January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[nycwinter]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC already in the top 10 warmest January 1st to 15th periods before the warmest temperatures arrive.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15	Missing Count
1	2007-01-15	46.4	0
2	1932-01-15	44.0	0
3	1950-01-15	43.6	0
4	1907-01-15	43.5	0
5	1998-01-15	43.3	0
6	2005-01-15	42.2	0
7	1937-01-15	42.1	0
8	1930-01-15	41.7	0
9	1890-01-15	41.4	0
10	2020-01-15	41.2	8

hmm so in years 1932 1950 and 1907 when their was no global climate change january 1-15 were warmer..

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

31F for our “cold” morning

Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen

If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does

Saw an article that great lakes ice cover trails even last year...LOL.    Stores have stocks of ice melt, snowblowers, sleds that are just sitting there.   On the bright side Jan heating bills will be lower especially those with Nat Gas

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

31F for our “cold” morning

Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen

If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does

Just wait till the weekend, completely absurd departures possible. We may see a 70F reading under cloudy skies in mid January...that's insane.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hmm so in years 1932 1950 and 1907 when their was no global climate change january 1-15 were warmer..

That 1932 record warmest January still stands for NYC. It’s the only winter month that hasn’t set a new warmest record since 2015.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

Top 3 warmest winter months in NYC

Dec

50.8...2015

44.1...2001

43.8...1984

Jan

43.2....1932

41.4....1990/1950

40.9....1913/2006

Feb

42.0...2018

41.6...2017

40.9...2012

[binbisso]

That's a big change on the GE FS rmm plots for the mjo. Takes it through 6 very Amplified almost to phase 7 at the end. Yesterday had the wave dying off in six and looping back towards five. Also if guidance is remotely correct starting next week Thursday we look to more seasonable to below-normal temperatures while the mjo is still in  its warm phases

[binbisso]

Also of note if long-range guidance is correct it doesn't look like we go below normal and dry but it looks very active love the lower Heights just north of Hawaii in the extended. Maybe we can salvage part of January after all

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, binbisso said:

That's a big change on the GE FS rmm plots for the mjo. Takes it through 6 very Amplified almost to phase 7 at the end. Yesterday had the wave dying off in six and looping back towards five. Also if guidance is remotely correct starting next week Thursday we look to more seasonable to below-normal temperatures while the mjo is still in  its warm phases

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going  to phase 8 by the start of February. 
 

 

 

[binbisso]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going  to phase 8 by the start of February. 
 

 

 

Yeah it will be great to get phase 8 heading into our snowiest month should make February very interesting

[PB-99]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going  to phase 8 by the start of February. 
 

 

 

 

Ahem.

 

Now you believe me huh 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Ahem.

 

Now you believe me huh 

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

[Brian5671]

Just now, bluewave said:

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night.

The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out.

[PB-99]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

 

  On 1/6/2020 at 11:13 AM, bluewave said:

The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later  MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

Yes you had a strong p 6 but the above stalled it there. 

While I was arguing that we were heading into p7 and away from p6 , I thought this to be your position.
 

My apologies , has this since changed ?  Do you know see us easily getting in p7 and heading on into p8 like I did/ do ? 

 

 

 

 

[PB-99]

Once again we keyed on the fake loop on the GEFS 

 

 

 

We will strongly go into p7 and head into p8 

 

One only has to look at the Jan 1 - 15 period when the MJO in p4 reaches an amplitude of 1.5 SD 9x out of 10 the MJO will circle into p8.

And as I pointed out over the last few days in here that is where we are going.

The EPS punts the trough off the WC by day 9 now. We are now inside 10 days, the GEFS is just slower but has finally come around.

So to the " winters dead crowd " and those who were on wait until  Feb 15, I think you can see that this gets back and gets back here before then. 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

 

  On 1/6/2020 at 11:13 AM, bluewave said:

The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later  MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

Yes you had a strong p 6 but the above stalled it there. 

While I was arguing that we were heading into p6 and away from p6 , I thought this to be your position.
 

My apologies , has this since changed ?  Do you know see us easily getting in p7 and heading on into p8 like I did/ do ? 

 

 

 

 

I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February.

[White Gorilla]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out.

