January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" 

That AO and NAO reversal was so extreme, the models could easily see it from 11-15 days out. Newark set their record snowfall for 33 days. Winter didn’t return again until Nemo in February 2013.

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-02-01 to 2020-01-08
1	61.5	2011-01-27	0
2	53.6	2011-01-26	0
3	48.7	1978-02-14	0
4	45.7	1978-02-18	0
5	45.5	1961-02-16	0
6	45.2	1978-02-13	0
7	45.0	1978-02-15	0
8	44.9	1978-02-17	0
-	44.9	1978-02-16	0
10	44.8	1961-02-15	0

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" 

That was actually a very memorable call by JB. He was one of the lone voices saying winter was over by February at this time back in 2011. No one believed him, they kept saying the high latitude blocking was coming right back. He ended up being dead right, the Niña became very west-based, the NAM (AO, NAO) went super positive and that was all she wrote for that winter by the beginning of February, right through the end of March, goodbye snow, goodbye cold and it never came back again

[weatherpruf]

38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

remember 06-07-tropical to freezer in a week and it stayed that way.

Yes, but it was devoid of a snow storm. Couple sleet events.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yes, but it was devoid of a snow storm. Couple sleet events.

We need the cold to have a chance. The air-masses we have had so far has been putrid. I’ll gladly take that cold again and roll the dice. Obviously,I would prefer snow but 2-3 inches of sleet was cool to experience 

[donsutherland1]

With low temperatures in the lower and middle 20s and highs only in the 30s, today offered a reminder that the calendar now reads "January." The reminder will be fleeting.

This afternoon, warmer air had pushed into the Chicago area. As a result, the temperature rose to 50° after a morning low temperature of 23°.

That warmer air will begin returning to the Middle Atlantic region overnight. As the warmer air comes northward, temperatures could begin to rise prior to sunrise. This weekend could be particularly warm as temperatures peak in the 60s as far north as southern New England.

This outcome is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°.

Sunday could see near record to perhaps even record warmth in parts of the region. Daily records for January 12 are:

Atlantic City: 67°, 2017
Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018
Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017
New York City: 66°, 2017
Newark: 67°, 2017
Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018
White Plains: 63°, 2017　

Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month even beyond the coming weekend's exceptional warmth. However, there are growing indications of a pattern change beyond the medium-term.

Near January 20 +/- a few days, somewhat colder air could return for a period. The closing week of the month could see a sustained colder pattern develop, possibly with a shot of Arctic air.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +7.97 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.209. Through the first 40 days of meteorological winter, the AO has averaged +1.073.

The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 17. Following some warming, the upper stratosphere will cool late in the period. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS.

On January 8, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.611 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.273.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February.

Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 82% probability of a warmer than normal January.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital.      GFSx for the next 6 days is  +17 at 49degs.  [Back to Nov. 12, in other words]    Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15.

I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm.     Felt like it was a 'March  style' 37 too, while strolling around.    Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that.

Getting squished.       Y or N?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Use the link.    Something missing on the government website.

This weekend’s near record to record warmth skews the 8-day anomaly. 

[CIK62]

Are we really gonna trust any of these outputs?       There is a glaring 50 degree difference for Florida between the GFS/GEFS around the 24th.      GFS even has snow in Florida that day and almost nowhere else in the 48.      

Personally I want the cold and snow.     However, I may start rooting for a record warm January instead, if we start a 'dog trying to catch his own tail scenario'      Let January be Number One, it deserves it.      Then clear the slate and start off February with another all time record of -16 on the first and a 40" snowstorm that is still on the ground April 01 because it is being protected by the additional 40" that falls during the following 60 days.   lol.

SO LET IT BE WRITTEN      SO LET IT BE DONE        

[NEG NAO]

46 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Are we really gonna trust any of these outputs?       There is a glaring 50 degree difference for Florida between the GFS/GEFS around the 24th.      GFS even has snow in Florida that day and almost nowhere else in the 48.      

