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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hard not to excited about this look on the GEFS and eps for after the 20th. +pna/-nao/ and trough axis over Chicago. Enjoy the warmth! Things are about to change 

3BC8CD4C-1A79-4100-9D09-12E33BB7DDF1.png

Funny how similar that general forecast 500 mb pattern is to January 20-31 last year.

248ADD86-6A3B-4E79-B84C-0D9F7241AE04.gif.177068289d96898cd466228416d519dd.gif

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Funny how similar that forecast 500 mb pattern is to January 20-31 last year.

248ADD86-6A3B-4E79-B84C-0D9F7241AE04.gif.177068289d96898cd466228416d519dd.gif

 

Do you think this change is all from the mjo? My guess is yes, I don’t see why else would be changing the pac like this. 
 

Up to 62 here now! Models did a great job with the warmth. 

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Do you think this change is all from the mjo? My guess is yes, I don’t see why else would be changing the pac like this. 
 

Up to 62 here now! Models did a great job with the warmth. 

I am guessing that it is related to the MJO. We lingered in 6-7 later last January before the push into 8 during February. But we are much more amplified this year than last year. 
 

C86FF033-0E2F-476C-A91D-1F1AE0E79B79.gif.5a67962a5fbc58e2526555d0045c8c96.gif

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

am guessing that it is related to the MJO. We lingered in 6-7 later last January before the push into 8 during February. But we are much more amplified this year than last year. 

And, as as Don stated yesterday,  that higher amplified state in 7 increases the odds of snowfall in the East towards the end of Jan. 

bluewave,  any thoughts on the developing NAO domain block we are seeing in the GFS and the Euro ?

Do you believe it will indeed be transient in nature and then giving way to the more pronounced - EPO  ?

I know Isotherm thought if we were going to get any significant pv disruptions and  a -NAO it would be later in the winter. Wondering the implications for Feb and even March and what happens too with the NAM state.     

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28 minutes ago, frd said:

And, as as Don stated yesterday,  that higher amplified state in 7 increases the odds of snowfall in the East towards the end of Jan. 

bluewave,  any thoughts on the developing NAO domain block we are seeing in the GFS and the Euro ?

Do you believe it will indeed be transient in nature and then giving way to the more pronounced - EPO  ?

I know Isotherm thought if we were going to get any significant pv disruptions and  a -NAO it would be later in the winter. Wondering the implications for Feb and even March and what happens too with the NAM state.     

My thoughts are it will be transient in nature but that’s all we really need to capitalize on something. The Scandinavian ridge is really a nice precursor to a -nao. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

I didn’t think we would be this clear a few days ago. It’s really off to the races at this point. Out and about around town It feels like a April day. 

Same. Low-level flow ended up more southwesterly vs southerly, and our cold high that moved offshore had plenty of dry air feeding out of it. Lack of precip, farther W/NW low/front and sun = deeper mixing. EWR has gusts to 40MPH now.

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Quote

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1136 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. 
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 66 LAST SET IN 1975. A FOLLOW UP
RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL BE ISSUED IF THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS HIGHER.

 

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14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Transient? That would stink. 

GFS now has a big warmup in late January (around the 23rd) after a transient cold shot. But who knows, very long range is so tough to predict. It wasn't long ago that we thought there would be a very long period of warm weather in mid to late January, but now it's turning out to be only a 6 day warm period as the cold comes back late next week. So who knows about very long range. At least we know we have a decent window for wintry weather towards next weekend into early the following week. But beyond that, who knows.

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