January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[uncle W]

1995...

[CIK62]

Based on traveling 30-Day Periods,  the EURO Weeklies are near Normal for us Jan. 15---Feb. 14.      The Control is never Normal for its duration of 46 days, based on those 30 day chunks.     The S.E. never gets near Normal.        I think a spot like Tampa, is coming up on two full years w/o a BN month.

[donsutherland1]

51 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Even when I look at the EPS and GEFS stringing LP out through the N/E  it just looks like  L/R lake cutters that drags a C/F through the area for a few days.

Can`t have the negative in the SW unless the troughs that come out are all positively tilted and then can run the baroclinic zone.

 

Even then I never like that look without blocking, the flow tends to ride further N as we get closer. 

 

I agree. 

While most cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at very high amplitude during January 5-20 progressed to Phases 7 and 8, there were a cluster of such cases where ridging on the East Coast persisted in the means in the period 10-25 days after the MJO peaked in Phase 4.  January 1990 is one such example. The cluster is sufficiently large relative to the whole sample that the scenario cannot be dismissed just yet. If it plays out, then the second half of January would wind up warmer than normal overall, even if colder air arrives late in the month. 

[SnowGoose69]

59 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Even when I look at the EPS and GEFS stringing LP out through the N/E  it just looks like  L/R lake cutters that drags a C/F through the area for a few days.

Can`t have the negative in the SW unless the troughs that come out are all positively tilted and then can run the baroclinic zone.

 

Even then I never like that look without blocking, the flow tends to ride further N as we get closer. 

 

The pattern is pretty active which may prevent there being absurd warm anomalies this month, even for places in the SE US because as long as we keep getting systems ejecting out of that trof we are going to continue having FROPAs in the East.  Even if they’re inducing modified Pac air it doesn’t seem at any point we see a sustained SER with bright sunshine for days on end 

[PB-99]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The pattern is pretty active which may prevent there being absurd warm anomalies this month, even for places in the SE US because as long as we keep getting systems ejecting out of that trof we are going to continue having FROPAs in the East.  Even if they’re inducing modified Pac air it doesn’t seem at any point we see a sustained SER with bright sunshine for days on end 

 

A good sign is that starting on day 13 on the GEFS , the Scan ridge is showing signs of forcing higher heights towards Greenland. It begins to help force the trough south which presses on the SE ridge d 13 - d 15.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

A good sign is that starting on day 13 on the GEFS , the Scan ridge is showing signs of forcing higher heights towards Greenland. It begins to help force the trough south which presses on the SE ridge d 13 - d 15.

Ultimately it’ll probably come down to the MJO from 1/20 or 1/25 onward.  If it goes back through 4-5-6 this winter is done.  If it stays quiet it could possibly be a big 6-8 week period 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Ultimately it’ll probably come down to the MJO from 1/20 or 1/25 onward.  If it goes back through 4-5-6 this winter is done.  If it stays quiet it could possibly be a big 6-8 week period 

You can see substance developing in the warm phases on the roundy plots. Let’s hope that’s the case after we get out of p6. But it’s in the long range and convection is unpredictable 

[PB-99]

The CFS dries everything out once this wave gets past d 15.

 

If that`s right then FEB is big.  ( which has always been my best month ) - 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You can see substance developing in the warm phases on the roundy plots. Let’s hope that’s the case after we get out of p6. But it’s in the long range and convection is unpredictable 

If you back 5-7 days ago and check the ECMWF MJO forecasts you can see why they are so unpredictable.  The only thing it still appears to have the same is that it goes to 4-5 but how it gets there has become delayed and it goes through 3 now first.  It just tells you anything beyond Day 7 on those forecasts is iffy.   

[Brian5671]

49 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Based on traveling 30-Day Periods,  the EURO Weeklies are near Normal for us Jan. 15---Feb. 14.      The Control is never Normal for its duration of 46 days, based on those 30 day chunks.     The S.E. never gets near Normal.        I think a spot like Tampa, is coming up on two full years w/o a BN month.

