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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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  On 1/7/2020 at 3:45 PM, Brian5671 said:

never said nothing changes til 2/15, I did opine that based on the stuck pattern we're in, I'm skeptical of change.  This does not mean I'm "rooting for warmth".  I love a good cold/snowy pattern just like anyone else but I'd like to see it in the nearer range before jumping on board.   Last year was a great example-models (and you for that matter) kept showing a great pattern that never materialized.   While winter may or may not be over, just because models are "seeing" something does not mean it's coming.   Lessons learned from last year....

Not sure why you get so angry at anyone who doesn't push a cold/snowy agenda....it's kind of odd really.    It's a discussion board, respect others opinions even if you don't agree with them.

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There is 0 anger when pointing out guidance. 

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You can see the struggle that the models are having as they transition from phase 5 to phase 6 longer range. Phase 6 composites move the NPAC ridge closer to the West Coast. So those wavelength changes may be hard for the models to properly resolve until under 10 days. We can see more of a -EPO emerge when we start getting closer to 6-7. But you need a strong enough -EPO response to really knock the SE ridge down from such an amped up phase 4-5. 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 3:56 PM, bluewave said:

You can see the struggle that the models are having as they transition from phase 5 to phase 6 longer range. Phase 6 composites move the NPAC ridge closer to the West Coast. So those wavelength changes may be hard for the models to properly resolve until under 10 days. We can see more of a -EPO emerge when we start getting closer to 6-7. But you need a strong enough -EPO response to really knock the SE ridge down from such an amped up phase 4-5. 

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it's possible that the SE ridge could be weakened enough to get a nice battlezone going b/w the ridge and the colder air to the north-put us on the right side of the gradient and we'll be in business...but need the ridge to be weakened a fair amount or we see what we're getting this weekend-60's and rain while NNE gets snow and ice.

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  On 1/7/2020 at 3:12 PM, PB-99 said:

 

I did not see an attempt to correct is false statement that the cold was delayed. you quickly posted a day 10 to day 8 fix.

 

So I felt it was my obligation to let the posters know that the EPS did not delay anything. 

 

Don`t be sensitive. 

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Dude layoff of bluewave, this is not USAWX. Hes one of the most solid posters on here and a true gentlemen. Move on. We get it, you are fired up, but lay off of him. 

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When you look at the SE ridge by day 10, look at it from a SD perspective. 

 

A light SE ridge in the means with the TPV flowing east of the Rockies means that low level cold air will undercut it.

 

So you create a baroclinic zone from time to time that could work. In late Jan , it`s not about anomalies , look at the actual 850`s. 

 

Look at the actual 850`s on the WARM/RIDGE GEFS, after day 9 they are well S of you. 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:01 PM, psv88 said:

Dude layoff of bluewave, this is not USAWX. Hes one of the most solid posters on here and a true gentlemen. Move on. We get it, you are fired up, but lay off of him. 

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I am not a member of usa and I will post my thoughts when they are in contrast with anyone`s and back it up.

The warm pity party is coming to an end after day 10.

That`s not a slight against anyone. 

 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:01 PM, psv88 said:

Dude layoff of bluewave, this is not USAWX. Hes one of the most solid posters on here and a true gentlemen. Move on. We get it, you are fired up, but lay off of him. 

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What ? He is just having a debate with him.

PB is just saying how he thinks a better pattern will evolve as we close out January. 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:04 PM, PB-99 said:

 

I am not a member of usa and I will post my thoughts when they are in contrast with anyone`s and back it up.

The warm pity party is coming to an end after day 10.

 

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Calling him sensitive was uncalled for. He is well respected for being calm and a gentlemen. That is all. 

Obviously disagree, but the personal attacks not so much. Now i am another story haha, attack away. 

And you have been on the warm pity party too lol

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:04 PM, PB-99 said:

 

I am not a member of usa and I will post my thoughts when they are in contrast with anyone`s and back it up.

The warm pity party is coming to an end after day 10.

That`s not a slight against anyone. 

 

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you're not?  I've seen you post there this year unless I'm mistaken

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:04 PM, PB-99 said:

 

I am not a member of usa and I will post my thoughts when they are in contrast with anyone`s and back it up.

The warm pity party is coming to an end after day 10.

