Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 50 minutes ago, larrye said: So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts? The pattern gets better after the 20th. We have a chance at a snow to rain type event next weekend. After that it looks stormy with cold around. But yes, if you’re looking for a classic snowstorm it will be after the 20th. Incredible agreement right now with all the ensembles on a +pna and -epo look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The pattern gets better after the 20th. We have a chance at a snow to rain type event next weekend. After that it looks stormy with cold around. But yes, if you’re looking for a classic snowstorm it will be after the 20th. Incredible agreement right now with all the ensembles on with +pna and -epo look. NAO remaining positive possibly - AO could also stay positive - still plenty of mixed signals - proceed with caution IMO especially if you expect snowstorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: NAO remaining positive possibly - AO could also stay positive The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Earlier today, Lexington and Louisville both set daily record high temperatures of 67° today. That warmth is coming northward and a very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures will likely peak in the 60s as far north as southern New England. At the same time, a storm will be bringing exceptionally heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes Region. Heavy snow is possible in Milwaukee. Very heavy rain will likely impact Chicago and Detroit. In fact, there is a chance that tomorrow's daily rainfall in Detroit could be the heaviest on record for January. The January record precipitation for Detroit is 1.76", which was set on January 12, 1908. This outcome is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°. Tomorrow could see some locations approach or reach record high temperatures. Daily records for January 11 are: Atlantic City: 62°, 2018 Bridgeport: 56°, 1975 Hartford: 60°, 1983 Islip: 60°, 1975 New York City: 63°, 1975 Newark: 66°, 1975 Poughkeepsie: 63°, 1975 White Plains: 57°, 1975 Sunday will likely see widespread near record to record warmth. Daily records for January 12 are: Atlantic City: 67°, 2017 Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018 Hartford: 60°, 2018 Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017 New York City: 66°, 2017 Newark: 67°, 2017 Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018 White Plains: 63°, 2017 Sunday will mark the climax of January's warmth. Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month, but the readings will be cooler than those of this weekend. There are growing indications of a pattern change beyond the medium-term. Near January 20 +/- a few days, somewhat colder air could return for a period. The closing week of the month could see a sustained colder pattern develop, possibly with a shot of Arctic air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +13.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.516. The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 18. Following some warming, the upper stratosphere will cool late in the period. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 9, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 3.026 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.617. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 84% probability of a warmer than normal January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Winners and losers in every storm. We haven’t had it bad in middlesex county since 2009. I’ll gladly take 4-8 over getting skunked completely No, but we have not been the locus of any but Boxing Day and Jan 2016; and western parts of the county may not have done was well Boxing Day, not sure. Although they still had a lot. I always remind myself that most people think of a "bad" winter as one that features any amount of snow and ice, people around these parts complain about the winters incessantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month. So we'd be looking at fast moving systems, no huge events, if they happen, no? That's fine, my favorite recent winter was 2014, not a blockbuster among them, just solid 6-10 in. storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month. Eps looks great for a pattern change. Gefs also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps looks great for a pattern change. Gefs also. Anything on the 18z euro for the 18th/19th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Earlier today, Lexington and Louisville both set daily record high temperatures of 67° today. That warmth is coming northward and a very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures will likely peak in the 60s as far north as southern New England. At the same time, a storm will be bringing exceptionally heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes Region. Heavy snow is possible in Milwaukee. Very heavy rain will likely impact Chicago and Detroit. In fact, there is a chance that tomorrow's daily rainfall in Detroit could be the heaviest on record for January. The January record precipitation for Detroit is 1.76", which was set on January 12, 1908. Hi Don. I pop in from.time to time to read your thoughts! Unless the models fail, tomorrow will be the wettest January day on record for Detroit, after November 11 was our snowiest November day on record. Very impressive to set 2 such records the same season. Records to 1874. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Hi Don. I pop in from.time to time to read your thoughts! Unless the models fail, tomorrow will be the wettest January day on record for Detroit, after November 11 was our snowiest November day on record. Very impressive to set 2 such records the same season. Records to 1874. It is. That Detroit has such a long climate record makes it extremely impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yes, but I believe that was a bit east of the classic benchmark track. Our last east coast blizzard from DCA to Bos was back in 2016. If you’re talking about January 23rd blizzard, Boston really didn’t get that much from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, David-LI said: Anything on the 18z euro for the 18th/19th? Doesn't go out that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 hours ago, David-LI said: Anything on the 18z euro for the 18th/19th? 6Z & 18Z Euro go out to 90 hrs only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: It’s probably been since 2016 since we have had that. Even with a perfect track, people on the coast should expect P-Type issues. How many storms can you recall that it’s snowing at High Point And Acy? Maybe PD2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 53/28 temp split here on Friday....Record highs for Sat. and Sun. are 60 and 66 during 42 year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 12degs. AN. Month to date is +6.8[39.6]. Should be near +9.1[41.6] by the 19th. Maybe we will be near +4 or less by the 28th., using a conservative cold-down starting the 17th. 55* here at 6am. 56* at 6:30am. 59* at 8:00am. T roll back here to 57* by 9am. 61* by 11am with a strong sea breeze, shall I say it?---saving me from the heat! Lol. 62* already at 11:15am. 63* at 11:20am. Crash to 58* at Noon. More crash to 53* at 12:30pm 54*-57* from 2pm-3pm. Places nearby look to be +45!!! for at least a few hours tonight and AM Sun. Laugh now and die in July with this anomaly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 NYC already approaching the record high and it’s only 7 am. Current temperature in NYC 59 1/11 63 in 1975 59 in 1980 59 in 1933 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 48F at 8 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Sun coming out now...Partly cloudy 58, dew 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 On this date in 1975, a major storm was bringing heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes Region. In the East, record high temperatures were being set in the Middle Atlantic region. Today, another storm is bringing heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes region. Yesterday, Indianapolis picked up 1.87" rain, which smashed its previous daily record of 1.29" from 1924). That also tied January 22, 1999 for the 9th highest daily rainfall on record in January. Records go back to 1871. So far this morning (through 8 am), South Bend, IN has received 2.02" rain. That easily surpassed the previous daily record of 0.70", which fell in 1895. It also edged past the 2.00" recorded on January 30, 1909 to become that city's 3rd highest daily precipitation amount on record for January. Records go back to 1893. At 8 am, temperatures in the region included: Atlantic City: 54°; Islip: 51°; New York City: 59°; and Newark: 57°. Parts of the region were also receiving some sunshine. At least parts of the region will likely see record high maximum temperatures later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 More extremes from the jet stream. This is a 5 SD max near 220KT. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Anybody else think we bust high today? Look at that sun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Anybody else think we bust high today? Look at that sun! Yep-it's out here too. Tomorrow will have the same possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Anybody else think we bust high today? Look at that sun! Brilliant sunshine! Up to 60. If the sun stays out we'll past forecast temps very soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Torching here under clear sky’s. Pushing 60 already here. Get out and enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9:41 60 here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 54 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Anybody else think we bust high today? Look at that sun! Probably will, usually the case with warm anomalies like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Hard not to excited about this look on the GEFS and eps for after the 20th. +pna/-nao/ and trough axis over Chicago. Enjoy the warmth! Things are about to change 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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