January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I am skeptical considering the Euro's performance lately but it does seem to have some support from the GEFS/GEM.

whats up with the Euro anyway?  is this all because of that "upgrade"?

 

[NYCweatherNOW]

Euro has heavy precip but some is mixed here in the city. Good thing looks like this will happen during the early hours so the sun will minimize the warming.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

WOW at the 06z NAM.

 

SWFE?  Looks like a quick hit of snow before either changing to rain or if we're lucky ending as a period of drizzle.

 

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

whats up with the Euro anyway?  is this all because of that "upgrade"?

 

It is not what it once was after its last upgrade but apparently it still has the best verification scores, maybe someone else can confirm that. In the case of the storm this week it now seems to have good support from the other modes and its own control run.

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

SWFE?  Looks like a quick hit of snow before either changing to rain or if we're lucky ending as a period of drizzle.

 

Its really a Miller B which is why the heaviest amounts are further northeast.

[NYCweatherNOW]

that would be a great hit for our area!

[SnoSki14]

There was always a threat of a storm in this timeframe and we often see storms prior to a major pattern change.

However the pattern is very progressive so this one could easily skip through and give us zilch (see 06z GFS). 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There was always a threat of a storm in this timeframe and we often see storms prior to a major pattern change.

However the pattern is very progressive so this one could easily skip through and give us zilch (see 06z GFS). 

Nam and euro shifted west

[purduewx80]

Tuesday evening's setup is going to be sensitive to its convective nature. Steep lapse rates progged between 750-450mb. Also beware the fast flow progged the next 48h, another 150KT+ jet will be screaming across the country, so additional swings in the position of the low and resulting snow are likely.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Tuesday evening's setup is going to be sensitive to its convective nature. Steep lapse rates progged between 750-450mb. Also beware the fast flow progged the next 48h, another 150KT+ jet will be screaming across the country, so additional swings in the position of the low and resulting snow are likely.

Are the relevant shortwaves and other features in a well-sampled region or still off the Pacific?

[purduewx80]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Are the relevant shortwaves and other features in a well-sampled region or still off the Pacific?

coming ashore this morning but may not be fully sampled until 00Z tonight.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 38.5degs., or about 5.5degs. AN.

EURO is 5.5" on the 8th., then gleefully sends the T into the 60's for 5 straight days!^^^^^    CMC is 2" and the GFS is a Trace-but has 4" on the 16th.       More lousy verification scores incoming.

^^^^^ averages 61 or +(24)(5)=120/31 or about +4 added to monthly average all on its own.    Overall it is +16 for a 5-day period, adding +2.5 to a monthly tally which is otherwise normal, but we may be more than +6 w/o this eruption.      At any rate what we do know is that since the average daily T went AN 2-weeks ago, we have averaged +9.3!

39* here at 6am, windy.    38* at 7am.      41* during early PM.

[purduewx80]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 38.5degs., or about 5.5degs. AN.

EURO is 5.5" on the 8th., then gleefully sends the T into the 60's for 5 straight days!    CMC is 2" and the GFS is a Trace-but has 4" on the 16th.       More lousy verification scores incoming.

39* here at 6am.

No, it does not. It has 60s at EWR/NYC Sat-Sun and Tuesday.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

No, it does not. It has 60s at EWR/NYC Sat-Sun and Tuesday.

No chance of 70 is there- too much cloud cover?

 

[Rtd208]

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Oh so that 30.2 is above normal in F, not temps in C lol.

Still another massive anomaly, maybe close to the level of the 95 we had in early October?

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

No chance of 70 is there- too much cloud cover?

 

The 0z OP Euro was close. Has 70 degrees into Central NJ next weekend. The EPS mean was a little further south.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Euro further east with the snow

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z OP Euro was close. Has 70 degrees into Central NJ next weekend. The EPS mean was a little further south.

 

 

The traditional tendency is for the likelihood to increase.  In any case, is the 60+ period forecast to be more prolonged than it was the last time it hit 70 in January, Chris?  I think that previous January 70 temp was in 2007?

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The traditional tendency is for the likelihood to increase.  In any case, is the 60+ period forecast to be more prolonged than it was the last time it hit 70 in January, Chris?  I think that previous January 70 temp was in 2007?

 

2007 was the last time for Newark. But 64 degrees or warmer in January has become much more common.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1950	74	0
2	2007	72	0
3	2002	70	0
-	1998	70	0
-	1932	70	0
4	1974	69	0
5	2000	68	0
-	1967	68	0
6	2017	67	0
-	2005	67	0
-	1995	67	0
7	2013	66	0
-	2008	66	0
-	1993	66	0
-	1990	66	0
-	1975	66	0
-	1937	66	0
8	2016	65	0
-	1973	65	0
-	1972	65	0
9	2018	64	0
-	2012	64	0
-	1951	64	0
-	1947	64	0

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, the EPS and GEFS moved farther apart in the extended range with their 500 mb forecasts. For the GEFS, it is "Groundhog Day." Nothing more needs to be said about its forecast. The EPS begins to elongate the Aleutian High, until it reaches the Pacific Northwest. As a result, the trough over the west gets pushed eastward and the ridge in the East gets pushed eastward, as well.