 

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The warmup isnt even that long anymore. Once we change the pattern , the pattern should be fun ( check out the CFS)

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:06 PM, psv88 said:

Calling him sensitive was uncalled for. He is well respected for being calm and a gentlemen. That is all. 

Obviously disagree, but the personal attacks not so much. Now i am another story haha, attack away. 

And you have been on the warm pity party too lol

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The 1st part was not intentional , I was just trying to convey my points.

 

But yes I thought it was a horrible 30 days with a mere 5 day break.

 

I just think we are back in business between the 20 -25 as the start time 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 3:58 PM, Brian5671 said:

it's possible that the SE ridge could be weakened enough to get a nice battlezone going b/w the ridge and the colder air to the north-put us on the right side of the gradient and we'll be in business...but need the ridge to be weakened a fair amount or we see what we're getting this weekend-60's and rain while NNE gets snow and ice.

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Yeah, we need the a strong enough -EPO to at least bring the PNA back closer to neutral. A little -PNA is enough to pump the SE ridge out ahead of storms. I think the last time a strong -PNA really produced for us was back in 2014. 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:09 PM, Snow88 said:

Some people are too sensitive and dont want to hear different reasonings. Bluewave is a good poster but he seems a warmnista. Nothing wrong with that though.

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Dude, we all love you, but you dont like anything that doesnt call for 12"-24" lol. Not predicting a blizzard with every NAM run does not make you a warmista. 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:09 PM, Snow88 said:

Some people are too sensitive and dont want to hear different reasonings. Bluewave is a good poster but he seems a warmnista. Nothing wrong with that though.

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That is an outright false statement. The actual pattern is the only thing that matters. Being biased cold or warm just degrades the discussion. Just get out of the way and let the  pattern speak for itself.

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:16 PM, bluewave said:

That is an outright false statement. The actual pattern is the only thing that matters. Being biased cold or warm just degrades the discussion. Just get out of the way and let the actual pattern speak for itself.

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yeah I don't get that either.   Pattern's been warm for 2 years so that makes you a "warmnista"

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:12 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, we need the a strong enough -EPO to at least bring the PNA back closer to neutral. A little -PNA is enough to pump the SE ridge out ahead of storms. I think the last time a strong -PNA really produced for us was back in 2014. 

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It seems to me that the current pattern could have been predicted was back in the early 2010s.  We lost the -NAO blocking back then and needed historic levels of -EPO to continue the snowy pattern.  It was only a matter of time before that would go away too.  We needed miracle comebacks in winters like 2015-16 and winters that followed.

 

 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 4:09 PM, Snow88 said:

Some people are too sensitive and dont want to hear different reasonings. Bluewave is a good poster but he seems a warmnista. Nothing wrong with that though.

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Blue wave posts solid reasoning and analysis behind his thoughts and ends up correct more often than not. That doesn’t in any way make him a “warminista”. The pattern has been lousy this winter so far just like last winter. Those are facts, not any kind of bias. 

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  On 1/7/2020 at 3:10 PM, LibertyBell said:

Yup, that was prevalent during the late 80s and early 90s.  Note how cold our Jan avg temps were during the 80s with low snowfalls.  Thats a good side effect of our increasing precip totals since 2000- it's now difficult to get a below avg temp month combined with below avg snowfall, however it can still happen if the pattern dictates cold/dry followed by warm/wet followed by cold/dry, etc.  And such a pattern is very stable and difficult to dislodge.

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Storm track is very important. Just looking at the DJF temperature departures in NYC doesn’t tell the whole story for snow. March 2017 and January 2019 a great examples of this. But the one common denominator for NYC is that it needs a cold winter to reach 50 inches of snowfall.

NYC winter temperature departures since 2010 and seasonal snowfall.

18-19....+1.2....20.5

17-18....+1.1....40.9

16-17....+4.2....30.2

15-16....+5.9....32.5

14-15....-3.7.....50.3

13-14....-2.2.....57.4

12-13....+1.7....26.1

11-12....+5.4....7.4

10-11....-2.3....61.9

09-10....-1.3.....51.4

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  On 1/7/2020 at 5:17 PM, Allsnow said:

You can see the RMM plots are starting to correct towards the colder phases. They have a bias cod in the long range typically. 

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That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

80C26980-7BC3-49AE-BE1E-E9623B350616.gif.065238b61d3dc13d219f301b34a5cbe6.gif

 

 

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