Doorman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 GEFS digital snow prog.............. even in the land of make believe ,,,this is crap on a stick!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Yeesh was that an ugly Euro run. Better hope that rolls back. The 850s look like April for the entire country. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: In addition to December 2015, I think March 2012 should definitely be a contender for the most absurd blowtorch of a month on a grand scale, even though the most absurd departures were in the Midwest. True: Chicago had a period where 8 out of 9 days were above 80, that March. It was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I am getting a snow tornado here, but my T is still 43* at 2:38pm. Lasted 90 secs., T is now 39* at 2:50pm. T went back up quickly to 42* and took until 6:30pm to get back to 39* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeesh was that an ugly Euro run. Better hope that rolls back. The 850s look like April for the entire country. lol The 850s ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, PB-99 said: lol The 850s ? Everyone will praise you when the pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Jan 20 - 21 -22 are all BN and spend most of the 3 day period in the 20`s to low 30`s. So yes that`s a change. The warmest the actual 850`s get in the Northeast on the EPS post Jan 20 at hour 204 in plus 3. ( That`s not April ) . The anomalies show up like it`s a torch, because like I said you can`t use anomalies in late Jan, because they are cold so any AN " looks warm " but the actual surface is plus 5 for 3 days and that`s not cold. Unfortunately it is day 9 - 11 as the ridge hangs down off H/B. ( so that may blow the day 10 system ) . By day 12 the ridge retracts over H/B and the S branch is sending impulses out. That`s what the EPS shows today - I don`t think that sucks, but if you do , have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 41 minutes ago, PB-99 said: 850 anomalies hooked up out of HB for 3 days. While your surface temps on the 20/21/22 are in the 20`s. We do flip on the 20th. I guess that transient H/B ridge will give you a week of plus 5 , but using 850 anomalies in late Jan man ? Esch The response to the AAM spike looks real. But that`s plus 5 for 3 days. Then once that rolls back , SW after SW should develop. That ridging is your friend, it what will develop into the block Hudson Bay. When was the last time we saw a 5 day mean like that ? looks just like 1978 minus the very negative AO. i don't think you actually know what you're looking at on any of these maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, forkyfork said: looks just like 1978 minus the very negative AO. i don't think you actually know what you're looking at on any of these maps What about the raging positive EPO and Neg PNA , if you know what you`re looking at. It`s the Ridge sticking out over HB is the anomaly that you`re all concerned about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: looks just like 1978 minus the very negative AO. i don't think you actually know what you're looking at on any of these maps Don't worry the pattern change is coming. Have faith in PB. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Don't worry the pattern change is coming. Have faith in PB. Where are the April 850`s ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, PB-99 said: The 850s ? 5 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Jan 20 - 21 -22 are all BN and spend most of the 3 day period in the 20`s to low 30`s. So yes that`s a change. The warmest the actual 850`s get in the Northeast on the EPS post Jan 20 at hour 204 in plus 3. ( That`s not April ) . The anomalies show up like it`s a torch, because like I said you can`t use anomalies in late Jan, because they are cold so any AN " looks warm " but the actual surface is plus 5 for 3 days and that`s not cold. Unfortunately it is day 9 - 11 as the ridge hangs down off H/B. ( so that may blow the day 10 system ) . By day 12 the ridge retracts over H/B and the S branch is sending impulses out. That`s what the EPS shows today - I don`t think that sucks, but if you do , have at it. it sucks for snow around here and that's what most will care about. A day 10 rainstorm amidst a few colder days (and let's be honest this cold is nothing to write home about) is nothing to get excited about. Sorry. Last January's cold, although fleeting (nothing to block it in) was much more impressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower. where is here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, PB-99 said: What about the raging positive EPO and Neg PNA , if you know what you`re looking at. It`s the Ridge sticking out over HB is the anomaly that you`re all concerned about do you even know what a negative AO means? sigh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: Where are the April 850`s ? I meant 500mb, geez just take the compliment. Relax it's just the weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: do you even know what a negative AO means? sigh So you want to focus on pressure differences between the Arctic and the mid latitudes but ignore the center of the ridge ? You think the AO is the only reason you got a blizzard on the EC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I meant 500mb, geez just take the compliment. Relax it's just the weather. Sorry dude, I thought you meant hamburgers. Clearly my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 42 minutes ago, PB-99 said: 850 anomalies hooked up out of HB for 3 days. While your surface temps on the 20/21/22 are in the 20`s. We do flip on the 20th. I guess that transient H/B ridge will give you a week of plus 5 , but using 850 anomalies in late Jan man ? Esch The response to the AAM spike looks real. But that`s plus 5 for 3 days. Then once that rolls back , SW after SW should develop. That ridging is your friend, it what will develop into the block Hudson Bay. When was the last time we saw a 5 day mean like that ? As our winter goes up in flames, PB tries to calm everyone down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Here is what the EPS is showing at the surface. You flipped out of a huge SE ridge into a trough in the S/E That`s a pattern change, it doesn`t mean one or both get don`t kicked OTS , but looking at that map you may be wishing for a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 i see an unfavorable pacific that will load the country with warm air which negates any good storm track 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i see an unfavorable pacific that will load the country with warm air which negates any good storm track I see the actual 0 line down into N/C after that ridge pulls back. It`s slightly BN and in late Jan it`s cold enough if you build a ridge over H/B. That terrible PAC sends out POS tilted waves. I am not going to change your mind , just showing what I see man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 By now, the above normal height anomalies shown on the closing days of the operational ECMWF have likely gained notice. Those height anomalies and the accompanying temperature rebound are well-supported. The 12z GEFS is in good agreement with the 12z operational ECMWF at 240 hours. However, by the end of the GEFS run, the area of above normal height anomalies retrogrades toward western Canada and a trough takes shape in the East. My thinking has been and, at least for now, remains as noted in my nearly daily discussions of the longer-term pattern evolution: During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February. Obviously, the situation bears watching. At least for me, I will need to see more evidence that the change is not a temporary period of moderation (highlighted above) during a transition toward a more sustained period of cold. The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight over the next week. If people want something gloomy to consider, January 1-15, 1998 had a mean temperature of 43.3° (2020 was 42.7°) in New York City. February 1998 went on to have a mean temperature of 40.6°. If people want something more appealing to consider, January 1-15, 1907 had a mean temperature of 43.5°. February 1907 had a mean temperature of 25.9° and monthly snowfall of 21.8". 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i see an unfavorable pacific that will load the country with warm air which negates any good storm track Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. we can live without a -NAO or even AO but a +EPO with those 2 will just be more of the same 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter: Ryan Maue @RyanMaue I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter: Ryan Maue @RyanMaue I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not? The ensembles were never particularly great day 11+. It may just be that they are getting posted more with the rise of social media. So they are now coming under greater scrutiny. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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