January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

there is a downward trend in the ao/nao forecasts with a few members getting very negative for the nao...we just went through a negative period with no snow or arctic temperatures...these are the el nino winters with less than 6" on January 15th and what fell after the 15th...some big years in there...some of the worst also...this el nino is weak...the other bad ones were stronger or strongest...the chances for this winter getting more or much more snow after January 15th are pretty good but how much more is the question...

season...Jan 15th...After...…..total.....biggest storm...
1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"...…….6.8"
1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"...…….1.8"
1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"...….17.7"
1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"...….17.6"
1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"...…...8.1"
1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"...…….6.2"
1992-93........1.9"......22.6"......24.5"...….10.6"
1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"...….10.8"
1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"...…….5.0"
2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"...….13.8"

2006-07.........T.........12.4"......12.4"...…….5.5"

2014-15........3.7"......46.7"......50.4"...…….9.8"

2015-16...…….T...…….32.8"......32.8"...…..27.5"

…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

other enso years that started bad but had better second haves...

season...Jan 15th...After...total
1971-72........1.0"......21.9"......22.9"...…….5.7"
1999-00.........T.........16.3"......16.3"...…….5.5"
2012-13........5.1"......21.0"......26.1"...….11.4"

 

Some epic stinkers in there, makes me wonder just how predictive all this really is. That 87 storm surprised me; that had to be more than 8.1 in the suburbs; it was a particularly disastrous one, starting late morning and getting to whiteout conditions by noon.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I think we can get a storm or two, but it's going to be difficult to lock in any long term cold/snowy pattern based on some of the indices right now....

It's winter, we're more likely to see some snow than not, so there's that....completely snowless or very low snow winters are not the norm either, though we've had some stretches, 97-01 being the longest in recent decades...where nothing much happened.

[Rtd208]

Pretty good discussion from DT (WxRisk) in his This Week in Weather video.

 

[MJO812]

Long range looks awful on every model

Window of opportunity is still between the 6th -9th.

[tim]

...well i guess if we can't watch winter out our windows maybe we can

watch it on TV..

..green bay packers home  sunday jan 12th..

[JustinRP37]

20 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The pattern looks good despite some people canceling the whole month of January  .

 

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Long range looks awful on every model

Window of opportunity is still between the 6th -9th.

Now I’m confused 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

 

Now I’m confused 

I'm a weenie 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Long range looks awful on every model

Window of opportunity is still between the 6th -9th.

wow, when you say that, you know it's bad.    I see little to get excited about-a couple of small window of opportunity, but next few weeks looks bad-MJO heading to a strong 4/5 just like last year.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Long range looks awful on every model

Window of opportunity is still between the 6th -9th.

Yup and then we'll be asleep till late Feb/March. 

The pattern has now gotten so predictable that you could pretty much guarantee another blocky late winter/early spring and torch Jan/Feb.

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yup and then we'll be asleep till late Feb/March. 

The pattern has now gotten so predictable that you could pretty much guarantee another blocky late winter/early spring and torch Jan/Feb.

Sometimes we can sneak in a wet snow event in early Feb...but it seems we are getting into some stinky winters. Been a few years now, and a number of misses for our area. Just like when I was a kid, only without the brutal cold...

[Brian5671]

44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yup and then we'll be asleep till late Feb/March. 

The pattern has now gotten so predictable that you could pretty much guarantee another blocky late winter/early spring and torch Jan/Feb.

JB is beginning to hedge too...when that happens you know it's bad....

[BxEngine]

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Sometimes we can sneak in a wet snow event in early Feb...but it seems we are getting into some stinky winters. Been a few years now, and a number of misses for our area. Just like when I was a kid, only without the brutal cold...

Huh? Whats your average snowfall vs the last few winter totals?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yup and then we'll be asleep till late Feb/March. 

The pattern has now gotten so predictable that you could pretty much guarantee another blocky late winter/early spring and torch Jan/Feb.

the NAO will have more of an influence late plus we have the  warm NW ATL waters which often help us late as well- so maybe we can get some big snow events late like we have the past few years....

[weatherpruf]

45 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Huh? Whats your average snowfall vs the last few winter totals?

Been under average for a few years, only got there in 2016 due to the blizzard. The area around eastern Middlesex County has not done well in relation to areas close by, just as when I was young and elevation and latitude mattered. I am specifically responding to Snoski who is close to me.

[BxEngine]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Been under average for a few years, only got there in 2016 due to the blizzard. The area around eastern Middlesex County has not done well in relation to areas close by, just as when I was young and elevation and latitude mattered.

But what is your average? And what did you get in 2017-18? 16-17? I dont think youre below average most of the past few years. In fact id be willing to bet youve been above average at least 6 or 7 of the previous 10 winters.

[weatherpruf]

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB is beginning to hedge too...when that happens you know it's bad....

He is close to worthless and I pay him no mind. But even a stopped clock....you have people right here that are much better at weather than he is, free of charge.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

He is close to worthless and I pay him no mind. But even a stopped clock....you have people right here that are much better at weather than he is, free of charge.

Fair point-my point was more that he's always barking cold/snow so when he's not you know it's REAL bad

[weatherpruf]

Just now, BxEngine said:

But what is your average? And what did you get in 2017-18? 16-17? I dont think youre below average most of the past few years.

