NYCweatherNOW Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Yep but the models have really sucked this season. Even the euro hasnt been good. I know it’s early still it’s only Thursday but let’s wait and see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: NWS now hinting at a change to snow for everyone, however likely to be light accumulations on the coast Any snow is good considering the pattern. After this we watch 1 more snow threat before a warmup happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Any snow is good considering the pattern. After this we watch 1 more snow threat before a warmup happens. There was always a chance of a storm in the Jan 5-10 timeframe so I wouldn't throw out this possibility outright. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 My initial thinking on the system is that a window of opportunity continues to exist. This hasn't been in doubt. The base case is that the potential for a light accumulation in the NYC/EWR area exists with a higher probability of a moderate or possibly even significant accumulation in parts of New England, including Boston. The pattern has some similarities to that when a storm affected the region on January 16-17, 1965, but with some differences (a far less impressive and weakening PNA ridge is forecast) and the 500 mb trough placement differs, too. These differences could result in a somewhat "too late, too little" scenario for NYC/EWR. Cold air would arrive, but by then the heaviest precipitation would be off to the east. Parts of Long Island, particularly Suffolk County, could see higher accumulations as the storm begins to rapidly develop on its approach to the New England coastal waters or when it is over those waters. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 55 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: These warm weenies are stuck on dumb the euro looks beautiful for everybody The majority of us are snow weenies on here. Not many warm weenies on here, just realists. If I went by your forecasts this winter, I would already have been well over a foot of snow. Instead, I'm barely at 3 inches, so who is more accurate? Many are just looking at the trends and models and most of the models this winter have proved to be too cold and accumulations overdone, as @bluewave pointed out, you have to look at all layers, not just the pretty snow accumulation maps which are terrible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Euro and UKMET look great for a few inches for all. Would be great to get something before the flip to warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: These Miller B’s tend to favor sne and Long Island. I would not be shocked to see little to nothing around the metro with 2-3 on the island. Agreed, I would take that 6z euro map and cut it in half maybe more with accumulations if we are taking the model at face value here. While it’s cold enough to snow on it, how much of that truly will stick with surface temps in the 35-37 range? That just smells like white rain and Piss ooor ratios. Plus, that euro run was a major outlier in the eps. Same thing happened to nyc back in early dec just couldn’t overcome poor BL despite decent precip. If things tick colder then I would start to buy into a better chance for accumulations in the city. North and west complete different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Definitely. And then if the whole thing from 4/5 to COD back to 4/5 happens again in February then we're cooking in February, probably 70's with low 80's near and in the UHI. Forget about March, even though it's been the snowiest month in 4 of the last 5 seasons, if this scenario keeps repeating March is done and never delivers anyway, except of course in 4 of those last 5 years. April is now a summer month, except of course two years ago when 6 inches fell in the city. The least amount of snow in a single season is 2.8 inches in NYC (1972-73) and right now they're at 2.5 inches. There's a good chance right now they may break that record for least amount of snow in a season. IMO, that record is almost certainly safe. The least snow during the January-April period is the 2.8" that was recorded during winter 1972-73. NYC would need just 0.2" during that period to break the record and no season has come close to such a minimal amount during January-April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Agreed, I would take that 6z euro map and cut it in half maybe more with accumulations if we are taking the model at face value here. While it’s cold enough to snow on it, how much of that truly will stick with surface temps in the 35-37 range? That just smells like white rain and Piss ooor ratios. Same thing happened to nyc back in early dec just couldn’t overcome poor BL despite decent precip. If things tick colder then I would start to buy into a better chance for accumulations in the city. North and west complete different story. Yep. I sat at 34 the entire time with poor snow growth. This is taking a similar track with a similar airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: IMO, that record is almost certainly safe. The least snow during the January-April period is the 2.8" that was recorded during winter 1972-73. NYC would need just 0.2" during that period to break the record and no season has come close to such a minimal amount during January-April. even in crappy winters like 97-98 we get a freak snowstorm that ruins the record-I think that year may have been close to 0 before the 3/22/98 storm dropped 4-6 inches to ruin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 NAM is ugly-has very little precip and zero snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: NAM is ugly-has very little precip and zero snow It develops the system way too late. The 500 track though isn’t bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Woke up to see euro has 5” for me. Not trusting it after the dry