Personally I want the cold and snow.     However, I may start rooting for a record warm January instead, if we start a 'dog trying to catch his own tail scenario'      Let January be Number One, it deserves it.      Then clear the slate and start off February with another all time record of -16 on the first and a 40" snowstorm that is still on the ground April 01 because it is being protected by the additional 40" that falls during the following 60 days.   lol.

SO LET IT BE WRITTEN      SO LET IT BE DONE        

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

You typically don`t run " 6 straight weeks of cold " and I wouldn`t expect that either.

 

But when you total up Jan 20 - March 20 , you may likely find that was your winter. 

I can’t disagree with you here really. I think the models may be rushing it a bit and overdoing the cold and blocking at the beginning to an extent but yes, I think when we look back at this winter, the period from 2/1 - 3/20 will be a lot more memorable for winter weather than 12/1 - 1/31

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That was actually a very memorable call by JB. He was one of the lone voices saying winter was over by February at this time back in 2011. No one believed him, they kept saying the high latitude blocking was coming right back. He ended up being dead right, the Niña became very west-based, the NAM (AO, NAO) went super positive and that was all she wrote for that winter by the beginning of February, right through the end of March, goodbye snow, goodbye cold and it never came back again

That was by far the best snow cover I saw on much of Long Island-2 feet on the ground north of Sunrise Highway with huge piles/drifts. In Long Beach we had some intrusions of maritime air that knocked our snow cover down that didn’t make it far inland. 

[donsutherland1]

Back on December 26, composite date for MJO passage at high amplitude in Phase 4 and historic data associated with strong AO+ patterns in combination with a positive EPO implied that the GEFS was missing what would become a strong ridge in the East during the January 10-17 period.

We now know the unfortunate ending to that chapter of Winter 2019-2020. We will feel the full consequences this weekend as the mercury approaches or sets record high temperatures in the region.

But is this the end of the story of Winter 2019-2020?

The GEFS keeps things on pause for the most part. But, just as had been the case back in December, the GEFS could be mishandling the pattern in the extended range. Certainly, if the bias-corrected GEFS forecast for the MJO is accurate, the forecast 500 mb pattern would be suspect.

The bias-corrected GEFS is suggesting that the MJO will move into Phase 7 at a super high amplitude (2.000 or above). Such an outcome typically produces a trough in the East and often a ridge in the EPO-PNA domains. Historic experience with the MJO following its reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period (as occurred recently) sees the MJO progress into Phases 7 and 8 (88% cases). Both the GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS have recently adjusted to show the MJO moving into Phase 7 at high amplitude. The EPS has made some movement in that direction, as well.

Additonal evidence also suggests that something closer to the more typical 500 mb pattern for the MJO in Phase 7 at a super high amplitude than the GEFS idea is the more likely scenario:

1. The 12z EPS moved toward such a pattern following hour 270.

2. The 12z CFSv2's Week 3 forecast had a similar 500 mb pattern to that shown on the EPS, except that the ridge-trough axes were displaced somewhat to the west.

3. Historic outcomes 3-4 weeks following the MJO's reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during January 5-20 were generally 10°-12° colder than the Week 1-2 anomaly. Based on the latest guidance (estimated 40.0° mean temperature for the January 8-21 period in New York City), that would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature around 28.0°-30.0° at Central Park. That would be several degrees below normal. The recent weekly CFSv2 data was even colder than that.

Key Points:

1. A preponderance of data is pointing to the return of winter in the East.

2. January could close with a sustained cold pattern that could continue into at least part of February.

3. Historic data from the past cases where the MJO entered Phase 7 at super high amplitude referenced above often saw above to much above normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during February.

[doncat]

32° for the high today after am low of 22°....Pressure got to 30.76".

[SRRTA22]

Thank you @donsutherland1 let's see what Feb has in store.

I for one, looking SO forward to the 60s Sat/Sun

Beers and steaks for the boys before we enter the plunger again. Forget about our snow drought this weekend and enjoy the warmth.

[NEG NAO]

22 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Thank you @donsutherland1 let's see what Feb has in store.

I for one, looking SO forward to the 60s Sat/Sun

Beers and steaks for the boys before we enter the plunger again. Forget about our snow drought this weekend and enjoy the warmth.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or 15degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.2[39.1].        Should be about  +10.3[42.8] by the 18th.

