Yanksfan Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 4:51 PM, PB-99 said: So what`s left of the real warm up is Jan 10 - Jan 16 and then the GFS fades it away. That is a much quicker flip on the GFS than even I expected if that`s right. Expand Just goes to show how unreliable the long range forecasting has been. A week ago I pretty much gave up hope for any appreciable snow in January and punted the month away. Now it looks like before too long we're back in the game. Here's hoping when the pattern changes it locks in and we have winter storms to track. It's been boring in here lately with all the bickering and back biting going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 5:08 PM, nycwinter said: so the history of nyc snow is only since 2010 according to your post..we have had plenty of big snowstorms before jan 19.....we have had 13 snowstorms of a foot or more of snow before jan 19 and one day which i did not add happened on jan 19-20.. Expand Can you try reading what I actually said vs what personal biases you are bringing to the discussion. The bulk means the majority of the seasonal snowfall. The seasons where some locations had more snowfall before January 20th than after are few and far between. Some stations pulled this off in 95-96, 03-04, and 10-11. But they are the exception rather than the rule. So the recent decadal snowfall that I posted is representative of that distribution. Newark snowfall before January 20th.....after January 20th 1996.....46.9....31.5 2011.....37.9....30.3 2004.....30.9.....16.9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Quick pattern evolution thoughts... The base case as per historical data has been that the MJO would progress into Phases 7 and then 8. More of the guidance is showing a move into Phase 7 in the extended range. The GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS show the MJO moving into Phase 7 at an amplitude > 2.000. Passage of the MJO into and through Phase 7 at very high amplitudes during the second half of January have typically seen trough development in the East and a snowy February. These developments suggest that the potential for a pattern change away from the much above normal warmth (with short breaks) for the first half of January are increasing for the second half of the month. The closing week has the potential to see the onset of a sustained colder pattern. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 5:27 PM, donsutherland1 said: Quick pattern evolution thoughts... The base case as per historical data has been that the MJO would progress into Phases 7 and then 8. More of the guidance is showing a move into Phase 7 in the extended range. The GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS show the MJO moving into Phase 7 at an amplitude > 2.000. Passage of the MJO into and through Phase 7 and very high amplitudes during the second half of January have typically seen trough development in the East and a snowy February. These developments suggest that the potential for a pattern change away from the much above normal warmth (with short breaks) for the first half of January are increasing for the second half of the month. The closing week has the potential to see the onset of a sustained colder pattern. Expand I always knew I liked you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 5:24 PM, bluewave said: Can you try reading what I actually said vs what personal biases you are bringing to the discussion. The bulk means the majority of the seasonal snowfall. The seasons where some locations had more snowfall before January 20th than after are few and far between. Some stations pulled this off in 95-96, 03-04, and 10-11. But they are the exception rather than the rule. So the recent decadal snowfall that I posted is representative of that distribution. Newark snowfall before January 20th.....after January 20th 1996.....46.9....31.5 2011.....37.9....30.3 2004.....30.9.....16.9 Expand you made a post saying after january 19 what a odd date to set unless it fit in with your own agenda why not say january 1 or feb 1 why the 19th of january? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 5:53 PM, nycwinter said: you made a post saying after january 19 what a odd date to set unless it fit in with your own agenda why not say january 1 or feb 1 why the 19th of january? Expand What’s odd about seasonal snowfall climatology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 If this does not cut the pattern flip is a lot faster , 16th ish. If it does in fact cut then Jan 20 remains the target date. All in all the guidance is going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I believe the flip later in the month will be equally impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The L/R GFS as well as the L/R EPS are advertising a full latitude trough. A great full latitude trough was in March 93. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 This weekend looks fun (at least Saturday) Maybe I can take the top off for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 6:41 PM, CarLover014 said: This weekend looks fun (at least Saturday) Maybe I can take the top off for the day. Expand Could be an interesting squall line early Sunday with the record warmth. We’ll have to see how much of the LLJ any convection can mix down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 wonder if someone could put up a +35 this weekend? Saturday Nightime lows alone are close to record daytime highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 7:05 PM, Brian5671 said: wonder if someone could put up a +35 this weekend? Saturday Nightime lows alone are close to record daytime highs Expand Thought you were working ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 7:08 PM, PB-99 said: Thought you were working ? Expand Union break 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 7:10 PM, Brian5671 said: Union break Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 7:05 PM, Brian5671 said: wonder if someone could put up a +35 this weekend? Saturday Nightime lows alone are close to record daytime highs Expand I may be close to that. My normal split is 35/15 and I may be looking at a 65/55 this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 7:03 PM, bluewave said: Could be an interesting squall line early Sunday with the record warmth. We’ll have to see how much of the LLJ any convection can mix down. Expand The 12Z Sunday ISP sounding indicates weak CAPE and an 80KT LLJ! The surface inversion obviously won't let that all mix down, but it certainly could get interesting if any convective elements survive. Its PWAT forecast would also set a January record at OKX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks right on schedule. Day 9 Day 10 - 15 . Expect Barney to show up. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 4:50 PM, bluewave said: The bulk of our seasonal snowfall usually comes after January 19th. Just goes to show what an extreme outlier the 10-11 winter was. NYC snowfall ............By January 19th......After January 19th 18-19....7.1......13.4 17-18....17.9....23.0 16-17....10.1....20.1 15-16....0.4......32.4 14-15....3.7......46.6 13-14....15.0....42.4 12-13....5.1.....21.0 11-12....2.9.....4.5 10-11...31.9....30.0 09-10....13.2...38.2 Expand Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 8:01 PM, White Gorilla said: Yeah I remember in late January 2011 JB screaming "Winter in the Eastern US is over AS WE KNOW EET!" Expand turned out it was-I think we had 3-4 inches after the pattern broke down in early February....it never reloaded, just became warm and dry which was a god send with 50 inches of snow on the ground....imagine if a bunch of cutters had set up ala Jan 96? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 7:56 PM, PB-99 said: Looks right on schedule. Day 9 Day 10 - 15 . Expect Barney to show up. Expand Eps is just insane in the mid to long range . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 8:14 PM, Snow88 said: Eps is just insane in the mid to long range . Expand A single control run is where a 1 off member could head. Will stick with the ensembles this far out, but obvious there are some extremely cold members in the LR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Things definitely look much more promising than a few days ago. We're actually seeing more of a Nino atmospheric response which in typical Nino fashion results in a colder 2nd half. Last year we saw a massive SSW event that constructively interfered with the typical modoki Nino progression, which delayed the cold till March. MJO Phase 7 looking likely now and it should progress into 8 eventually. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 8:37 PM, SnoSki14 said: Things definitely look much more promising than a few days ago. We're actually seeing more of a Nino atmospheric response which in typical Nino fashion results in a colder 2nd half. Last year we saw a massive SSW event that constructively interfered with the typical modoki Nino progression, which delayed the cold till March. MJO Phase 7 looking likely now and it should progress into 8 eventually. Expand With some help from the EPO and PNA, business should pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 8:05 PM, Brian5671 said: turned out it was-I think we had 3-4 inches after the pattern broke down in early February....it never reloaded, just became warm and dry which was a god send with 50 inches of snow on the ground....imagine if a bunch of cutters had set up ala Jan 96? Expand Yeah the snow depth was insane. It started getting dangerous as I couldn't see around street corners while driving due to the height of the snow banks, leading to a few close call traffic accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 9:03 PM, CIK62 said: Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital. GFSx for the next 6 days is +17 at 49degs. [Back to Nov. 12, in other words] Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15. I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm. Felt like it was a 'March style' 37 too, while strolling around. Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that. Expand the cool down is starting to look legit, however there will be a crazy MTD +++ departure by 1/15. Some will obviously get erased depending on the extent of the pattern change,. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital. GFSx for the next 6 days is +17 at 49degs. [Back to Nov. 12, in other words] Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15. I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm. Felt like it was a 'March style' 37 too, while strolling around. Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that. Getting squished. Y or N? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Use the link. Something missing on the government website. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 9:20 PM, CIK62 said: Something better happen and fast around here---or NYC will be known as Global Warming Capital. GFSx for the next 6 days is +17 at 49degs. [Back to Nov. 12, in other words] Even using day 7, which it claims will be the start of the colder period, the average T is still 47degs., or +15. I got to 37* briefly today, at 3:30pm. Felt like it was a 'March style' 37 too, while strolling around. Tomorrow at this time it will be 15degs. warmer than that. Getting squished. Y or N? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Use the link. Something missing on the government website. Expand We all know the next 7-10 days are going to be above normal. Whats your point? It looks to get much colder after that though. BTW today I had a low of 17 with a high of 29. Felt like January to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 9:06 PM, Brian5671 said: the cool down is starting to look legit, however there will be a crazy MTD +++ departure by 1/15. Some will obviously get erased depending on the extent of the pattern change,. Expand The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 10:22 PM, SnoSki14 said: The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in. Expand remember 06-07-tropical to freezer in a week and it stayed that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now