January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[snowman19]

  On 1/6/2020 at 5:52 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The extended range of the 12z GEFS is almost the opposite of what one would want to see if one is looking for sustained cold. More than likely, one is dealing with what will be a slow transition toward sustained cold (probably taking place during the last week of January). I've labeled what one would like to see as opposed to what the GEFS shows.

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It looks like a change to colder isn’t coming until early to mid February, the question then becomes, is it a sustained (through mid-March) period of colder or is it in and out? I’m favoring mid-February, I can see a period of colder, something like 2/15 - 3/15. Once you get past 3/15, deep winter goes on life support south of New England 

[SnoSki14]

  On 1/6/2020 at 4:13 PM, uncle W said:

January 1993 had the highest Jan AO on record and NYC got a little snow on the 10th and 15th...the February and March AO was closer to neutral and both months had above average snowfall and below average temperatures..record snowfall and cold in March that year...

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Of course JB is now using 1993 as his top analog after his disastrous January cold call. 

We'd be very lucky to see that show up later in Feb/March.

A lot of that will depend on the MJO. If it gets stuck or even circles back then we're done. If it gets into phase 7-1 then winter will return.

[Isotherm]

  On 1/6/2020 at 4:13 PM, bluewave said:

The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later  MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

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  On 1/6/2020 at 3:36 PM, Allsnow said:

The roundy plots continue to show the mjo wave getting into p8. I think one of the reasons the GEFS are stuck in the Niña pattern is because of its mjo forecast. It keeps it in 6 which imo is wrong. 

GEFS

 

euro

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[Allsnow]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:08 PM, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Looks like on those maps the mjo is on the border of 6/7 on the 29th (which might indicate it slows down in p6) then by feb 3 P8-1? And forcing in the western pac? If I’m correct, then that matches the Vp maps well. I also like the substance forming in the warm phases. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:03 PM, Allsnow said:

Scrape for us but a nice hit for the Mid Atlantic 

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That shortwave near the lakes is ruining this storm.

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:06 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Of course JB is now using 1993 as his top analog after his disastrous January cold call. 

We'd be very lucky to see that show up later in Feb/March.

A lot of that will depend on the MJO. If it gets stuck or even circles back then we're done. If it gets into phase 7-1 then winter will return.

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He isnt the only one using that analog. 

[Isotherm]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:12 PM, Allsnow said:

Looks like on those maps the mjo is on the border of 6/7 on the 29th (which might indicate it slows down in p6) then by feb 3 P8-1? And forcing in the western pac? If I’m correct, then that matches the Vp maps well. I also like the substance forming in the warm phases. 

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Yes, verbatim, those projections would indicate forcing reaching phase 8 (though at a much lower amplitude) by Feb 3rd. Those plots were also derived from Roundy's website.

[PB-99]

The trough axis will be back through or near the UWM by the 20th or so.

 

The negative pushes away from the WC and the actual 0 line is down towards N/C

 

The ridge will be starting to fade by the 25th, say goodbye after that. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

  On 1/6/2020 at 5:25 PM, binbisso said:

Yeah it's going to be insane you get the UK set up and that's a bad ice storm for central New England North maybe even pressing down into our farthest northwest suburbs. If you get that second shortwave to weaken as has been the case inside of five days this winter so far that's definitely a possibility. also 60s New York City on South teens Albany North what a temperature contrast

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agree-Cleveland to CNE looks to be ground zero-some models putting out 2 inches of ZR.  Ouch

[snowman19]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:12 PM, Allsnow said:

Looks like on those maps the mjo is on the border of 6/7 on the 29th (which might indicate it slows down in p6) then by feb 3 P8-1? And forcing in the western pac? If I’m correct, then that matches the Vp maps well. I also like the substance forming in the warm phases. 

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Assuming it finally does actually propagate and goes 8-1 in early February, the change probably would not be felt here until mid-February with the lag correct? I’m thinking the colder period is something like 2/15 - 3/15

[MJO812]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:17 PM, PB-99 said:

The trough axis will be back through or near the lake by the 25th or so.

 

The negative pushes away from the WC and the actual 0 line is down towards N/C

 

The ridge will be fading by the 25th, say goodbye. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Alot of cold air building in Canada right now.  Be prepared when the pattern does change.

[PB-99]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:19 PM, Snow88 said:

Alot of cold air building in Canada right now.  Be prepared when the pattern does change.

