January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[PB-99]

Just now, bluewave said:

We’ll know the storm track has improved when we get an amped system with no P-Type issues. That’s what we have been waiting for all winter so far. People at the coast will be happy when they get all snow from start to finish.

 

The Euro gives you 4 inches and then snizzle.

Big win if that actually happens. 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

The Euro gives you 4 inches and then snizzle.

Big win if that actually happens. 

It would be nice. But the coastal posters will be happy when they see the storm track shift south closer to the Delmarva. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice. But the coastal posters will be happy when they see the storm track shift south closer to the Delmarva. 

Any snow is good

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll know the storm track has improved when we get an amped system with no P-Type issues. That’s what we have been waiting for. People at the coast will be happy when they get all snow from start to finish.

It’s probably been since 2016 since we have had that. Even with a perfect track, people on the coast should expect P-Type issues. How many storms can you recall that it’s snowing at High Point And Acy? 

[JustinRP37]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Any snow is good

I’m trying to figure out about this. If it snows 3 inches but then rains an inch followed by 60s, would you still like that? I never got the whole I love snow for snows’ sake. If it is going to snow I want it to stay around awhile and be pretty and usable. I hate winters like this with a passion. I want snow on the ground and I want it to stay. It means nothing if it snows and is gone. I’d rather live in Florida and travel a few times a year to Vermont or Colorado and be guaranteed snow and nice days. Perhaps I’m just getting grumpy in my older age, but snow makes everything so bright and nice. I hate the fog, misty type days. 

Anyone have cloud cover anomalies? I read somewhere that both 2018 and 2019 ended well above normal for cloud cover. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s probably been since 2016 since we have had that. Even with a perfect track, people on the coast should expect P-Type issues. How many storms can you recall that it’s snowing at High Point And Acy? 

It wasn’t that long ago. We had plenty of benchmark storm tracks with double digit snowfall at the coast right through March 2018. Last winter we started with the cutter and hugger storm tracks where interior sections had the heaviest amounts. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’m trying to figure out about this. If it snows 3 inches but then rains an inch followed by 60s, would you still like that? I never got the whole I love snow for snows’ sake. If it is going to snow I want it to stay around awhile and be pretty and usable. I hate winters like this with a passion. I want snow on the ground and I want it to stay. It means nothing if it snows and is gone. I’d rather live in Florida and travel a few times a year to Vermont or Colorado and be guaranteed snow and nice days. Perhaps I’m just getting grumpy in my older age, but snow makes everything so bright and nice. I hate the fog, misty type days. 

Anyone have cloud cover anomalies? I read somewhere that both 2018 and 2019 ended well above normal for cloud cover. 

you're definitely in the wrong place-we rarely keep snow on the ground for more than a couple of days-a week is big.

[Brian5671]

Just now, bluewave said:

It wasn’t that long ago. We had plenty of benchmark storm tracks with double digit snowfall at the coast right through March 2018. Last winter we started with the cutter and hugger storm tracks where interior sections had the heaviest amounts. 

The early March snow here last year (2019) was all snow and I'm on the coast (I know it wasn't further south)

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’m trying to figure out about this. If it snows 3 inches but then rains an inch followed by 60s, would you still like that? I never got the whole I love snow for snows’ sake. If it is going to snow I want it to stay around awhile and be pretty and usable. I hate winters like this with a passion. I want snow on the ground and I want it to stay. It means nothing if it snows and is gone. I’d rather live in Florida and travel a few times a year to Vermont or Colorado and be guaranteed snow and nice days. Perhaps I’m just getting grumpy in my older age, but snow makes everything so bright and nice. I hate the fog, misty type days. 

Anyone have cloud cover anomalies? I read somewhere that both 2018 and 2019 ended well above normal for cloud cover. 

I don't have anomalies, but I have solar panels with a history going back to 2012.   2018 had less sunshine than 2019, but 2012-2016 a decent amount more than the past 2 years.  2017 I had an issue with them, so that data is incomplete. 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The early March snow here last year (2019) was all snow and I'm on the coast (I know it wasn't further south)

The South Shore only had 4 inches last March vs 30 plus in March 2018. Nobody minds some mixing if you get double digit snowfall total. But you need rapidly deepening dynamic systems to the south to pull that off. Hopefully, the intense benchmark storm track will come back to life soon. 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It wasn’t that long ago. We had plenty of benchmark storm tracks with double digit snowfall at the coast right through March 2018. Last winter we started with the cutter and hugger storm tracks where interior sections had the heaviest amounts. 

Yeah, but that first March 2018 storm took a perfect track and still skunked the coast. We had some nice track last winter but no cold air around. With the pac improving I wouldn’t be shocked to see the track you are looking for. But  to not expect mixing issues along the coast in any storm is unrealistic expectations.

 

Edit: not implying you have unrealistic expectations 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, but that first March 2018 storm took a perfect track and still skunked the coast. We had some nice track last winter but no cold air around. With the pac improving I wouldn’t be shocked to see the track you are looking for. But  to not expect mixing issues along the coast in any storm is unrealistic expectations.

Like I said, mixing issues with KU  benchmark storm tracks are not a problem. We had some mixing issues with the last March 2018 storm and still went 10-20 inches of snow. But these 1-3 or 2-4 front end thumps then sleet or rain have been a big disappointment since last winter. That’s  what  we get with storm tracks to our west that cut or hug. Hopefully, we return  to a rapidly deepening benchmark storm track.