For now, I continue to suspect that the pattern change will be more gradual than what is shown on the 0z EPS, especially as the EPS continues to forecast a negative PNA (perhaps a measure of some discontinuity with its 500 mb maps). The last week of January could turn colder. The progression of the MJO and state of the teleconnections will be important.

Twin "nightmare" scenarios for consideration:

1. The GEFS scores a "win." Efforts to knock down the ridge are quickly followed by a recovery of the ridge and the ridge remains resilient through the remainder of the month.

2. The pattern abruptly changes as the above normal height anomalies are rapidly elongated. However. the pattern change is short-lived as a fast Pacific jet leads to the above normal height anomalies eventually stretching across the CONUS leaving the below normal height anomalies over Canada and perhaps northern New England.

The underlying assumption is the continued strength of the polar vortex with a persistent AO+.

Interestingly enough, at 500 mb, both the EPS and GEFS remain in agreement over the fate of Europe. There, the unwelcome above-to-much above normal height anomalies will persist through the end of their forecast.

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

WOW at the 06z NAM.

 

Just when I thought I WAS OUT they pull me back IN !

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The traditional tendency is for the likelihood to increase.  In any case, is the 60+ period forecast to be more prolonged than it was the last time it hit 70 in January, Chris?  I think that previous January 70 temp was in 2007?

 

Temperatures at least reaching 60+ look like a good bet on the warmest days. But the location of the front will be critical for the exact temperatures. This is going to be an unusually wet January warm up. So the exact temperatures will probably have to wait to within 120 hrs.

Unusually wet January warm up

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Why are we talking about the warm up 5 days away when there is a potential snow storm 2 days away?

I have seen you guys BS about remote possibilities 10 days out more than the Tuesday storm!

This is the general pattern thread. Individual storm threats usually get their own thread. So start one after the 12z runs come in.

[donsutherland1]

Ahead of a strong cold shot, a system will likely bring precipitation to the region from Tuesday into Wednesday. Parts of the area could pick up a light snowfall (likely less than 2" for much of the region).

A greater chance for a moderate accumulation of snow (4" or more) exists for eastern New England, southeastern New Jersey, and eastern Long Island on account of the storm's beginning to intensify as it moves offshore toward the New England coastal waters.

A light snowfall scenario for the Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City areas is consistent with historic experience during very strong AO+ patterns during the first half of January.

The 6z NAM was an outlier with both its 0z run and the other guidance. The 12z NAM corrected back toward the consensus.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Ahead of a strong cold shot, a system will likely bring precipitation to the region from Tuesday into Wednesday. Parts of the area could pick up a light snowfall (likely less than 2" for much of the region).

A greater chance for a moderate accumulation of snow (4" or more) exists for eastern New England, southeastern New Jersey, and eastern Long Island on account of the storm's beginning to intensify as it moves offshore toward the New England coastal waters.

A light snowfall scenario for the Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City areas is consistent with historic experience during very strong AO+ patterns during the first half of January.

The 6z NAM was an outlier with both its 0z run and the other guidance. The 12z NAM corrected back toward the consensus.

I think that people have become warm out by how fickle the models have been with snowfall forecasts this winter. Seems like everyone just wants to wait until nowcast time to see what happens. 

[snowman19]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that people have become warm out by how fickle the models have been with snowfall forecasts this winter. Seems like everyone just wants to wait until nowcast time to see what happens. 

The models have been shockingly horrible so far this winter, the NAM most recently with the two outlier runs in a row, the Euro has been exceptionally awful

[snowman19]

23 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

If at all.   

No guarantee on 7/8-that's out in lala land at this point

2012 was a dry inferno after the 10 day winter in January-March was dry and 60's and 70's and we even had an 80 or 2.   

The extreme warmth back in March, 2012 was unreal. I remember having to put on my air conditioner a couple days after St. Patrick’s Day, temps were well into the 80’s

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models have been shockingly horrible so far this winter, the NAM most recently with the two outlier runs in a row, the Euro has been exceptionally awful

Individual storm details have been very difficult beyond a few days with the firehose Pacific Jet. Too many different shortwaves for the models to correctly resolve further out. The one recent constant has been temperatures verifying warmer than guidance. Yesterday was the 14th day in a row with above normal temperatures.

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2019-12-22	2.5
2019-12-23	13.8
2019-12-24	6.5
2019-12-25	4.7
2019-12-26	6.5
2019-12-27	15.7
2019-12-28	12.9
2019-12-29	7.6
2019-12-30	5.3
2019-12-31	6.9
2020-01-01	4.1
2020-01-02	7.7
2020-01-03	13.4
2020-01-04	13.0

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Best bet is to hope for the best but expect the worst until if and when we see a pattern change. Otherwise it’s wash rinse repeat.