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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Amen, we've only had an inch at a time this winter so a few inches would be like a HECS.  LOL.    Currently partly sunny here and 62.   We've had colder days in April!

Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees.

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As of 3 pm, daily record high temperatures include:

Albany: 66° (old record: 57°, 1975)
Allentown: 67° (old record: 66°, 1975)
Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 62°, 2018)
Boston: 69° (old record: 62°, 1975)
Bridgeport: 57° (old record: 56°, 1975)
Concord: 61° (old record: 58°, 1980)
Dayton, OH: 67° (old record: 59°, 2013, 2017, and 2018)
Erie, PA: 68° (old record: 66°, 1890)
Hartford: 68° (old record: 60°, 1983)
Lexington, KY: 75° (old record: 66°, 2018)
Louisville: 70° (old record: 69°, 1890)
New York City-LGA: 66° (old record: 62°, 1975)
New York City-NYC: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975)
Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1975)
Poughkeepsie: 68° (old record: 63°, 1975)
Portland: 60° (old record: 54°, 1983 and 2017)
Providence: 65° (old record: 61°, 1975)
White Plains: 65° (old record: 57°, 1975)

In addition, daily rainfall records were set in parts of the Great Lakes region. Daily records through 3 pm include:

Detroit: 1.86" (old daily record: 0.96", 1905; old January daily record: 1.76", January 12, 1908)
Indianapolis: 1.32" (old daily record: 1.16", 2005)
South Bend, IN: 2.31" (old daily record: 0.70", 1895)
Toledo: 1.08" (old daily record: 0.76", 2013)

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Under partly sunny skies that lasted until near mid-afternoon before overcast conditions developed, the temperature soared to a record 68° in New York City. Throughout the region, record high temperatures, many set in 1975 when a similar 500 mb pattern prevailed and a storm brought heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes region, were toppled.  Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden early this afternoon:

NYBG01112020-3.jpg

NYBG01112020-1.jpg

NYBG01112020-4.jpg

NYBG01112020-2.jpg

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This may be our first MJO phase 4 to reach 3 SD during January.


&_ACCESS_wind
        2020           1           9   3.0007334     -0.43843362               4   3.0325940     

9BAA5523-228C-4123-B2B9-7E2ABA308786.gif.134ff83ac8b054efc951ea84ac3f2b69.gif

The MJO had an amplitude of 3.131 when in it was in Phase 4 on January 11, 1986. The highest January amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 5 is 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990.

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Did some garden work today. Still have fresh herbs going strong, thyme, rosemary, and some other stuff my wife planted, maybe sage. Have creeping charlie invading the pots. Still not the tomato seedlings I had growing in Dec 2015, but close enough. Blueberries started budding. All very disorienting. Looks like winter will return shortly according to people here. we'll see.

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40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under partly sunny skies that lasted until near mid-afternoon before overcast conditions developed, the temperature soared to a record 68° in New York City. Throughout the region, record high temperatures, many set in 1975 when a similar 500 mb pattern prevailed and a storm brought heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes region, were toppled.  Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden early this afternoon:

NYBG01112020-3.jpg

NYBG01112020-1.jpg

NYBG01112020-4.jpg

NYBG01112020-2.jpg

Camilla in bloom. A southern plant tha hS done quite well in my postage stamp UHI blessed yard. Although Don, mid January is a bit early for them even by souther standards. . 

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22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The MJO had an amplitude of 3.131 when in it was in Phase 4 on January 11, 1986. The highest January amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 5 is 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990.

Looks like we have a chance to beat both those readings the next few days when the site updates.

CE78D8F5-C00E-40B8-A2D1-8BF51BCF7296.gif.5b6f109215bb4074074157e2eaa73dc1.gif

 

 

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12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ????

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe 

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe 

Post the Euro map at hour 282

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23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ????

 

Ensembles begin to correctly pick up the general 500 mb pattern in the day 8-10 range. So I never really pay attention to what the operational GFS shows for an individual storm that far out in time. The NCEP should follow the ECMWF lead and stop running the OP beyond 240 hrs. Notice how the ECMWF only has the control and ensembles day 11-15. And those are often too low skill to be of use that far out in time.

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