[JustinRP37]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you're definitely in the wrong place-we rarely keep snow on the ground for more than a couple of days-a week is big.

Not really, I'm not in the city, I'm north of it. Our average #days with 1 inch or more of snow cover is somewhere around 34-40 days in an average winter. The record while I was doing my PhD research was 59 and I think that was either 14-15 or 13-14, I'd have to check when I get back. The past two seasons have been a little rough around the edges, but it helps my research honestly. I look at how they store their metabolic reserves over winter. Winters like this are awful if you are a tick so I guess that is a good think for us. It is one reason why we continue to see tick density increasing to our north and decreasing around our area. It is fascinating to watch and study.

NYC (Central Park) averages roughly 25 days with 1 inch or more of snow cover from 03-04 to today. 

PS> If I am in the wrong place that must mean @Snow88 is really in the wrong place haha, just kidding around. We should all buy a place in Vermont.

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Like I said, mixing issues with KU  benchmark storm tracks are not a problem. We had some mixing issues with the last March 2018 storm and still went 10-20 inches of snow. But these 1-3 or 2-4 front end thumps then sleet or rain have been a big disappointment since last winter. That’s  what  we get with storm tracks to our west that cut or hug. Hopefully, we return  to a rapidly deepening benchmark storm track.

KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now. 

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now. 

early Jan 2018 storm was widespread I believe-that came at the end of a bitter cold 10 day outbreak-was all snow I think

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Just a little shift. Classic NAM. 

It’s been a rough winter for the models. The euro and nam seem to be too amped in the short range. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

early Jan 2018 storm was widespread I believe-that came at the end of a bitter cold 10 day outbreak-was all snow I think

Yes, but I believe that was a bit east of the classic benchmark track. Our last east coast blizzard from DCA to Bos was back in 2016. 

[SnoSki14]

The departures are gonna be ridiculous by 1/20.

Insane warmth coming up and yet somehow I feel more confident there'll be a big flip soon.

Euro still not as cold in the LR as GFS is though...makes sense given its MJO wave progression.

[FPizz]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s been a rough winter for the models. The euro and nam seem to be too amped in the short range. 

That could be a cool Seahawks vs Packers game.

[CIK62]

GFS is now averaging 25degs., or 7degs. BN for the period (17th---26th, with 5" of snow).      Still it is having phasing problems, as precipitation events are accompanied by a rise in the T.     Maybe it will not matter at mid-winter.       At any rate the MTD would then be +2.2 by the 27th.     This is because today and the next 6 warm days are exactly erased by the above -7 for 10 days.        A chameleon month in the making?

[weatherpruf]

59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

early Jan 2018 storm was widespread I believe-that came at the end of a bitter cold 10 day outbreak-was all snow I think

Widespread, but paltry for a lot of us in this subforum....

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Widespread, but paltry for a lot of us in this subforum....

Yep-favored the coast for sure-had about 15-16 inches here in CT.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now. 

It’s very difficult to predict how long the lull periods between active benchmark tracks will last. We had the record breaking 95-96 season followed by the 96-97 to 01-02 lull. The only decent snowfall season in that 6 year run was 00-01. Things really picked up in 02-03 and were great until 05-06. We saw another downturn from 06-07 to 07-08. Some slight improvement for 08-09 before the big ramp up lasting until 10-11. Then another big step down in 11-12 before another uptick in February 2013. Nemo in February 2013 opened up our greatest 6 year benchmark track run through March 2018. Since last year, we have been in a consistent cutter or hugger storm track regime. There were also a few disappointing southern stream suppressed storms like in early December 2018. So the big question is when the rapidly deepening benchmark storm track will make a return.

[weatherpruf]

36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep-favored the coast for sure-had about 15-16 inches here in CT.

I'm coastal plain, but near Raritan Bay. Don't get the same as the coast or interior. So a little too far west for that one.

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s very difficult to predict how long the lull periods between active benchmark tracks will last. We had the record breaking 95-96 season followed by the 96-97 to 01-02 lull. The only decent snowfall season in that 6 year run was 00-01. Things really picked up in 02-03 and were great until 05-06. We saw another downturn from 06-07 to 07-08. Some slight improvement for 08-09 before the big ramp up lasting until 10-11. Then another big step down in 11-12 before another uptick in February 2013. Nemo in February 2013 opened up our greatest 6 year benchmark track run through March 2018. Since last year, we have been in a consistent cutter or hugger storm track regime. There were also a few disappointing southern stream suppressed storms like in early December 2018. So the big question is when the rapidly deepening benchmark storm track will make a big return.

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March 2018 storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

[Gravity Wave]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

With the exception of January 2018 every storm of any significance in NYC since 2017 has featured either a torched BL or severe mixing issues.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

The historic snowfall run from 12-13 to 17-18 was epic on Long Island. My guess is that these amounts for a 6 year period may have been a 100 to 200 year event under older climatology. But who knows what the return period will be for this to occur again under our new more extreme climate.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	46.9
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	0.4	M	M	M	4.7

 

[Allsnow]

23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March 2018 storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

Winners and losers in every storm. We haven’t had it bad in middlesex county since 2009. I’ll gladly take 4-8 over getting skunked completely 

[larrye]

So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

[NEG NAO]

47 minutes ago, larrye said:

So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

Pattern change as MJO exits the warmer phases 4/5 -definetly cooler temps after that --wide open for continued debate exactly what comes next - no snowstorms in sight...…….