If the MJO doesn't help us out, can we look to the EPO hopefully going negative at some point? 

[MJO812]

Flurries here

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February.

You also have to consider the lagged response, which is why I favor mid Feb for colder weather. 

This assumes the wave keeps progressing and doesn't slow down in 6/7.

If it does slow down then the cold would arrive late Feb and into March, which lines up with our late winter/early spring cold/snow of the past decade.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

If the MJO doesn't help us out, can we look to the EPO hopefully going negative at some point? 

We can get help from the -EPO as soon as we get closer to phase 7 in late January. Here is what the MJO did the last 2 times we had such an amplified phase 4-5 passage in January. Both times we eventually got over closer to phase 8 in February. 

 

[PB-99]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February.

 

Ahh ok I read " late Jan ". Kool , we seem to agree now. 

 

Here is my position once again, we will be heading into 7 and then into p8 as I have been posting in here since last Thursday. At that time the MJO Rimm plots were trying to fade the MJO back around into the COD and the concerns at  that time  ( not you ) was that were going to circle back to into p4/5/6 because of the warm water N of Australia. 

That was easily pegged as garbage and tossed aside. 

 

Now p7 doesn`t bring the trough into the east out body and soul in fact it`s Ttrough is probably just east of the Rockies but I think what people kept missing was that the Neg the EPS was ejecting wasn`t some pig pac poorly sourced negative that once east of the Rockies would just end up down sloping warm PAC air in the east.

Typically they are, that`s why p7 isn`t BN and one would have to wait for the typical p8 response. However and another silly argument by some ( again not you ) was what that there had to be " a lag ", again that was also pointed out as garbage because that piece of the TPV the EPS ejects is real LLC air and that undercuts the ridge starting on d9, you can see that as the 0 line is down in N/C , by day 15 it`s in S/C. 

It is why the EPS was faster weakening the ridge in the means.  So what does this all mean ? You will start to see the a more favorable 500 by day 9 now.

That doesn`t always mean " snow " but surely the suppression of the SE RIDGE, the end to the plus 10 to plus 20 we have experienced during this 30 day period and a N regime at 2 meter. ( late Jan N is all you need ) .

 

 But the upper air pattern gets better and the point being driven home here for a week by me was, winter was not over ,  the SE ridge would get muted and we should return to a more N late Jan pattern by Jan 20.

Which will lead into the core of winter Feb idea. 

 

[PB-99]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You also have to consider the lagged response, which is why I favor mid Feb for colder weather. 

This assumes the wave keeps progressing and doesn't slow down in 6/7.

If it does slow down then the cold would arrive late Feb and into March, which lines up with our late winter/early spring cold/snow of the past decade.

 

Zero lag. 

And the MJO doesn`t slow.

Non of this has any support, it`s complete nonsense. 

[PB-99]

 

The CFS has continued to lead the way.

 

This should be no surprise as the Roundy plots have been showing this for a week now.

 

Here is the GFS / GEFS 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

It's great the GEFS  doesnt stall in 6 anymore and now moving into 7. Things should get better by months end.

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's great the GEFS  doesnt stall in 6 anymore and now moving into 7. Things should get better by months end.

As of the forecast today.  Who knows what the models will say tomorrow. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's great the GEFS  doesnt stall in 6 anymore and now moving into 7. Things should get better by months end.

It's only the freaking 8th, months end is over three weeks away. I'm hoping things get better way before months end.

I'm hoping by the 18th or so. Call me a wild eyed optimist.

[nycwinter]

saw a few flurries this morning probably only snow i will see for the rest of the month...

[White Gorilla]

12 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

saw a few flurries this morning probably only snow i will see for the rest of the month...

We are only at the 8th.  A lot can happen, change between now and the end of the month. I will say you will see snow before Jan 31.

[binbisso]

Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks  good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here. 

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Not a single post about the upcoming pattern in over 3 hours. EPS looks  good starting around day 8 and only getting better. Negative EPO positive PNA showing up later in the Run. I guess if a South East Ridge was going to pop in the long range or the mjo was going into the warm phases they'll be post after post here.every other sub-forum is buzzing with optimism except here. 

Gee maybe people have to work

[IrishRob17]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Gee maybe people have to work

Was yesterday a holiday then?