bluewave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, binbisso said: Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here. We discussed it in the MJO posts earlier today. The EPS tends to be too weak in MJO phase 6 following phase 5. So the other models have a slightly different pattern around day 10 due to the stronger MJO phase 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We discussed it in the MJO posts earlier today. The EPS tends to be too weak in MJO phase 6 following phase 5. So the other models have a slightly different pattern around day 10 due to the stronger MJO phase 6. Eps loves the pattern after day 7 I like where the pattern is going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: So you think that the EPS is correct in taking the MJO into the COD before the other models? That’s probably why the divergence at day 8-10. The GEFS has a stronger phase 6 before getting to 7. Gefs made strides towards the eps today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 A very stubborn SE Ridge continues to live: Hope you are enjoying the secular changes taking place. Tomorrow still looks as cold/colder than anything coming up in the next 15 days: What are we waiting for exactly? The GFS and EURO both have halve of their next 16 or 10 days in the 50's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, binbisso said: Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here. As noted previously, the base case from historical data is that the MJO will likely progress into Phases 7 and 8 in the extended range (88% of cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period). The shift in the MJO, even with lags, should start manifesting itself in some hemispheric changes. The new GEFS is beginning to reflect some of the changes that could take place. The EPS has been suggesting a pattern change for some time. Questions about the length of the transition and timing of perhaps sustained cold remain to be resolved. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: As noted previously, the base case from historical data is that the MJO will likely progress into Phases 7 and 8 in the extended range (88% of cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period). The shift in the MJO, even with lags, should start manifesting itself in some hemispheric changes. The new GEFS is beginning to reflect some of the changes that could take place. The EPS has been suggesting a pattern change for some time. Questions about the length of the transition and timing of perhaps sustained cold remain to be resolved. Yes don i agree with when and duration of the pattern change. One could argue the extended eps is the best look so far this winter. It did nail this torch period and has done better than the gefs since dec 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 31 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yes don i agree with when and duration of the pattern change. One could argue the extended eps is the best look so far this winter. It did nail this torch period and has done better than the gefs since dec 1st. Hopefully, after early this coming weekend and early next week, the worst of the warmth will be over. Even transitional patterns can have opportunities for snowfall, so things could get more interesting as the month progresses. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Hopefully, after early this coming weekend and early next week, the worst of the warmth will be over. Even transitional patterns can have opportunities for snowfall, so things could get more interesting as the month progresses. It is hard to get less interesting than what we currently have. We hope for interesting times ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: A very stubborn SE Ridge continues to live: Hope you are enjoying the secular changes taking place. Tomorrow still looks as cold/colder than anything coming up in the next 15 days: What are we waiting for exactly? The GFS and EURO both have halve of their next 16 or 10 days in the 50's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FWIW, the above Day 11 analog composite was based off the 0z GEFS. Since then, the GEFS has slowly begun to shift toward a less hostile pattern. Tomorrow's analog set could provide insight into the early stages of the GEFS' evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: It is hard to get less interesting than what we currently have. We hope for interesting times ahead. We could see a rare January thunderstorm this weekend, we'll have to settle for that, but agree, very boring pattern going back to mid-December or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 For those who are interested, 12z EPS temperatures for NYC (January 16-20): January 16: 48-36 January 17: 38-29 January 18: 34-25 January 19: 32-22 January 20: 32-20 Of course things can change at that timeframe, but at least one isn't dealing with a seemingly endless stretch of unseasonable warmth on that run. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 It certainly isn't looking like the month long torch that was advertised last week. If we can get the MJO to avoid any 2019-like shenanigans or collapse back into the COD then we should have plenty of chances at some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Patience is required in eventually getting to a colder pattern since MJO’s have become so extreme. This one already caused catastrophic flooding due to the record SST’s north of Australia. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/01/01/not-ordinary-rain-worst-rainfall-in-over-decade-causes-massive-floods-in-jakarta.html Jakarta average rainfall intensity during big floods The rainfall intensity recorded on Dec. 31, 2019 is deemed the highest ever occurred in Jakarta compared to other years of when big flood occurred in the capital city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We could see a rare January thunderstorm this weekend, we'll have to settle for that, but agree, very boring pattern going back to mid-December or so. Was it NYE or NY day we had thunderstorms? Damn I can't remember a week ago... I'm so fkd That was pretty amazing, thunder and lightning with heavy rain, dime sized hail and frozen goop at about 45*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Much colder air is continuing to push into the region. However, its stay will be short. By Friday, much warmer air will return to the region. The coming weekend could be particularly warm. There is a growing possibility that temperatures could soar into the 60s this weekend even into southern New England. Sunday could see near record to perhaps even record warmth in parts of the region. Daily records for January 12 are: Atlantic City: 67°, 2017 Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018 Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017 New York City: 66°, 2017 Newark: 67°, 2017 Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018 White Plains: 63°, 2017 Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month even beyond the weekend's exceptional warmth. Near January 20 +/- a few days, somewhat colder air could return for a period. There remains potential that the closing week of the month could see a sustained colder pattern develop. The progression of the MJO, state of the teleconnections, and position of what will likely remain a strong polar vortex will shape the long-range pattern evolution. