This exceptional warmth is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°. Daily precipitation records were set in parts of the Great Lakes region. Daily records through 7 pm included: Detroit: 1.95" (old daily record: 0.96", 1905) ***New January daily record: Old monthly record: 1.76", January 12, 1908*** Indianapolis: 1.38" (old daily record: 1.16", 2005) South Bend, IN: 2.34" (old daily record: 0.70", 1895) ***2nd highest January daily amount*** Toledo: 1.21" (old daily record: 0.76", 2013) Tomorrow will likely see additional near record to record warmth for a second day. A squall line with high winds, briefly heavy rain, and perhaps thunder could move through parts of the region early in the day. Afterward, winds will likely gust to 40 mph and 50 mph throughout the day. Daily records for January 12 are: Atlantic City: 67°, 2017 Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018 Hartford: 60°, 2018 Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017 New York City: 66°, 2017 Newark: 67°, 2017 Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018 White Plains: 63°, 2017 Following this weekend, generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month, but the readings will be cooler than those of this weekend. Nevertheless, readings could continue to average 5°-10° above normal for the remainder of the period through mid-month. Afterward, a pattern change to colder weather with opportunities for snowfall is likely. Near January 20 +/- a few days, colder air will likely return for a period. Afterward, the cold could become sustained, possibly with some Arctic air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.356. The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 19. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 10, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 3.253 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 3.033. Today's preliminary amplitude is the highest on record for all cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 during January. The prior record amplitude was 3.131, which was set on January 11, 1986. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 78% probability of a warmer than normal January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Please move the climate change stuff to the climate change thread. The climate change posts here will be removed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 55 cloudy and almost feels muggy out but kinda comfortable at the same time. Can’t wait for the big snows coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Strong sea breeze forced an early High for the day of 63* for me at 11:15am. Spent the PM between 53-55. NB: The GEM has a foot of snow here in exactly one week, with the potential for 35", since the available LE is 3.5" With all sorts of crazy SD's floating around for various atmospheric parameters---this could just be another one the GEM has sniffed out before the other models. Or maybe it is just snorting things out. Try that w/o the letter 'n' LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I don’t know about anyone else, but the pattern has been lock in since early December, and I don’t expect a snowy forecast to prevail. My reasoning is as follows. We have had less than a nickel and dime event in early / mid November. We have since warmed early dec through January. We now face record warmth in early to mid January. Looking at the long range it appears you can not trust anything past D5 and the models look warm through-out with a front end thump followed by rain. Listen I love snow but the writing is on the wall and it’s happening n durning solar minimum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, BlizzardNYC said: I don’t know about anyone else, but the pattern has been lock in since early December, and I don’t expect a snowy forecast to prevail. My reasoning is as follows. We have had less than a nickel and dime event in early / mid November. We have since warmed early dec through January. We now face record warmth in early to mid January. Looking at the long range it appears you can not trust anything past D5 and the models look warm through-out with a front end thump followed by rain. Listen I love snow but the writing is on the wall and it’s happen durning solar minimum. What looks warm ? The pattern is going to get colder. Mjo is going to become favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What looks warm ? The pattern is going to get colder. Mjo is going to become favorable. Ant, how long has the pattern looked to become colder?, and please don’t take this as a shot to you or anyone because I love the cold and snow I thrive on it but it doesn’t seem likely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Ant, how long has the pattern looked to become colder?, and please don’t take this as a shot to you or anyone because I love the cold and snow I thrive on it but it doesn’t seem likely Bro it’s going to snow! Just let it play out it’s not about pattern it will snow. Just my 2 satoshis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Bro it’s going to snow! Just let it play out it’s not about pattern it will snow. Just my 2 satoshis I guess he's never heard of a backloaded winter. Winter of 2015/16 anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Bro it’s going to snow! Just let it play out it’s not about pattern it will snow. Just my 2 satoshis None of us really knows, not even the most diligent scholars of this stuff, but I would never bet against any snow in the metro area this early. By the end of Feb I might make the bet, but the last two years I would have lost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I guess he's never heard of a backloaded winter. Winter of 2015/16 anyone? think you mean 2014/15, the winter of the nickel and dime events which totaled 50 some inches.....15/16 was one big storm in Jan. and one small one in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Next weekends setup looks like the best chance for a front end thump we've had, of course it may get worse closer to the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 44 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Strong sea breeze forced an early High for the day of 63* for me at 11:15am. Spent the PM between 53-55. NB: The GEM has a foot of snow here in exactly one week, with the potential for 35", since the available LE is 3.5" With all sorts of crazy SD's floating around for various atmospheric parameters---this could just be another one the GEM has sniffed out before the other models. Or maybe it is just snorting things out. Try that w/o the letter 'n' LOL! This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now Yea thats a miracle, I would take what the 18Z GFS showed 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: It's got a chance, if nothing else the high in place should allow for front end snow, if the blocking is strong enough to force redevelopment well to our south then it's a big storm, if not it's snow/ice to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Ant, how long has the pattern looked to become colder?, and please don’t take this as a shot to you or anyone because I love the cold and snow I thrive on it but it doesn’t seem likely What indications are you seeing that its going to be a warm winter the rest of the way ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly My guess is that is at or close to its peak warmth given snowfall totals but yea you can definitely see from the snowfall map the gradient is right over the city. This will change many times anyway in the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend The primary is likely going near or to the lakes, the question is the secondary development, I agree I would lean this is a snow to rain event at best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 next weekend all about Thursday, need that to phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Honestly that front end bout could give us more snow than anything we've seen this winter. Airmass is quite cold so a CAD like inversion wouldn't surprise me and neither would a southward primary adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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