SE ridge on roids last 2 years....as noted above, very Nina like

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you back 5-7 days ago and check the ECMWF MJO forecasts you can see why they are so unpredictable.  The only thing it still appears to have the same is that it goes to 4-5 but how it gets there has become delayed and it goes through 3 now first.  It just tells you anything beyond Day 7 on those forecasts is iffy.   

The EPS has been on this MJO phase 4-5 since Christmas. But it’s normal for the models to correct more amplified the closer in they get. 

 

[PB-99]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

SE ridge on roids last 2 years....as noted above, very Nina like

SE ridge is pushed S week 3 - 4 -5 on the weeklies, he doesn`t know what he is talking about 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

SE ridge is pushed S week 3 - 4 -5 on the weeklies, he doesn`t know what he is talking about 

weeklies have been iffy past week 3-4, I would not put too much stock in those-remember last year?  Horrid beyond a doubt.  With that said, if we CAN get the ridge pushed far enough south and there's good cold to the north, could be a nice conveyor belt of storms/battle zone-we just need to be on the right side of it.

[PB-99]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

weeklies have been iffy past week 3, I would not put too much stock in those-remember last year?  Horrid beyond a doubt.  With that said, if we CAN get the ridge pushed far enough south and there's good cold to the north, could be a nice conveyor belt of storms/battle zone-we just need to be on the right side of it.

 

I am not putting any stock in any 1 model, I am just replying to your post that the SE would be on roids.

 

That`s not what the weeklies show week 3- 4 -5.

 

SE ridge is in the means, but muted compared to week 2. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

 

I am not putting any stock in any 1 model, I am just replying to your post that the SE would be on roids.

 

That`s not what the weeklies show week 3- 4 -5.

 

SE ridge is in the means, but muted compared to week 2. 

my comment was noting that it's been on roids last 2 years, not neccesarily going forward...(but that would not shock me given the dumpster fire we find ourselves in) 

[PB-99]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

my comment was noting that it's been on roids last 2 years, not neccesarily going forward...(but that would not shock me given the dumpster fire we find ourselves in) 

 

Well the POS TNH has been a blessing for the UMW and NNE and obv hurt us.

Nov 1 - Dec 20 was WBN , No ridge 

Dec 21- Jan 20 ends WAN , Big ridge 

What does Jan 21 - March 10 hold ? 

There`s your winter.

I think the puke period is a break and not the end of winter.

[purduewx80]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

not that I take Joe Bastardi too seriously, since I was a kid all he has really done is predicted cold and snow lol, BUT from his twitter:

 

"warm water remains anchored in the NE Pac. MJO response into phase 4 and 5 likely due to very warm water NW of Australia. Major warm rotation in Jan 1993 ( 4,5,6) but once it came off, winter spread east"

seems like every year he hints at March '93 #eyeroll

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

not that I take Joe Bastardi too seriously, since I was a kid all he has really done is predicted cold and snow lol, BUT from his twitter:

 

"warm water remains anchored in the NE Pac. MJO response into phase 4 and 5 likely due to very warm water NW of Australia. Major warm rotation in Jan 1993 ( 4,5,6) but once it came off, winter spread east"

Let's hope, but when was the last time we saw a good 7/8/1/2 rotation?     My concern is that it goes into the COD and then comes back to 4/5/6 again

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

I am not putting any stock in any 1 model, I am just replying to your post that the SE would be on roids.

 

That`s not what the weeklies show week 3- 4 -5.

 

SE ridge is in the means, but muted compared to week 2. 

Seems like the SE ridge has been correcting stronger than indicated by long range forecasts as long as the PAC ridge axis has been closer to the Aleutians. We also saw this last winter with the ridge north of Hawaii. Complete opposite of the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. We can remember the long range EPS showing the ridge over NW Canada and still had a hint of the SE ridge. But as we got closer in, the SE ridge would always disappear.