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It will be in by Feb 1 if not a few days prior.

 

But Feb 1 - March 20 has not changed. 

[PB-99]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:17 PM, snowman19 said:

Assuming it finally does actually propagate and goes 8-1 in early February, the change probably would not be felt here until mid-February with the lag correct? I’m thinking the colder period is something like 2/15 - 3/15

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[PB-99]

There`s no lag with the vortex in Canada lol.

 

Once the forcing pushes the negative away from the WC it displaces the ridge.

You can see it in it`s weak SD in the SE .

 

The cold comes immediately. 

 

It`s a function of how fast can you get into 7 and displace the NEG E of the ROCKIES  like the EPS and Canadian are doing. 

 

The GEFS is alone at 500. 

[Allsnow]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:17 PM, Isotherm said:

 

Yes, verbatim, those projections would indicate forcing reaching phase 8 (though at a much lower amplitude) by Feb 3rd. Those plots were also derived from Roundy's website.

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Hopefully, we can get a p8 response. I still think we improve the pattern by the end of the month. But as you said it can’t really get much worst then this weekend lol. Even in p7 we wouldn’t be bias warm, I would think it would be more ups and downs between warm/cold. 

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:38 PM, Allsnow said:

Hopefully, we can get a p8 response. I still think we improve the pattern by the end of the month. But as you said it can’t really get much worst then this weekend lol. Even in p7 we wouldn’t be bias warm, I would think it would be more ups and downs between warm/cold. 

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Yea in the old days I would've seen this weekend as a disaster but at this point I don't care if it's in the mid 60s in the middle of winter, I don't mind if it's comfortable out and it looks like we may not even get that much rain being on the southern edge of the precip field

[Allsnow]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:17 PM, snowman19 said:

Assuming it finally does actually propagate and goes 8-1 in early February, the change probably would not be felt here until mid-February with the lag correct? I’m thinking the colder period is something like 2/15 - 3/15

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There can be a lag but it’s not 100% of the time. You won’t get high amplitude in the cold phases as it doesn’t work that way. But your colder period could very well be correct. It’s really all a guess at this point lol 

[CIK62]

AccuWeather just changed their January forecast made only on New Years Day, from +1  to a +6 for NYC.       This will only happen they say with a favorable outcome of the MJO and a favorable SWEvent.

JB still trying to get out of a Full Nelson Hold that has cut off the circulation to his brain.

[Brian5671]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:51 PM, CIK62 said:

AccuWeather just changed their January forecast made only on New Years Day, from +1  to a +6 for NYC.       This will only happen they say with a favorable outcome of the MJO and a favorable SWEvent.

JB still trying to get out of a Full Nelson Hold that has cut off the circulation to his brain.

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 A plus 5 or 6 is almost a  certainty unless the cold comes rushing in gangbusters around 1/20 give or take.

[PB-99]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:59 PM, Brian5671 said:

 A plus 5 or 6 is almost a  certainty unless the cold comes rushing in gangbusters around 1/20 give or take.

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You will not erase 20 to 25 days of big anomalies.  The cold will not just barrel in, you will def step down if the progression is 7 into 8 etc.

The real cold would show up in Feb and could stay a while. 

But Jan is / has been cooked and no one is trying to deny that. 

The issue is when do you start to step down, after the 20th or after the 25th etc

[snowman19]

  On 1/6/2020 at 7:08 PM, PB-99 said:

 

You will not erase 20 to 25 days of big anomalies.  The cold will not just barrel in, you will def step if the progression is 7 into 8 etc.

The real cold would show up in Feb and could stay a while. 

But Jan is/ has been cooked and no one is trying to deny that. 

The issue is when do you start to step down, after the 20th or after the 25th etc

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I honestly have not seen anyone deny that January is a total lost cause. I think everyone has conceded. I agree that the change comes in February, assuming the propagation into 7, 8, 1 really happens at the beginning of February. Question is, is this a sustained cold change into mid-March or is it a quick hit of colder, then back to warmer than normal?  I don’t think that can be answered definitively until we get into early February 

[donsutherland1]

  On 1/6/2020 at 6:05 PM, snowman19 said:

It looks like a change to colder isn’t coming until early to mid February, the question then becomes, is it a sustained (through mid-March) period of colder or is it in and out? I’m favoring mid-February, I can see a period of colder, something like 2/15 - 3/15. Once you get past 3/15, deep winter goes on life support south of New England 

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I don't think one will have to wait until February 15, mainly for two reasons:

1. Since 1974, the overwhelming majority (88%) of cases that saw the MJO peak in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-15 period progressed to Phases 7 and 8. Until the MJO plots are within 7 days or so, I believe the base case is just such a progression.

