EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: These systems rarely deliver much snow to us, a few inches that gets washed away in a hurry. I call a few inches a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I call a few inches a huge win. Amen, we've only had an inch at a time this winter so a few inches would be like a HECS. LOL. Currently partly sunny here and 62. We've had colder days in April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Transient? That would stink. We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks imagine that-we get a crazy -NAO and NC and VA get the snow...I think heads would pop off here if that happened...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Amen, we've only had an inch at a time this winter so a few inches would be like a HECS. LOL. Currently partly sunny here and 62. We've had colder days in April! I think you mean we've had colder days in June. The average high temperature doesn't even reach 70 in NYC until May 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: And, as as Don stated yesterday, that higher amplified state in 7 increases the odds of snowfall in the East towards the end of Jan. bluewave, any thoughts on the developing NAO domain block we are seeing in the GFS and the Euro ? Do you believe it will indeed be transient in nature and then giving way to the more pronounced - EPO ? I know Isotherm thought if we were going to get any significant pv disruptions and a -NAO it would be later in the winter. Wondering the implications for Feb and even March and what happens too with the NAM state. We can always get a transient -NAO from a wave breaking event. But more lasting -NAO episodes are usually associated with MJO phase 8 and SSW’s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I think you mean we've had colder days in June. The average high temperature doesn't even reach 70 in NYC until May 11. It's shocking and I see there are violent storms that could be triggered south of us. People talk about the dangers of snowstorms, but these winter warmups tend to have their own problems. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 30 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: These systems rarely deliver much snow to us, a few inches that gets washed away in a hurry. agreed - unless we get some more blocking and the system redevelops to our south - more then likely light event - after that the jury is sill out as again the MJO is shown to go into the COD and is pointed to exit into the warmer phases in a few weeks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 24 minutes ago, Cfa said: Clouds rolling back in, currently 59. Probably a straight south wind there? A southwest wind will always blow up during these kinds of warmups. At least in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, NEG NAO said: agreed - unless we get some more blocking and the system redevelops to our south - more then likely light event - after that the jury is sill out as again the MJO is shown to go into the COD and is pointed to exit into the warmer phases in a few weeks I'm not expecting much. Strictly anecdotal, but good winters ( well, most would consider this a "good" winter so far, due to mild temps ) in my experience usually show an early signal with a cold, icy or snowy Dec. Likewise, dud winters usually follow snowless or mild Dec. But we can still sneak in a good storm, like Jan 2016. That said, I have been following PB's analysis and I give him great weight, so hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I think you mean we've had colder days in June. The average high temperature doesn't even reach 70 in NYC until May 11. Yeah, last May was definitely colder than this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agreed - unless we get some more blocking and the system redevelops to our south - more then likely light event - after that the jury is sill out as again the MJO is shown to go into the COD and is pointed to exit into the warmer phases in a few weeks I highly doubt it just drops into the cod like that. I can however see a muted trip through 8 1 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I highly doubt it just drops into the cod like that. I can however see a muted trip through 8 1 2. I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 67F A nice beach day in April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I'm not expecting much. Strictly anecdotal, but good winters ( well, most would consider this a "good" winter so far, due to mild temps ) in my experience usually show an early signal with a cold, icy or snowy Dec. Likewise, dud winters usually follow snowless or mild Dec. But we can still sneak in a good storm, like Jan 2016. That said, I have been following PB's analysis and I give him great weight, so hope he is right. All we can say is the pattern looks to improve after the 20th. I get it, you can’t shovel potential! We very could score a nice storm or continue the bad luck. For us to get a storm we need a better pattern so we have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases. Time will tell - now you have committed to 7-8-1-2 - lets see how long it takes to find a reliable plot that shows that - lets see how long it takes for the models to come around and start showing a more suppressed storm track in the medium range after day 5 - NAO is still showing no signs of going negative anytime soon -same with the AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 This was the 6th year that Newark made it to 70 degrees in January. It was the 4th time since 1998. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Time will tell - now you have committed to 7-8-1-2 - lets see how long it takes to find a reliable plot that shows that - lets see how long it takes for the models to come around and start showing a more suppressed storm track in the medium range after day 5 - NAO is still showing no signs of going negative anytime soon -same with the AO I have provided proof with the roundy plots which you fail to acknowledge. I also have the ensembles all agreeing on a pattern change. Those plots you posted are off the GEFS and only going out to jan 16. So if the pattern is supposed to flip after the 20th what do they prove? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases. MJO has also been correcting longer and stronger into 7 and now 8....Interesting piece on the bias to the COD at the end of the run I never knew that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 A cool 60 out here with the January sea breeze. Wish I was in the city and NJ in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, psv88 said: A cool 60 out here with the January sea breeze. Wish I was in the city and NJ in the 70s I'm in NJ and it has gotten cloudy and quite windy, not really a nice day just warm....people outside doing stuff but it's just to get a break. It was sunny briefly but that's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, weatherpruf said: I'm in NJ and it has gotten cloudy and quite windy, not really a nice day just warm....people outside doing stuff but it's just to get a break. It was sunny briefly but that's gone. Really? Was sunny here for much of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 68 here with cloudy skies. Looks like we’ll just miss 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Really? Was sunny here for much of the day. Clouds are coming in quite fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Gotta love Long Island. 55 and cloudy was perfect bringing the Christmas stuff in If it wasn’t for the wind I’d fire up the grill North shore was in the 60s today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The 68 at POU is only 2 off their all-time January high of 70 in 2007. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kpou Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2007 70 0 2 1932 69 2 3 1950 68 0 4 1937 67 0 5 2016 65 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Check out the squall line obliterating the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Made it up to 63 here before the clouds came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 11:27 PM, Snow88 said: Definitely next week but winter is looking to return by MLK week. Touched 63 here just after 1PM. 59 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases. Euro has been playing catchup with the mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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