January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

Didn't see a rainbow over here :-(

 

[purduewx80]

22 minutes ago, Pellice said:

I am wondering why some low level ground fog has developed following the cessation of the rain.  I checked the temperature, and there hasn't been any surge of much warmer air, nor did the sun come out (as happens in summer sometimes).  I would have thought that the fog would form only if warmer temperatures were moving over colder ground.  The ground is still frozen a little further down, but the precip that fell today was all liquid.  The temperature has barely varied a degree all day. 

Just curious about the fog.

Dewpoints have increased to 45-50 degrees in and behind the rain. The ground is certainly colder than that (and now wet) due to our recent cold spell. With the center of the low moving through, winds are quite light, so that explains the shallow fog (cold ground cools the near-sfc air temp to the dewpoint). If winds weren't increasing later, it would probably deepen/worsen overnight.

[Pellice]

5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Dewpoints have increased to 45-50 degrees in and behind the rain. The ground is certainly colder than that (and now wet) due to our recent cold spell. With the center of the low moving through, winds are quite light, so that explains the shallow fog (cold ground cools the near-sfc air temp to the dewpoint). If winds weren't increasing later, it would probably deepen/worsen overnight.

Thanks so much, I was really curious.

[donsutherland1]

Four photos from today’s rainstorm during which White Plains received 0.61” in an hour and 1.20” through 5 pm:

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

December 2000 crushed out area of middlesex county. 

Thought it was Jan 1st.

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely. I remember being in awe of the snow depth after the December storm. It had been since 95-96 since I had witness snow like that.

Bent the handle on my snowblower.

[donsutherland1]

Rain from today's storm was moving into New England this evening. Through 6 pm, rainfall amounts included: Allentown: 1.40"; Atlantic City: 0.81"; Bridgeport: 0.85"; Harrisburg: 1.48"; Islip: 0.80"; New York City: 0.85"; Newark: 0.88"; Philadelphia: 1.60"; Scranton: 1.23"; and, White Plains: 1.20".

Following the storm, readings will remain above normal for the season. Temperatures will generally run above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC through the rest of the month. Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward. Arctic air is unlikely and the cold could be transient.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was +4.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.403.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through February 2. Wave 2 activity will likely increase near the end of January leading to at least some warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of February. 

On January 24, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.120 (RMM). The January 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.813.

The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record.

The combination of ENSO in combination with an AO+/EPO+ base state suggests that February will wind up warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

[CIK62]

The first 10 days of February are already back up,  to 38.5 or +5.5, this time.       It has 3 50-Degree Days, including when we were expecting colder T's----2/9-10.

Can't we all just be friends and call this waiting game off?

 

>>>>>>>Member Question to Allsnow:   Did you post the 50mb Height Anomaly by accident, really meaning the 500mb. Anomaly?         If 50mb heights are BN, isn't the air at 2M going to be AN?     Second post down.

[weatherpruf]

31 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The first 10 days of February are already back up,  to 38.5 or +5.5, this time.       It has 3 50-Degree Days, including when we were expecting colder T's----2/9-10.

Can't we all just be friends and call this waiting game off?

I already gave up. Writings been on the wall for awhile. And TBH, I'm really not missing the snow that much. It'll be back again, at some point. Don't think I'll be in the area if it's a multi-year thing ( and that has happened ) cause I'll be retired and living where I can afford it. Might be an area that snows, might not be.

[Allsnow]

I’m confident now of are coldest arctic blast of the season to start February. The strat looking real good on the gefs. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The first 10 days of February are already back up,  to 38.5 or +5.5, this time.       It has 3 50-Degree Days, including when we were expecting colder T's----2/9-10.

Can't we all just be friends and call this waiting game off?

 

>>>>>>>Member Question to Allsnow:   Did you post the 50mb Height Anomaly by accident, really meaning the 500mb. Anomaly?         If 50mb heights are BN, isn't the air at 2M going to be AN?     Second post down.

Only if you can promise me a warm/dry March & April. 

[EastonSN+]

56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m confident now of are coldest arctic blast of the season to start February. The strat looking real good on the gefs. 

Thanks. What are your thoughts on the GEFS showing the AK vortex and Hawaii ridge in the extended. Short term before we get another good pattern? Would hate to default back to that look after a cold plunge.

[doncat]

0.98" today...1.86" for month.

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. What are your thoughts on the GEFS showing the AK vortex and Hawaii ridge in the extended. Short term before we get another good pattern? Would hate to default back to that look after a cold plunge.

I see a -epo with a -pna and southeast ridge in the long long range. Does it makes sense mjo wise? Yes. But with the strat effects I think we will be okay. It would be a gradient pattern with swfe. The pv being distributed will lead to more of a -epo then what is being forecasted currently. February will feature lots of opportunities for snow. Obviously, easy to say when we have had so little. 
 

For next weekend threat, I like the interior. With the high moving off shore it doesn’t help a already meh airmass. I continue to like the 5th-8th time frame for our biggest threat. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

Euro with a Bermuda hit lol what happened to that model 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Euro with a Bermuda hit lol what happened to that model 

Eps looks much better 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of January are averaging 38.5degs.,or 6degs. AN.