I would actually have to check; I know they usually go with New Brunswick, but there were some storms, like 2018, where they had close to a foot and we had 3-4 inches, 15 minutes down the tpk. No big storms here at all since 2016. 16-17 and 17-18 were really unremarkable here. I often had coworkers come in to work from Monmouth Cty or the hills of N Jersey and they couldn't believe how little we had. Pick a storm, we underperformed. I often got heat here from people who didn't believe me, most of them gone the last two years due to lack of storms, thank goodness.One day in March 2018 we had about 3 inches, heck two times, and people were jumping on me telling me that's not possible, as if I can't see for myself and report accurately. Same thing during the "bomb" cyclone; it just wasn't happening here and we topped out at just under 7. Colleagues had over a foot 20 minutes down the parkway. I really don't know why, during one storm JM ? said it was subsidence and dry air. Mostly the bands skirt east of us for some reason, or we are too close to the bay. Don't know. It's unusual to jackpot here, 2016 and Boxing Day were exceptions.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yup and then we'll be asleep till late Feb/March. 

The pattern has now gotten so predictable that you could pretty much guarantee another blocky late winter/early spring and torch Jan/Feb.

Late Feb ? Not that long

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

wow, when you say that, you know it's bad.    I see little to get excited about-a couple of small window of opportunity, but next few weeks looks bad-MJO heading to a strong 4/5 just like last year.

We are going into 7 and 8 for a short time and then the bad phases. This isnt like last year.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Fair point-my point was more that he's always barking cold/snow so when he's not you know it's REAL bad

Can't argue with that. He was saying a few years back he expected some atmospheric cooling leading to colder winters. I got better luck asking an astrologist.

[MJO812]

Seems like winter begins every year in February and  continues into late March. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We are going into 7 and 8 for a short time and then the bad phases. This isnt like last year.

Last year had little to no snow, how is this year different?    Same problem, poor MJO plus a lousy PAC, same result-rainy and average to mild with some cold thrown in but as soon as storm comes it's an inland or cutter track.

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I would actually have to check; I know they usually go with New Brunswick, but there were some storms, like 2018, where they had close to a foot and we had 3-4 inches, 15 minutes down the tpk. No big storms here at all since 2016. 16-17 and 17-18 were really unremarkable here. I often had coworkers come in to work from Monmouth Cty or the hills of N Jersey and they couldn't believe how little we had. Pick a storm, we underperformed. I often got heat here from people who didn't believe me, most of them gone the last two years due to lack of storms, thank goodness.One day in March 2018 we had about 3 inches, heck two times, and people were jumping on me telling me that's not possible, as if I can't see for myself and report accurately. Same thing during the "bomb" cyclone; it just wasn't happening here and we topped out at just under 7. Colleagues had over a foot 20 minutes down the parkway. I really don't know why, during one storm JM ? said it was subsidence and dry air. Mostly the bands skirt east of us for some reason, or we are too close to the bay. Don't know. It's unusual to jackpot here, 2016 and Boxing Day were exceptions.

But underperforming vs areas near you isnt the same as vs your average. If you dont know your average, how can you state that youre below average? Im guessing your average is probably in the 26-30” range, and im guessing at least 6 or 7 of the last 10 winters, including 2 of the last 3, youve probably reached at least 25”?

[donsutherland1]

MJO forecast update:

The GEFS now shows the MJO moving into the Maritime Continent phases at high amplitude. It was the last hold-out. 

The main caveat is that such MJO forecasts at the timescale involved are still low-skill forecasts.

It remains to be seen whether the EPS weeklies will deliver a fresh dose of misery later in the day.

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Can't argue with that. He was saying a few years back he expected some atmospheric cooling leading to colder winters. I got better luck asking an astrologist.

I honestly think the use of analogs from 50-75 years ago is less effective with different base states of oceans/atmosphere.  His LR forecasts rely heavily on those analogs

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

But what is your average? And what did you get in 2017-18? 16-17? I dont think youre below average most of the past few years. In fact id be willing to bet youve been above average at least 6 or 7 of the previous 10 winters.

So I went to Rutgers and they had the totals for my town as this: 2015-16, 33 inches ( 27 in one storm ),2016-17: 22 inches, 2018, 35 inches, 2019, 15 inches. If you go back further, sure. we had some big winters, but even then got a tad less than some nearby areas. Not sure why.

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Last year had little to no snow, how is this year different?    Same problem, poor MJO plus a lousy PAC, same result-rainy and average to mild with some cold thrown in but as soon as storm comes it's an inland or cutter track.

We had 3 snow events even though most of the area haven't seen alot. Some are above normal.

[weatherpruf]

25 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

But underperforming vs areas near you isnt the same as vs your average. If you dont know your average, how can you state that youre below average? Im guessing your average is probably in the 26-30” range, and im guessing at least 6 or 7 of the last 10 winters, including 2 of the last 3, youve probably reached at least 25”?

The last 10 winters, yes, but the last 3 no. It could be a long term trend or not. I guess my point was, perhaps not clear, is that the winters of my youth did not often have blockbuster winters that got 40-60 inches, granted it is not that long a period that I recall well, maybe a dozen years. But we did not have the kind of frequent storms we saw in 2011 or 2014, that I can recall. Also, this was a long time ago. I'm not young. I'm talking the 70's. We had some snow, but the only big one I recall was Feb 78. And that was 17 inches. And no one I knew had ever remembered anything like that. I was 14. It would be 1983 before we saw that again, and 1993 before we ( barely ) broke 10 inches. So it is not unusual to have mellow winters here, but they were colder on average. No tomato seedlings popping up in Dec like 2015.

[MJO812]

Some people are canceling winter which is foolish this early.