January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at the CFS weeklies and extrapolating, the last 2 weeks look good but the trough in the east already looks to be migrating to the west again. I would hate to think that we are only looking at a 2 week window of opportunity before it goes warm again. May be one of those winters. 

Not sure but many people think February and March will be really good  with the MJO traveling into 7 and 8.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe a bit of snow during the week?

Models are trending more progressive 

This is actually something to track in this garbage winter, even if it is only an inch or so. We all know the period after this is an abomination.   I think that has been discussed ad nauseam at this point.  

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Not sure but many people think February and March will be really good  with the MJO traveling into 7 and 8.

Yeah we would definitely get a window, just hope it's not limited. We can score big with a 4 week window, however 2 weeks is another story. 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/3/2020 at 9:44 AM, bluewave said:

If the new EPS is correct about the MJO continuing into at least phase 6, then the warmth will extend well into late January. It would probably take until early February to reach the colder phases if the MJO doesn’t weaken first.

Chris, from a historical analog perspective, dont stable patterns like this last for about 6-8 weeks?

Let's look at similar patterns from the past:

1989-90

2005-06

2006-07

There are others I cant remember at the moment.

2005-06 was similar to this winter in that we started December cold and on the snowy side; the change to warmer occurred around Dec 10-15.  January was toasty and we didn't get back to cold again until the second week of February.  So that was about 60 days of mild weather?

2006-07 had about 7 weeks of mild weather, from about the middle of December to the middle of February.

1989-90 was the most extreme case, where we went from a cold December to a warm January, February and March.  So about 90 days of mild weather.  We ended up getting a light snow event in early April which ended the pattern.

But wasn't that also around a solar maximum? And we're near a minimum now, so I favor the first two options.  Our mild period started around Dec 22 (the first day of winter, ironically enough) so I predict it should end by Feb 20.... thoughts?

 

edit- how can I forget 2015-16?!

Record warm December and the pattern flipped around January 15 or so and we had a historic snowstorm after that around the 20th.  So that was a 45 day period of mildness.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah we would definitely get a window, just hope it's not limited. We can score big with a 4 week window, however 2 weeks is another story. 

Yes I am looking at years like 2005-06 where we had a large window in February and March and only really scored once- in the big blizzard.

In 2006-07, we also had an extended period of cold (that lasted from February through April) but had mostly ice and sleet events.

In 2015-16 the mild period ended with a big bang with Jonas on Jan 20 and the below zero morning on V-Day.  We also had the snow event where the crane fell in NYC (heavy snow out on the Island.)

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles are quite wet, the active Pacific jet will keep feeding us moisture.

It's like a tropical pattern in January.

NYC is the new Seattle.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I saw that. This could be one of our warmest January 10th to 20th periods on record.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jan 10 to Jan 20	Missing Count
1	1932-01-20	46.6	0
2	1995-01-20	44.3	0
3	1937-01-20	41.7	0
4	2006-01-20	41.6	0
5	1933-01-20	41.4	0

Might as well set a record- what are the model predictions for that period?

[LibertyBell]

Didn't we have a somewhat active winter at the end of the 2011-12 winter too?  Was that just relegated to late March?  So bad after Snowtober until March?

And in 1997-98 we only had the one storm in late March, but that was an extreme El Nino, which in our new extreme climate seems to be how the Pacific is behaving right now.

 

 

[Fantom X]

14 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

This is actually hilarious if true.  

They could have existed, and maybe human-induced climate changed has caused them to cease to exist.. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes I am looking at years like 2005-06 where we had a large window in February and March and only really scored once- in the big blizzard.

In 2006-07, we also had an extended period of cold (that lasted from February through April) but had mostly ice and sleet events.

In 2015-16 the mild period ended with a big bang with Jonas on Jan 20 and the below zero morning on V-Day.  We also had the snow event where the crane fell in NYC (heavy snow out on the Island.)

