Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, Maureen said: A little dusting around Carteret as the holiday season comes to a close. spent yesterday taking it all down-got the outside stuff down as well since it was mild/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 46 degrees here in Treasure Island, Florida and people are dressed for below zero! Will rebound today to 67. Beautiful weather to get outside and not be too hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Ended up with about an inch on colder surfaces, with nothing on paved surfaces, so no impact at all from this little event. Nice surprise to see at least a little snow - was very pretty out there overnight and should be gone soon... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 36 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: 46 degrees here in Treasure Island, Florida and people are dressed for below zero! Will rebound today to 67. Beautiful weather to get outside and not be too hot! The cold front finally made it through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The cold front finally made it through. I was in S Florida for Xmas week, felt like a summer pattern-warm humid with passing sun showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I was in S Florida for Xmas week, felt like a summer pattern-warm humid with passing sun showers. Still stuck in this record SE ridge pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 You know it's bad when people get excited over a coating/dusting. Spring can't get here fast enough. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You know it's bad when people get excited over a coating/dusting. Spring can't get here fast enough. Winters over? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Picked up around 1" of snow overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 0.8 inches overnight, bringing the seasonal total to 15.6 At least I won't live to see the first snow less January in recorded history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I don't understand these elementary posts feb and march ? lol winter started like 16 days ago... Meteorological Winter began December 01st and ends February 28th. The general consensus is that most of January seems lost to receiving much snow, barring a significant change in the persistent Pacific jet and its influence on the overall pattern. That leaves February... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Meteorological Winter began December 01st and ends February 28th. The general consensus is that most of January seems lost to receiving much snow, barring a significant change in the persistent Pacific jet and its influence on the overall pattern. That leaves February... March has been a great month lately. However according to the CFS weeklies and monthlies it seems that we get a 2 to 2.5 week period of colder temps before the trough migrates west again. March now looks like January on the monthlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It’s high time we had an AN March....or Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Winters over? It could be. If this pattern locks in, the bulk of winter is done. Everything really went to hell in the past few weeks....gradient is there, but it's too far north to benefit us at the present time. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: spent yesterday taking it all down-got the outside stuff down as well since it was mild/dry. Fine display, well done. It would make a wonderful greeting card. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It could be. If this pattern locks in, the bulk of winter is done. Everything really went to hell in the past few weeks....gradient is there, but it's too far north to benefit us at the present time. Dude stop 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The roundy plots continue to show the mjo wave getting into p8. I think one of the reasons the GEFS are stuck in the Niña pattern is because of its mjo forecast. It keeps it in 6 which imo is wrong. GEFS euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It could be. If this pattern locks in, the bulk of winter is done. Everything really went to hell in the past few weeks....gradient is there, but it's too far north to benefit us at the present time. How would it do that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, PB-99 said: How would it do that ? certainly possible the MJO goes back into the COD and then re-emerges back into 4/5/6. We saw it happen last winter. Also need some help with the AO and PV especially. Alot to fix to get us into anything favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 On 1/6/2020 at 10:45 AM, Brian5671 said: certainly possible the MJO goes back into the COD and then re-emerges back into 4/5/6. We saw it happen last winter. Also need some help with the AO especially. Alot to fix to get us into anything favorable. The wave is moving off , I think Timmy illustrated the Roundy plots perfectly. The wave heads towards 7 and that alone pushes the negative into the midsection. There is convection in the L/R popping up in 8 and maybe 1. If we come off after 7/8 we are prob in really good shape. It could come back out anywhere. Most Jan`s with the plus 1.5 SD into p5 get back to 8 and the guidance is showing you that. The water at the D/L is very warm, plus 30 c so as the wave moves over convection should fire. Root for 70 degrees next weekend, there have so many instances where big winter departures have yielded big reversals. There really isn`t anything pointing to the end of winter, we have been on hard break since Dec 21 and it prob lasts through Jan 20. Then the SE ridge is pushed south on the EPS. ( losing 4 core weeks of winter hurts the winter but does not mean it ends it ) . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 January 1993 had the highest Jan AO on record and NYC got a little snow on the 10th and 15th...the February and March AO was closer to neutral and both months had above average snowfall and below average temperatures..record snowfall and cold in March that year... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see. I think you are approaching p7 by the last week of the month ( and although not cold ) , it relaxes the ridge in the SE and with the TPV in Canada you will turn less warm in the east. But cold enough to snow as the real 0 line at 850 is S of you. Then you look for a Scan ridge to develop and that would further push on the ridge and allow that very cold air to dislodge south out of E Canada , by the time we head towards Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I know it won't matter for us but the weekend storm is pretty interesting to track from a weather perspective, the temperature contrast is insane from north to south and the icing could be really bad for some in CNE/NNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I know it won't matter for us but the weekend storm is pretty interesting to track from a weather perspective, the temperature contrast is insane from north to south and the icing could be really bad for some in CNE/NNE Yeah it's going to be insane you get the UK set up and that's a bad ice storm for central New England North maybe even pressing down into our farthest northwest suburbs. If you get that second shortwave to weaken as has been the case inside of five days this winter so far that's definitely a possibility. also 60s New York City on South teens Albany North what a temperature contrast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: You know it's bad when people get excited over a coating/dusting. Spring can't get here fast enough. You know its bad when you characterize discussing weather on a weather forum as “excited”. Thought you were done posting till we had an event to track? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: This is one of those cases where S and W of NYC can do better. It’s not a true transfer but basically the vort gives way to a coastal low so there’s noticeably as you can tell a dead period from like TTN up to middle of CT before the coastal ramps up. A big reason the best looks are coming from the globals such as the UKMET/GFS is probably because they’re overdoing the QPF look in that corridor where as the mesos know there won’t be much there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The extended range of the 12z GEFS is almost the opposite of what one would want to see if one is looking for sustained cold. More than likely, one is dealing with what will be a slow transition toward sustained cold (probably taking place during the last week of January). I've labeled what one would like to see as opposed to what the GEFS shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z euro will be further northwest this run for tomorrow night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Scrape for us but a nice hit for the Mid Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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