backend on dec 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 These are about 2 to 3 degrees colder than in the early December storm. Something to watch for if LP does in fact develop like the Euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 @bluewave pivotalweather now has euro sounding data and maps for many more pressure levels 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: And then if the whole thing from 4/5 to COD back to 4/5 happens again in February then we're cooking in February, probably 70's with low 80's near and in the UHI. Forget about March, even though it's been the snowiest month in 4 of the last 5 seasons, if this scenario keeps repeating March is done and never delivers anyway, except of course in 4 of those last 5 years. April is now a summer month, except of course two years ago when 6 inches fell in the city. Edward Lorenz is fluttering in his grave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The mid-week event is the system to monitor closely - the 540 line is east and south of us already before precip arrives - just have to get the track to go far enough south and east of us too - and get some dynamics working 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: It develops the system way too late. The 500 track though isn’t bad The 12z UKMET looks similar to the NAM. Very fast flow with a kicker north of Minnesota. So the storm gets going too far offshore this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z UKMET looks similar to the NAM. Very fast flow with a kicker north of Minnesota. So the storm gets going too far offshore this run. The only model showing a snow event in the metro area is the Euro. All the new 12Z model runs NAM, GFS, CMC, UKMET, ICON are strictly all rain events, once again. The GEFS just went way north into far upstate NY with any accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The only model showing a snow event in the metro area is the Euro. All the new 12Z model runs NAM, GFS, CMC, UKMET, ICON are strictly all rain events, once again. The GEFS just went way north into far upstate NY with any accumulating snow Icon looked good. Thermals suck for the model. Still time for the models to sway either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 18 hours ago, bluewave said: This goes to show how extreme the heatwave driving those SST’s north of Australia has been. I am uncertain whether I ever recall seeing such an expansive (or any) area of 32C coverage in that part of the world. These are 90 degree F water temperatures to the north of Australia. For such an anomaly in the deep tropics, it yields a significant impact on the energy budget as you know, and concordantly, it isn't surprising to see the modeled high amplitude in phases 4/5 of the MJO. This is akin to throwing gasoline on the proverbial fire. Ambient SST's of 32C/90F are very impressive. This will further serve to enhance the MJO in its unfavorable [from E US perspective] octants. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, Isotherm said: I am uncertain whether I ever recall seeing such an expansive (or any) area of 32C coverage in that part of the world. These are 90 degree F water temperatures to the north of Australia. For such an anomaly in the deep tropics, it yields a significant impact on the energy budget as you know, and concordantly, it isn't surprising to see the modeled high amplitude in phases 4/5 of the MJO. This is akin to throwing gasoline on the proverbial fire. Ambient SST's of 32C/90F are very impressive. This will further serve to enhance the MJO in its unfavorable [from E US perspective] octants. it's amazing how warm water north of a continent thousands of miles away can wreck our winter....oh well, going to enjoy the warmth, if it's not going to snow, give me 60 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Icon looked good. Thermals suck for the model. Still time for the models to sway either way. we're 2.5 days out-today's model trends are certainly a big disappointment. If we miss this week and early next week, it's possible we go virtually snowless for Jan unless the very end of January delivers. The 80's are back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: we're 2.5 days out-today's model trends are certainly a big disappointment. If we miss this week and early next week, it's possible we go virtually snowless for Jan unless the very end of January delivers. The 80's are back! considering how unreliable the models have been recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: we're 2.5 days out-today's model trends are certainly a big disappointment. If we miss this week and early next week, it's possible we go virtually snowless for Jan unless the very end of January delivers. The 80's are back! its also possible to end up with near normal snowfall for the month or above avg. snowfall...……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: considering how unreliable the models have been recently True. The other thing I don't like is the strong PV over the pole. Want to see that weaken or get broken up. I don't see alot to get excited about honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: we're 2.5 days out-today's model trends are certainly a big disappointment. If we miss this week and early next week, it's possible we go virtually snowless for Jan unless the very end of January delivers. The 80's are back! 1 system in February can bring us to normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: 1 system in February can bring us to normal. That's all it takes really. That's always on the table no matter the winter or pattern. Ok maybe not 01-02 or 11-12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Euro and eps are garbage models Wtf happened to them ? Euro trended towards the cmc and the weaker models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Ummm ban hammer time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now