 

Of those 3 I reached average (30 to 35 inches) 2005 2006 due to 20.5 in that big storm and 2015 2016 due to a string of 4 events (11.5, 9,5,1.5 and a hail marry 3 incher on March 21). 2006 2007 was well below average snowfall but if I remember correctly was frigid! The 6 inch sleet storm was cool though.

Only 5 here this year. I feel that we are looking at a period instead of a pattern flip. Hopefully I am wrong.

 

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I saw that. This could be one of our warmest January 10th to 20th periods on record.

Temps should be +15 to +20 degrees AN with very warm mins and possibly 60+ highs. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have a somewhat active winter at the end of the 2011-12 winter too?  Was that just relegated to late March?  So bad after Snowtober until March?

And in 1997-98 we only had the one storm in late March, but that was an extreme El Nino, which in our new extreme climate seems to be how the Pacific is behaving right now.

 

 

Nope. We had 1 storm in Jan that dropped 6. That and the October storm that dropped 5. The entire winter was warm and the 6 inch event was a lucky trailing wave if memory serves. That winter was far more hopeless.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Of those 3 I reached average (30 to 35 inches) 2005 2006 due to 20.5 in that big storm and 2015 2016 due to a string of 4 events (11.5, 9,5,1.5 and a hail marry 3 incher on March 21). 2006 2007 was well below average snowfall but if I remember correctly was frigid! The 6 inch sleet storm was cool though.

Only 5 here this year. I feel that we are looking at a period instead of a pattern flip. Hopefully I am wrong.

 

the ones that only had a period rather than a pattern flip were

1989-90

1997-98

2001-02

2011-12

The totals in those years speak for themselves, ugh.

2006-07 could have been a lot better for us, that was some pattern flip to cold and lasted a long time.  The first three weeks of April were colder than the first three weeks of January lol it hit 70 in early January (on the 11 year anniversary of the Jan 1996 blizzard if I remember right) and didn't hit 70 again until the last week of April.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nope. We had 1 storm in Jan that dropped 6. That and the October storm that dropped 5. The entire winter was warm and the 6 inch event was a lucky trailing wave if memory serves. That winter was far more hopeless.

I can see why I forgot that winter lol.  We only got 1.5 inches in the October storm (still historic).  I dont even remember the January event.  Nothing in March?

In quite a few of these extremely mild winter months we've had a renegade 1-3 inch event or two (I remember one in January 2006 that dumped 3 inches).

Also, another mild winter, 2007-08, had a renegade SWFE that dropped 6-8 inches here around Feb 22, a positive bust which somewhat made up for the negative bust of the notorious "Heavy Snow Warning" fail in Jan 2008.

 

[MJO812]

What's with all the doom?

Mjo looks pretty good  at the end of this month 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Temps should be +15 to +20 degrees AN with very warm mins and possibly 60+ highs. 

Maybe a 70 in there somewhere if we can get Jan 2007 style warmth.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, the base state was Niña so we got that response in February. -pna with troughs diving into the west coast. 

Sometimes we get a delayed response, like a la nina after an el nino can be very snowy- for example 95-96 and 10-11.

 

[purduewx80]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe a 70 in there somewhere if we can get Jan 2007 style warmth.

 

In my opinion the pattern is too wet/humid to get that in NYC proper. Maybe the DC area and inland southern NJ. As others have mentioned, this is going to be a foggy/wet pattern for most of us.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

We got lucky in March when the strong -EPO disrupted the unfavorable pattern. But there was enough of a lingering influence so the best snows were NYC-LI North Shore, and CT. I only got about 4” here on the South Shore last March.
 

 

massive differences between historically backloaded winters like 2014-15 and 1966-67 vs a period of cold/snow in late winters like that one.

 

[winterwx21]

50 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

This is actually something to track in this garbage winter, even if it is only an inch or so. We all know the period after this is an abomination.   I think that has been discussed ad nauseam at this point.  

