Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The 17/18 threat has always had that overrunning look to it. The storm will cut west as the pac is still reshuffling, we just need to have a cold High pressure in front of it. This is what I am talking about when I post overrunning. You have the first cutter acting as a transient 50/50, a cold high 1032, and moisture overrunning the cold air. This is definitely the first legit threat for our area next weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like both weekend days will have record highs and a chance at 70 on Sunday with the sun coming out? Lows will be in the mid 50s lol, bug city. Remember the severe wx warning we had back in Jan 96 about two weeks after the blizzard? I think that was the last time we had dew points in the 60s in January? Even Long Island can get into the record warmth with the flow becoming more westerly behind the Sunday morning squall potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Even Long Island can get into the record warmth with the flow becoming more westerly behind the Sunday morning squall potential. Chris, do you think we have a chance at severe weather? Perhaps even a tornado? Long Island has a history of morning severe wx events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'd be shocked if temps didn't overperform this weekend. If there's breaks in the cloud cover then we'll see 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd be shocked if temps didn't overperform this weekend. If there's breaks in the cloud cover then we'll see 70s. Planned out a nice 270 mile road trip for this weekend. If only there were some car shows I could participate in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: that euro plot shows COD with a re emergence into 4/5 I can clearly see a way we quickly exit the workable pattern and return to the late Dec->mid Jan look. Base states almost always find a way to gain their grip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: that euro plot shows COD with a re emergence into 4/5 If it actually does that you can kiss most of February goodbye 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I can clearly see a way we quickly exit the workable pattern and return to the late Dec->mid Jan look. Base states almost always find a way to gain their grip back. There wouldn’t be a worse scenario, if we go back into 4/5 in early-mid February, it’ll be time to start thinking about next winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: There wouldn’t be a worse scenario, if we go back into 4/5 in early-mid February, it’ll be time to start thinking about next winter Looks like we will spend most of the first half of February in the colder phases. Paul roundy site has us in p2 around mid February. After that it will depend on any Strat help or other factors. The euro has a bias on going cod at the end of those rmm plots. This will not be going cod p4/5. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 And I get it, most of you won’t be convinced a colder/potentially snowier pattern is coming until your under a winter storm warning with a defo over head. I see no reason why a colder pattern won’t take over at the end of January into the first half of February. I would more then welcome a early start to spring if the mjo returns to the warm phases after a few snowstorms. until then, enjoy the record warmth! Tomorrow is going to be beautiful 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we will spend most of the first half of February in the colder phases. Paul roundy site has us in p2 around mid February. After that it will depend on any Strat help or other factors. The euro has a bias on going cod at the end of those rmm plots. This will not be going cod p4/5. So you are looking at a Jan 20 - Feb 20 period now. You are seeing the same flip you saw Jan 20 - Feb 20 1978 / and Jan 20 - Feb 20 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: So you are looking at a Jan 20 - Feb 20 period now. You are seeing the same flip you saw Jan 20 - Feb 20 1978 / and Jan 20 - Feb 20 2003 The pattern looks great starting with a storm around the 19th. Let's hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we will spend most of the first half of February in the colder phases. Paul roundy site has us in p2 around mid February. After that it will depend on any Strat help or other factors. The euro has a bias on going cod at the end of those rmm plots. This will not be going cod p4/5. what hard evidence do you have to support that theory ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: what hard evidence do you have to support that theory ? I posted them on the last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 hours ago, PB-99 said: That would make it about the 3rd time this month before correcting back around. It has wanted to do this over the last 10 days. @NEG NAO the Euro has been looping members back since early JAN only to correct. Here is the newest Euro. Which is still correcting to the CFS which has been in lock step with the Roundy Plots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what hard evidence do you have to support that theory ? Mjo progression, the warm waters by the dateline, and the amplitude of the mjo wave. I also have support from the eps,GEFS, and Geps. Other then ripping and reading the rmm plots, what hard evidence do you have? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 great trends last few days, let's hope for a nice period of cold and hopefully some storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6am Sunday! Crazy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 6am Sunday! Crazy Open the windows! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Mjo progression, the warm waters by the dateline, and the amplitude of the mjo wave. I also have support from the eps,GEFS, and Geps. Other then ripping and reading the rmm plots, what hard evidence do you have? IMO I still think going into the COD then going towards 4/5 as some are showing as a real possibility - I also believe in patterns repeating themselves with still the possibility of being in the same warm phases in the middle of next month - not sold on going into phase 2 yet … 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO I still think going into the COD then going towards 4/5 as some are showing as a real possibility - I also believe in patterns repeating themselves with still the possibility of being in the same warm phases in the middle of next month - not sold on going into phase 2 yet … Those same plots had it looping back into cod after p4 a week ago. I wouldn’t bank a forecast on those long range rmm plots. Even as is, that plot shows some members going around the horn. Either way good luck with your forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Those same plots had it looping back into cod after p4 a week ago. I wouldn’t bank a forecast on those long range rmm plots. Even as is, that plot shows some members going around the horn. Either way good luck with your forecast. YW - I am not forecasting anything - I believe you have to have an open mind in this situation and consider all the possibilities which in this case are many....I do belive in the shorter term we will have possibilities of snowstorms going forward but I didn't like that cutter look that has appeared on the 12Z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO I still think going into the COD then going towards 4/5 as some are showing as a real possibility - I also believe in patterns repeating themselves with still the possibility of being in the same warm phases in the middle of next month - not sold on going into phase 2 yet … The same plots never had you getting out of p5 - 10 days ago. It`s clearly wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Didnt expect so much sunshine today. Perhaps a sign of an overperforming warm up this wkend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: YW - I am not forecasting anything - I believe you have to have an open mind in this situation and consider all the possibilities which in this case are many....I do belive in the shorter term we will have possibilities of snowstorms going forward but I didn't like that cutter look that has appeared on the 12Z GFS Next weekend the pac is still reshuffling which is going to allow for another cutter. If we can place a nice high pressure beforehand we can get a front end thump. ( euro and gfs show this)It’s after the 18th that the pattern really improves. I wouldn’t rip and read the long range op gfs as it is going to look completely diff at 18z. I agree, you can’t have biases when it comes to weather. If the pattern going forward looked unfavorable I would be the first one the tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Those same plots had it looping back into cod after p4 a week ago. I wouldn’t bank a forecast on those long range rmm plots. Even as is, that plot shows some members going around the horn. Either way good luck with your forecast. Euro has been doing this all winter and has been wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Euro has a nice front end thump with the storm for next weekend along with a secondary further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Euro has a nice front end thump with the storm for next weekend along with a secondary further south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Next weekend the pac is still reshuffling which is going to allow for another cutter. If we can place a nice high pressure beforehand we can get a front end thump. ( euro and gfs show this)It’s after the 18th that the pattern really improves. I wouldn’t rip and read the long range op gfs as it is going to look completely diff at 18z. I agree, you can’t have biases when it comes to weather. If the pattern going forward looked unfavorable I would be the first one the tell you. We’ll know the storm track has improved when we get an amped system with no P-Type issues. That’s what we have been waiting for. People at the coast will be happy when they get all snow from start to finish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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