37* here at 6am.       55^ by 4pm.

EURO is slower with the BN air, no 'BN Days' or Snow for at least 10 days.     CMC goes BN late 10-Day and snow is possible.     GFS goes BN with the 17th and has snow on the 19th and 22nd.     It is -6 for the 9 days (17th---25th).     This would make the MTD +4.3 by the 26th.     We will see.

[MJO812]

Our 1st threat will be on the 18/ 19th. Have to see how the Pacific holds up.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Our 1st threat will be on the 18/ 19th. Have to see how the Pacific holds up.

Anything that early would be a bonus, I would like to be inland and elevated for that. Once the pattern fully changes let’s see if we can rearrange the storm track. The last thing we want to see is, going from cutters and huggers to suppression depression.

[donsutherland1]

This morning, temperatures were broadly warmer than they were yesterday at the same time. Moreover, in a number of locations, temperatures had been rising since midnight.

Select 6 am temperatures and the 24-hour change are below:

Allentown: 26° +6°
Atlantic City: 36° +13°
Baltimore: 35° +11°
Bridgeport: 37° +14°
Harrisburg: 29° +6°
Islip: 41° +18°
New York City: 37° +13°
Newark: 31° +7°
Philadelphia: 33° +9°
Poughkeepsie: 30° +9°
Washington, DC: 39° +9°
White Plains: 34° +13°

As warmer air continues to stream into the region, the temperature will likely reach 50° or above in much of the region before the end of the day.

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Our 1st threat will be on the 18/ 19th. Have to see how the Pacific holds up.

similar to most of the earlier "threats" no big deal unless track trends further south

[PB-99]

The CFS continues to agree with the idea of where we are going , p8

 

 

 

 

I posted that splitting the uprights made the most sense 

 

And even the Euro is seeing it.

 

The Hovmoller`s and Roundy plots always had this.

 

 

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if the squall potential early Sunday can mix down some of the stronger winds aloft. The Euro maintains the squall with record high temperatures and dewpoints in the 60’s. This has got a more spring look to it than something we normally see in January. 

[PB-99]

A return on or about Jan 20 is still on target. 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB-99]

The 6z OP run was just absurd.

 

The CFS last 10 days of the month continues to say it`s real .

 

 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

that euro plot shows COD with a re emergence into 4/5

[PB-99]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that euro plot shows COD with a re emergence into 4/5

 

That would make it about the 3rd time this month before correcting back around.

It has wanted to do this over the last 10 days. 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

The 6z OP run was just absurd.

 

The CFS last 10 days of the month continues to say it`s real .

 

 

 

 

 

The pattern looks wild on every model starting next week.

[PB-99]

This is where I corrected the EURO to 6 days ago, in it`s last fake loop back. 

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the squall potential early Sunday can mix down some of the stronger winds aloft. The Euro maintains the squall with record high temperatures and dewpoints in the 60’s. This has got a more spring look to it than something we normally see in January. 

Looks like both weekend days will have record highs and a chance at 70 on Sunday with the sun coming out?  Lows will be in the mid 50s lol, bug city.

Remember the severe wx warning we had back in Jan 96 about two weeks after the blizzard?  I think that was the last time we had dew points in the 60s in January?

 

[Allsnow]

The 17/18 threat has always had that overrunning look to it. The storm will cut west as the pac is still reshuffling, we just need to have a cold High pressure in front of it. 

[CIK62]

Taken literally, this is 10" of Snow and then the single digit regime.         If not already an exaggeration, then I bet it starts showing the mandatory sub-zero T's it does every mid winter period with a realization rate of less than 10%.       That is, just two sub-zero realities here in the last 26 years.       I like that snow on the ground already setup for a lower boundary layer T, than otherwise would theoretically be  possible.     Long Live the GFS!