2. The impact of strong AO+/PNA- regimes on the hemispheric pattern can take some time to wind down (majority of such cases). But once they do, a sustained period of troughing in the means often develops for the East (February 1993 is one example). Those that rapidly collapse often see a temporary period of troughing followed by a return to the predominant AO+/PNA-/ridge in the East pattern (February 2000 is one example).

So, at least for now, relying on the above, I think the base case is a warmer than normal January 16-31 period, but not as warm relative to normal as the January 1-15 period. Attempts at developing a trough in the East prior to at least January 20 will probably be short-lived. The closing week of January could turn colder. Afterward, the cold could generally prevail for perhaps at least the first half of February.

 

[Brian5671]

  On 1/6/2020 at 7:20 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I don't think one will have to wait until February 15, mainly for two reasons:

1. Since 1974, the overwhelming majority (88%) of cases that saw the MJO peak in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-15 period progressed to Phases 7 and 8. Until the MJO plots are within 7 days or so, I believe the base case is just such a progression.

2. The impact of strong AO+/PNA- regimes on the hemispheric pattern can take some time to wind down (majority of such cases). But once they do, a sustained period of troughing in the means often develops for the East (February 1993 is one example). Those that rapidly collapse often see a temporary period of troughing followed by a return to the predominant AO+/PNA-/ridge in the East pattern (February 2000 is one example).

So, at least for now, relying on the above, I think the base case is a warmer than normal January 16-31 period, but not as warm relative to normal as the January 1-15 period. Attempts at developing a trough in the East prior to at least January 20 will probably be short-lived. The closing week of January could turn colder. Afterward, the cold could generally prevail for perhaps at least the first half of February.

 

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99-00 was a horrid winter outside of 3 weeks in late January/Early Feb.   We did have the big 1/25/00 surprise which was fun

[PB-99]

EPS DAY 13- 15 BYE SE RIDGE. 

 

Winter returns on Jan 19 on the EPS.

Even if it`s 5 days early, that ejected a lot faster than the guidance would imply. 

 

[wishcast_hater]

Joe Bastardi says winter will return: 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

  On 1/6/2020 at 8:31 PM, wishcast_hater said:

Joe Bastardi says winter will return: 

 

 

 

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Eps and geps look really good by the 20th

[PB-99]

[PB-99]

  On 1/6/2020 at 8:59 PM, bluewave said:

 

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Yes, Eric favors the EPS 

[PB-99]

Think the EPS and Canadian Ensembles may be a tick early but thinks that where it goes by the 25th or so.

I like that date too,  however the EPS seems very fast with this flip as it`s just ejecting the NEG faster. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

  On 1/6/2020 at 8:33 PM, Snow88 said:

Eps and geps look really good by the 20th

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I saw this 88 we can only hope as Im getting tired of being abused by the snow haters lol

[PB-99]

  On 1/6/2020 at 9:30 PM, bluewave said:

I don’t really trust any of the ensembles at day 15 ranges. But the EPS has a problem with MJO transitions from phase 5 to 6. It’s one of the few times that the CFS can beat the EPS. Whether this is the issue now  is hard to know. We can also see -EPO’s develop  in unfavorable MJO phases. So the issue between the models could be independent of the MJO and more EPO related. 
 

Predictability and Prediction Skill of the MJO in Two Operational Forecasting Systems
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1

 

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It starts by day 11 not day 15.

 

The SE ridge ridge is becoming muted by day 11 ( You will see some height rises on day 12 but that`s due to the EPS seeing LP coming off OBX and working it`s way to CC.

 

The trough from this point forward drives out to the center of the CONUS. D 13- 15.

 

Once that happens that SE ridge is gone. There is to much Vortex in your Hemisphere and once the MJO starts to race towards 7 and away from 6 , the response will be to push the negative E of the Rockies.

 

The Canadian Ensembles are in the EPS camp. 

 

So I suspect the EPS could be a few days too fast and a return towards a better pattern by the 25th is here.

 

The EPS does give you a hint of an EC storm on the 19th, but that`s too far to look at.