Month to date is  +7.1[39.4].      January should end at +6.9[39.3]........8th Place.

The first 10 days of February are averaging 33.5, [0Z, GFS] or just about Normal.       All three main models have sacrificed all of their snow for really ordinary cold so far.

39*  here at 6am.        40* by 9am.

 

 

[Rtd208]

Larry Cosgrove believes chance for a strong Miller A type storm is real for next weekend but is still unsure (as most of us are) on precipitation types but he is leaning towards a lesser probability of frozen near the coast/big cites and going with a "chance" for now. 

[Rtd208]

In addition to my post above. Larry Cosgrove seem to think the pattern/models is pointing to another milder month here in February and also doesn't think any kid blocking will be present at least thru most of March.  On a positive note, he still believes we will turn colder and have a backloaded winter (his opinion), we'll see.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.85" of rain for the day yesterday.

Current temp 33

[NYCweatherNOW]

GEFS looks pretty nice

[bluewave]

28 out of the last 34 days had above normal temperatures.

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2019-12-23	13.8
2019-12-24	6.5
2019-12-25	4.7
2019-12-26	6.5
2019-12-27	15.7
2019-12-28	12.9
2019-12-29	7.6
2019-12-30	5.3
2019-12-31	6.9
2020-01-01	4.1
2020-01-02	7.7
2020-01-03	13.4
2020-01-04	13.0
2020-01-05	5.6
2020-01-06	5.7
2020-01-07	7.8
2020-01-08	2.4
2020-01-09	-4.0
2020-01-10	11.6
2020-01-11	27.6
2020-01-12	23.2
2020-01-13	9.2
2020-01-14	10.2
2020-01-15	13.2
2020-01-16	8.8
2020-01-17	-5.2
2020-01-18	-3.8
2020-01-19	2.7
2020-01-20	-6.8
2020-01-21	-5.8
2020-01-22	-0.9
2020-01-23	7.6
2020-01-24	11.5
2020-01-25	12.0

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I see a -epo with a -pna and southeast ridge in the long long range. Does it makes sense mjo wise? Yes. But with the strat effects I think we will be okay. It would be a gradient pattern with swfe. The pv being distributed will lead to more of a -epo then what is being forecasted currently. February will feature lots of opportunities for snow. Obviously, easy to say when we have had so little. 
 

For next weekend threat, I like the interior. With the high moving off shore it doesn’t help a already meh airmass. I continue to like the 5th-8th time frame for our biggest threat. 

Thanks. The lastest GEM and EURO actually miss the area entirely with the storm. Had enough rain already though.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

In addition to my post above. Larry Cosgrove seem to think the pattern/models is pointing to another milder month here in February and also doesn't think any kid blocking will be present at least thru most of March.  On a positive note, he still believes we will turn colder and have a backloaded winter (his opinion), we'll see.

Just read Larry’s newsletter from yesterday evening, he seems unenthusiastic about next weekend’s system as far as snow on the east coast and he wrote off February as mild for the eastern seaboard with little if any high latitude blocking. He seems to think the end of February through mid-March gets cold, then he’s thinking a very rapid warmup takes hold right after mid-March with a La Niña possibly developing 

[bluewave]

The heavy rain on Saturday was part of another repeating weather pattern since 2010. The heaviest January precipitation event occurred right around the same date late in January. This makes 8 out of the last 11 years for the area.

Heaviest January precipitation events since 2010

1-25-20.....Wantagh....1.28

1-24-19......NYC...1.33....EWR.....1-19/20-19...1.52

1-23/24-17......NYC...2.34...T

1-23-16......NYC...2.31....27.3

1-27-15......ISP....1.44......17.4

1-31-13......NYC...0.90

1-26/27-11....NYC....2.06...19.0

1-25-10.....NYC...1.25

[Allsnow]

Eventually we will time one of these wet systems with cold air. 

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eventually we will time one of these wet systems with cold air. 

Dont bet on it. 

One of the posters on here keeps talking about a 30 inch average...I think he said we needed 17 inches by 12/31 to get there.

I said the same thing...dont bet on it. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eventually we will time one of these wet systems with cold air. 

I wouldn't throw in the towel on next weekend. I just posted the tellies and the NAO and AO goes briefly negative with a brief spike with the pna. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Dont bet on it. 

One of the posters on here keeps talking about a 30 inch average...I think he said we needed 17 inches by 12/31 to get there.

I said the same thing...dont bet on it. 

Persistent forecasting isn’t a good way to forecast.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Dont bet on it. 

One of the posters on here keeps talking about a 30 inch average...I think he said we needed 17 inches by 12/31 to get there.

I said the same thing...dont bet on it. 

It's now 12.9 inches needed by December 31 to achieve a 30 inch average in NYC for the next calculations for 1991-2020 which will come out next January.

I would hope they could do it by the end of March, if they have to depend on next November and December I'd bet against it happening.