CIK62 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 29.5degs., or about 2.5degs. BN. Month to date is +10.2[42.7]. Should be about +6.1[38.1] by the 24th. Just a T to 2" of Snow for Saturday does it. 47* here at 6am. 46* at 7am. 48* at 8am. 50* and windy, drizzle at 9am. 48* windy, at Noon. 45* windy, by 2pm. 06Z GFS IS SUPER COLD!!!!! It wants to try to equal feat of Jan. 19-Feb. 05 1961, with NO 32 HIGHS starting Jan 20. Leaving out today and Feb. 01, it averages 20.1 for 15 days! A Reverse Full Nelson for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6z GFS says break out the yardsticks as it shows a day 10 snow bomb. In this winter to forget why do I keep torturing myself? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The warmth for the 1st half of February was more impressive to the north of NYC. It was the 2nd warmest on record at Albany and 6th warmest in NYC. That’s +14.6 in Albany and +10.2 in NYC. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 37.6 0 2 2020-01-15 37.2 0 3 1932-01-15 36.8 0 4 1937-01-15 35.1 0 5 1889-01-15 35.0 0 6 1930-01-15 34.8 0 7 1874-01-15 34.0 0 8 1907-01-15 33.6 0 9 1928-01-15 33.3 0 10 1936-01-15 33.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 46.4 0 2 1932-01-15 44.0 0 3 1950-01-15 43.6 0 4 1907-01-15 43.5 0 5 1998-01-15 43.3 0 6 2020-01-15 42.7 0 7 2005-01-15 42.2 0 8 1937-01-15 42.1 0 9 1930-01-15 41.7 0 10 1890-01-15 41.4 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 55 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: 6z GFS says break out the yardsticks as it shows a day 10 snow bomb. In this winter to forget why do I keep torturing myself? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: We can laugh at this for sure but if the MJO goes into more favorable stages along with Atlantic and Pacific tweaks... Who knows?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: We can laugh at this for sure but if the MJO goes into more favorable stages along with Atlantic and Pacific tweaks... Who knows?? Exactly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Does anyone have the latest MJO plots? We could use some good news in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Does anyone have the latest MJO plots? We could use some good news in here. use these at your own risk http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Lol at the gradient: 24” blob in Manhattan next to 0” in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Lol at the gradient: 24” blob in Manhattan next to 0” in Brooklyn That's just a map problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Lol at the gradient: 24” blob in Manhattan next to 0” in Brooklyn That's just the poor product TT HAS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: That's just the poor product TT HAS. Yea, it usually considers LI as part of the ocean right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 18 hours ago, bluewave said: It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better. Interesting post ,but what are your thoughts here in regards to using Februaries with AAM > 2.0 per as BAMWX just did as means to forecast warmth in the East for this coming Feb. Would you say unreliable because they are focusing on just one thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Judah Cohen says it's about over: Judah Cohen @judah47 · 13m To further elaborate completion of this troposphere-stratosphere coupling favors multiple weeks of positive #Arctic Oscillaton and overall mild weather and relatively light #snowfall. At this point hard for #winter to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 meanwhile JB says ice age: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: meanwhile JB says ice age: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h Been banging the drum since the holidays about the big reversal coming , the transition Jan 16-20 then rest of winter cold and stormy . Here are the last 30 days, and the JMA starting the 19th for the next 28 days, cfsv2 for the next 30. Analogs said it, models agreeing They both suck for different reasons. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: He is right - need the -AO and also a -NAO to have a better chance of more cold and snow - have to get lucky with timing of any cold injections and storms following as soon as possible. Agree partly-but a good -EPO would make the AO and NAO less important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 analogs are tough these days-different base state, warmer oceans etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 It is like the end of the world outside Very dark and windy with rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Judah Cohen says it's about over: Judah Cohen @judah47 · 13m To further elaborate completion of this troposphere-stratosphere coupling favors multiple weeks of positive #Arctic Oscillaton and overall mild weather and relatively light #snowfall. At this point hard for #winter to recover. He has been saying this all winter. He is a fraud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: He has been saying this all winter. He is a fraud. so far he's been right-pile of garbage up to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: He has been saying this all winter. He is a fraud. and you were saying to ignore the +AO charts for early January - looks like there is a chance of the AO going negative soon - or should we ignore that ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Do like that we'll be seeing more of a Nino response heading into Feb. That should make things at least somewhat interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, PB-99 said: So much has happened in the guidance in regards to the 20th, the MJO progression and the overall idea over the last week since I told you what was going to happen this that is stunningly stupid , even for you. The MJO is now unlikely to enter phase 8-1 like you said. The pattern is still changing but in a different way than forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: again, the pattern has not happened yet. You arrogantly yell at people here, but let the pattern verify before you do that. And I'l l remind you that you did this last year only for nothing to verify. Yes I am arrogantly telling posters who said the SE ridge would be there on the 20th that they were wrong. I am telling posters who said the MJO would fade after p6 that they are wrong. I am telling people that denied the pattern would change on Jan 20th posted in here 15 day away , they were wrong. Do you not see where the guidance has come too, do you think continuing to play the def dumb and blind card in here is a good look. Because making believe the guidance isn`t a complete flip after Jan 20th is just silly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 10:29 AM, PB-99 said: This is where I corrected the EURO to 6 days ago, in it`s last fake loop back. Where do I begin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: Yes I am arrogantly telling posters who said the SE ridge would be there on the 20th that they were wrong. I am telling posters who said the MJO would fade after p6 that they are wrong. I am telling people that denied the pattern would change on Jan 20th posted in here 15 day away , they were wrong. Do you not see where the guidance has come too, do you think continuing to play the def dumb and blind card in here is a good look. Because making believe the guidance isn`t a complete flip after Jan 20th is just silly. sometimes persistence forecasting is the way to go-maybe we do change, but many times, breaking a bad pattern is tough to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Wind picking up behind that small line of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Nothing's happened yet....you always spike the football but you're only at the 40 yard line lol To be fair, everyone busted last winter, @PB-99 included. Hell @earthlightand others called for this December and January to rock this year. In the end of the day it is weather, we cannot control it, we can just try to predict it. Arrogance has no place in it, as everyone on here has busted big time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, PB-99 said: This is sheer stupidity. This is phase 8. You don`t know how this works so you continue to make an idiot out of yourself in here If you were so confident you wouldn't be throwing a fit and every plot I've seen takes the MJO into phase 7 and then into the COD. There's a reason the AO/NAO aren't tanking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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