192-384 hour forecasts (1.0 degree resolution):

FCST Hour

Valid Time

Max Temp °F

Min Temp °F

Td °F

10m Wind mph

925mb Wind mph

850mb Wind mph

Total Precip(")

Conv. Precip(")

500-1000 THKNS

500mb Height

500mb Temp °C

850mb Temp °C

925mb Temp °C

MSLP mb

Total Cloud Cover

850mb Td(°C)

192

Sat 01/18 06Z

26 °

24 °

13 °

NW 7

NNW 16

NW 25

0.00

0.00

535

557

-19 °

-5 °

-9 °

1029

72 %

-21 °

204

Sat 01/18 18Z

28 °

25 °

19 °

SSE 2

SSW 9

WSW 36

0.03

0.00

538

558

-15 °

-8 °

-10 °

1024

100 %

-22 °

216

Sun 01/19 06Z

29 °

27 °

23 °

ENE 9

SE 22

SSW 27

0.19

0.00

544

556

-16 °

0 °

-1 °

1015

100 %

-5 °

228

Sun 01/19 18Z

39 °

35 °

33 °

WNW 4

W 31

W 43

0.15

0.00

547

548

-18 °

2 °

4 °

1000

100 %

0 °

240

Mon 01/20 06Z

24 °

16 °

11 °

NW 16

NW 38

NW 40

0.00

0.00

523

533

-26 °

-10 °

-16 °

1012

19 %

-12 °

252

Mon 01/20 18Z

17 °

12 °

14 °

NW 16

NW 36

NW 45

0.00

0.00

510

528

-35 °

-15 °

-16 °

1022

1 %

-16 °

264

Tue 01/21 06Z

14 °

11 °

9 °

NW 11

NNW 29

NW 25

0.00

0.00

513

538

-30 °

-14 °

-15 °

1032

0 %

-15 °

276

Tue 01/21 18Z

21 °

11 °

19 °

SSW 2

SSW 7

WSW 13

0.00

0.00

519

545

-29 °

-12 °

-13 °

1033

51 %

-12 °

288

Wed 01/22 06Z

28 °

23 °

27 °

ESE 4

SSE 27

SSW 31

0.02

0.00

524

543

-28 °

-9 °

-7 °

1025

100 %

-10 °

300

Wed 01/22 18Z

34 °

29 °

28 °

WNW 4

W 20

WSW 27

0.62

0.00

534

539

-24 °

-5 °

-2 °

1006

100 %

-6 °

312

Thu 01/23 06Z

28 °

13 °

10 °

W 9

WNW 38

W 25

0.00

0.00

515

520

-26 °

-15 °

-14 °

1007

97 %

-16 °

324

Thu 01/23 18Z

17 °

8 °

10 °

WNW 16

WNW 31

WNW 38

0.00

0.00

502

511

-38 °

-21 °

-15 °

1011

44 %

-22 °

336

Fri 01/24 06Z

13 °

10 °

3 °

SW 11

WSW 38

W 38

0.00

0.00

512

524

-31 °

-13 °

-16 °

1014

40 %

-13 °

348

Fri 01/24 18Z

17 °

9 °

13 °

W 11

W 27

WNW 31

0.00

0.00

516

529

-28 °

-15 °

-15 °

1017

36 %

-15 °

360

Sat 01/25 06Z

13 °

11 °

9 °

W 7

WNW 27

W 25

0.00

0.00

518

534

-27 °

-14 °

-11 °

1021

9 %

-16 °

372

Sat 01/25 18Z

23 °

7 °

20 °

WNW 7

WNW 18

WNW 27

0.00

0.00

517

536

-28 °

-15 °

-13 °

1025

3 %

-15 °

384

Sun 01/26 06Z

13 °

8 °

4 °

NW 2

WNW 11

W 20

0.00

0.00

520

543

-29 °

-13 °

-12 °

1031

0 %

-14 °

Max Temp	Min Temp	850 Temp Max	850 Temp Min	500 Height Max	500 Height Min	Thickness Max	Thickness Min
39 °F	7 °F	2 °C	-21 °C	558	511	547	502

Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 1.01 " and Convective: 0 "

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 1.75 " and Convective: 0.03 "

 

Enter an ICAO to extract 16 GFS data:

 

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