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +4.10 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.048. That was the highest AO figure since December 22, 2016 when the AO was +4.511. This was also the highest January AO reading since January 25, 2008 when the AO was +4.458. It appears that the AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 16. Following some warming, the upper stratosphere will cool late in the period. Wave 2 activity will remain suppressed through mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 7, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.270 (RMM). The January 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.599. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into the start of February. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 84% probability of a warmer than normal January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Strike Up the Band! I just reached 32* (8:30pm)for the first time since Dec. 22. Tomorrow will be the first BN Day for all since calendar winter started. We could have to wait now at least 8 more days for a repeat, I suppose. December 2015 had no BN days at all---Jan.04 was the next BN day back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Some really nice looks on the ensembles for the end of January. I still like the 17-19th for a swfe/overrunning storm. Before that we get the torch effects of p5/6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 19 hours ago, PB-99 said: Zero lag. And the MJO doesn`t slow. Non of this has any support, it`s complete nonsense. False and false. There is a complete atmospheric journal on slow and fast mjo and also the lag each response has https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0352.1 and here is the cpc website that shows composite lag of each https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/description.shtml 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 @bluewave looks like the stronger wave will help amplitude in p7 now also. As you said a few days ago, p8 by the start of February. You can also see the building substance in the warm phases which is nice to see. Substance is sinking air which won’t allow for convection development. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Wow impressive cold out west is likely. Places like Montana could see -30F or lower temps. Even out towards Seattle could see highs in the teens & 20s with snow possible. Some signs a chunk of that may get here eventually though I remain skeptical of what the GFS shows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Cold morning out there, current temp 24 Pretty impressive that we will be in the 60's this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 45degs., or about 13degs. AN. Month to date is +7.4[40.4]. Should be near +10.2[42.7] by the 17th. 24* here at 6am. 29* by Noon. 34* already by 2pm. All models go colder near the 18th. But we could have 5 or 6 50-Degree Days before any help arrives. The GFS has some snow near the 19th and 22nd. The cold never really takes over on the GFS, and has retreated by the end of the run. The only purpose of the cold air seems to be to stop an all time warm January from occuring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Temp has actually dropped to 23 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 This morning, temperatures in the region were mainly in the lower and middle 20s. 6 am temperatures included: Bridgeport: 23° Danbury: 19° Islip: 23° New York City: 24° Newark: 24° Philadelphia: 24° Poughkeepsie: 21° White Plains: 21° 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 45degs., or about 13degs. AN. Month to date is +7.4[40.4]. Should be near +10.2[42.7] by the 17th. 24* here at 6am. All models go colder near the 18th. But we could have 5 or 6 50-Degree Days before any help arrives. The GFS has some snow near the 19th and 22nd. The cold never really takes over on the GFS, and has retreated by the end of the run. The only purpose of the cold air seems to be to stop an all time warm January from occuring. The pattern gets better on all the models. Who ever canceled this winter especially this month will look foolish. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 10 hours ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave looks like the stronger wave will help amplitude in p7 now also. As you said a few days ago, p8 by the start of February. You can also see the building substance in the warm phases which is nice to see. Substance is sinking air which won’t allow for convection development. Thanks for posting. A stronger phase 7 could set up a -EPO gradient pattern in late January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The pattern gets better on all the models. Who ever canceled this winter especially this month will look foolish. If it does get colder on 1/20, that doesn’t cancel out the previous 3 weeks of warmth for this month. The last week of January won’t salvage this month lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If it does get colder on 1/20, that doesn’t cancel out the previous 3 weeks of warmth for this month. The last week of January won’t salvage this month lol if it snows a lot it will cancel the first 3 weeks of january... it's all about the snow who cares about the warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If it does get colder on 1/20, that doesn’t cancel out the previous 3 weeks of warmth for this month. The last week of January won’t salvage this month lol Really a matter of perspective. Most of us don’t care about an almost-certain positive monthly departure so long as we are looking ahead to a pattern that can produce. Looks like a very niño-ish progression here. We should start rocking soon (finally)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Sitting at 19, first teens of the roaring 20’s here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now