 

 

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The pattern is pretty active which may prevent there being absurd warm anomalies this month, even for places in the SE US because as long as we keep getting systems ejecting out of that trof we are going to continue having FROPAs in the East.  Even if they’re inducing modified Pac air it doesn’t seem at any point we see a sustained SER with bright sunshine for days on end 

I doubt the SE escapes historic warmth but I agree around here. Our + anomalies may be strongly skewed by above normal low temps. 

Overall this is a gradient pattern with frequent snow events in NNE, SE Canada and way upstate, while we see soaker after soaker. 2020 starting off very 2010s so far.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

I doubt the SE escapes historic warmth but I agree around here. Our + anomalies may be strongly skewed by above normal low temps. 

Overall this is a gradient pattern with frequent snow events in NNE, SE Canada and way upstate, while we see soaker after soaker. 2020 starting off very 2010s so far.

Time to plan a ski trip to VT, ME or NH....

[PB-99]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Let's hope, but when was the last time we saw a good 7/8/1/2 rotation?     My concern is that it goes into the COD and then comes back to 4/5/6 again

November 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

November 

Total waste-way too early for good snows most of the time.   Need that in February

[PB-99]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Seems like the SE ridge has been correcting stronger than indicated by long range forecasts as long as the PAC ridge axis has been closer to the Aleutians. We also saw this last winter with the ridge north of Hawaii. Complete opposite of the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. We can remember the long range EPS showing the ridge over NW Canada and still had a hint of the SE ridge. But as we got closer in, the SE ridge would always disappear.

 

 

 

Nov 1 - Dec 20 it took a break as the MJO forced in 7 / 8 / 1 / 2.

The SE ridge was non existent because of that forcing. 

We were aided by a retrograding Scan ridge which the GEFS is now hinting at.

 

If the MJO goes back towards 8 like I think it will the SE ridge will get pressed on.  That`s what I believe happens for Feb into early March. 

[PB-99]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Total waste-way too early for good snows most of the time.   Need that in February

Agreed. 

 

You asked a question I was just answering it for you. 

 

Now I think we go there in Feb, I was AN for Dec and Jan and had Feb 1- March 20 as my core of winter.  Fingers crossed.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

You asked a question I was just answering it for you. 

 

Now I think we go there in Feb, I was AN for Dec and Jan and had Feb 1- March 20 as my core of winter.  Fingers crossed.

 

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Nov 1 - Dec 20 it took a break as the MJO forced in 7 / 8 / 1 / 2.

The SE ridge was non existent because of that forcing. 

We were aided by a retrograding Scan ridge which the GEFS is now hinting at.

 

If the MJO goes back towards 8 like I think it will the SE ridge will get pressed on.  That`s what I believe happens for Feb into early March. 

 

Even though the SE ridge didn’t show up In the means into early December, the cutter and hugger storm tracks would briefly kick it up. So in effect, we had a transient SE ridge for our storms. That’s how Albany had 27.9 inches of snow in December to only 2.5 in NYC.

[PB-99]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even though the SE ridge didn’t show up In the means into early December, the cutter and hugger storm tracks would briefly kick it up. So in effect, we had a transient SE ridge for our storms. That’s how Albany had 27.9 inches of snow in December to only 2.5 in NYC.

 

Well I am S of NYC and I got 6 in December and so did PSV who is E of NYC and both of those #s were AN.  That retrograding Scan ridge helped allow the heights to get pushed on.

Look at the mean 500 for those 5 weeks , there`s a trough in the east in the means. 

NYC only averages 4.8 inches in Dec, early climo goes against big snows unless there`s real blocking.

You didn`t have a SE ridge as Nov ended - 3.8 and through Dec 22 KNYC was - 2.7 

The ridge really appeared at the back end of Dec as the MJO entered the COD and on into p6.

 

Here are the 1st 20 days of December

 

[SnoSki14]

Next weekend could be record breaking. Today's Euro indicates 60s possible, insane 850mb anomalies.

LA might be colder than us.