The problem is the airmass will be very borderline. The colder air doesn't really come in until after the event on wednesday. So if there ends up being some mix or snow with light accumulations, it would probably be an event for well to the north and west on tuesday into tuesday night. Most likely rain or some mix and non accumulating snow near the coast. Wednesday looks like a cold windy day. A decent shot of cold air before the much talked about big warm pattern settles in friday.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

In my opinion the pattern is too wet/humid to get that in NYC proper. Maybe the DC area and inland southern NJ. As others have mentioned, this is going to be a foggy/wet pattern for most of us.

I was thinking that too, this is almost like the winter version of our now all-too-common wet summers with humid highs of 88 and 89 and dew points above 70 or 75 on a regular basis and overachievingly high mins.

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s becoming clear that any large scale long wave pattern change is going to have to wait until early-mid February

If at all.   

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Not sure but many people think February and March will be really good  with the MJO traveling into 7 and 8.

No guarantee on 7/8-that's out in lala land at this point

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have a somewhat active winter at the end of the 2011-12 winter too?  Was that just relegated to late March?  So bad after Snowtober until March?

And in 1997-98 we only had the one storm in late March, but that was an extreme El Nino, which in our new extreme climate seems to be how the Pacific is behaving right now.

 

 

2012 was a dry inferno after the 10 day winter in January-March was dry and 60's and 70's and we even had an 80 or 2.   

[Yanksfan]

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What's with all the doom?

Mjo looks pretty good  at the end of this month 

The problem is what does the MJO do afterwards. If it stays in the 8-1-2 phase, February and March will rock. However there is still concern it traverses into the COD before back peddling to 4-5. If that happens the winter is toast. Our fate should become much clearer in the next week or two.

[Isotherm]

19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What's with all the doom?

Mjo looks pretty good  at the end of this month 

 

 

 

Keep in mind, the phase 7-MJO response is still a warm one for the E US, although cold-air transport into the Plains increases. One would need continued propagation into phase 8 at amplitude for potential/putative pattern amelioration [and as discussed yesterday by Bluewave and I, propagation into 8 is not necessarily a guarantee of a significant pattern change, either -- many factors involved].

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

Keep in mind, the phase 7-MJO response is still a warm one for the E US, although cold-air transport into the Plains increases. One would need continued propagation into phase 8 at amplitude for potential/putative pattern amelioration [and as discussed yesterday by Bluewave and I, propagation into 8 is not necessarily a guarantee of a significant pattern change, either -- many factors involved].

Yes but it looks way better than what the pattern shows now.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If at all.   

No guarantee on 7/8-that's out in lala land at this point

2012 was a dry inferno after the 10 day winter in January-March was dry and 60's and 70's and we even had an 80 or 2.   

wow sounds a lot like how I remember 1989-90

Funny how I remember 1989-90 better than I do 2011-12 lol.

 

[MJO812]

Anyone mentioning about the storm during the week? It's getting more progressive and further east. We should watch that especially inland areas.

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Anyway mentioning about the storm during the week? It's getting more progressive and further east. We should watch that especially inland areas.

The problem is it's going to be 40 degrees on tuesday. Even if it comes in as wet snow rather than rain near the coast, it would likely be non accumulating snow or a light accumulation on colder surfaces at best. It looks like an event for well to the north and west rather than near the coast. Very borderline airmass, as the colder air doesn't come in until behind the storm. Wednesday will be colder and windy.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The problem is it's going to be 40 degrees on tuesday. Even if it comes in as wet snow rather than rain near the coast, it would likely be non accumulating snow or a light accumulation on colder surfaces at best. It looks like an event for well to the north and west rather than near the coast. Very borderline airmass, as the colder air doesn't come in until behind the storm. Wednesday will be colder and windy.

The models are trending more favorable.  This isnt a inland low anymore.

Latest Ukie

 

[Zelocita Weather]

Looks like a decent light snow event for most in region this week