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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Just now, JustinRP37 said:

 

Thanks a bunch. Pretty nervous to check the page at work now since I work on a campus. Luckily nobody was around when that popped up on the screen.

It happens from time to time, especially in dead periods.  We'll try to drop in here more today than usual.  I'm sure most of you did this, but be sure to use the report feature as well.  It's the holidays, so a lot staff (and members) aren't plugged in as much to the board.   

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I was with my co workers when I saw it lol

Bet that was a tad awkward. Then again they know you love the weather!

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i couldn't keep up with deleting so i got randy to ban

Well today I learned there truly is a porn genre for every category including the weather desk. 

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1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Bet that was a tad awkward. Then again they know you love the weather!

Well today I learned there truly is a porn genre for every category including the weather desk. 

Yep. I had to do a double take. I thought it was Amy Freeze for a second. Oh well, back to the weather.

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41 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It happens from time to time, especially in dead periods.  We'll try to drop in here more today than usual.  I'm sure most of you did this, but be sure to use the report feature as well.  It's the holidays, so a lot staff (and members) aren't plugged in as much to the board.   

Yup thanks. I saw the first one and removed it but I guess there were more. 

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Models backing off on the weekend system for the Tri- State.. now you see it ..now you don't? Or  just another poor model run(s). One thing is for sure. The models are OUT OF TUNE..Like an old guitar that's been in the attic for 5 years. Not sure what the problem is..but if I had to guess, I would look towards the Sun..and its affect on ALL the indices- including convection and circulation..or the MJO boogieman.. The once driving forces of the planet..has become a  disruptive convoluted adjunct to forecasting. Don't take anything for granted.. GFS, EURO and alike until the system in the wheelhouse. That would late tom night/ early sat  for this 'whateverwegot' coming toward the VA CAPES

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Agreed, I would take that 6z euro map and cut it in half maybe more with accumulations if we are taking the model at face value here. While it’s cold enough to snow on it, how much of that truly will stick with surface temps in the 35-37 range? That just smells like white rain and Piss ooor ratios.  Plus, that euro run was a major outlier in the eps. Same thing happened to nyc back in early dec just couldn’t overcome poor BL despite decent precip. If things tick colder then I would start to buy into a better chance for accumulations in the city. North and west complete different story. 

Wow, you haven't been on in years.  How are you?

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The fast PAC jet extending across NOAM strikes again. It’s just too much for the models to correctly handle all the pieces of energy. 

BCC6A262-1EA0-4D13-98FA-F29C5FB9FC98.gif.22ae2488d821e74f08fbac901a596577.gif

Like I’ve been saying I’m not really interested in any threats while the Pacific jet, MJO, NAO etc are this horrendous. Maybe a minor event can sneak in there but the 6-8” snow maps from the Euro are almost definitely wrong. In the meantime it’ll continue to be a NNE and upper Midwest winter. Very Nina-like. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Like I’ve been saying I’m not really interested in any threats while the Pacific jet, MJO, NAO etc are this horrendous. Maybe a minor event can sneak in there but the 6-8” snow maps from the Euro are almost definitely wrong. In the meantime it’ll continue to be a NNE and upper Midwest winter. Very Nina-like. 

While it has been a very wet year here, check out the extremes to our west.

 

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32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Like I’ve been saying I’m not really interested in any threats while the Pacific jet, MJO, NAO etc are this horrendous. Maybe a minor event can sneak in there but the 6-8” snow maps from the Euro are almost definitely wrong. In the meantime it’ll continue to be a NNE and upper Midwest winter. Very Nina-like. 

reminds me a bit of 01-02 and 11-12-not that we're warm and dry, but those years I looked at the maps and saw what we are seeing today-way too much to fix at least in the short to medium term...

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The GEFS and GEPS  look like multiple alarm fires till the last week of the month.        Yet most of the discussion is over snow.       Show me two or three consecutive days with sub-freezing High T's,  and some snow might occur on day three or four.  

The next 7 days is still averaging 41degs., even with some colder days, but still continuously AN.     Last below normal day was Dec. 21.      We are going for 17/18 AN in a row.     Winter record is probably Dec 2015 and the start of Jan. 2016 at 34 straight AN days.

2020010212_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

NO CHANGE IN THE PATIENT'S CONDITION DOCTOR:     Jan. 2002 still a Top Ten Analogue, on three different dates:

814analog.off.gifAccidental cold is all we are going to get.    Expecting a system to generate its own cold air by expansion and evaporation is not a good bet.      Try Jan. 08.  

The paper the January 2020 calendar is printed on  should be tossed with last year.s calendar.

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5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The GEFS and GEPS  look like multiple alarm fires till the last week of the month.        Yet most of the discussion is over snow.       Show me two or three consecutive days with sub-freezing High T's,  and some snow might occur on day three or four.     

The paper the January 2020 calendar is printed on  should be tossed with last year.s calendar.

this could be one of those crazy +5/+6 monthly temp departure

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