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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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  On 1/6/2020 at 2:35 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

I don't understand these elementary posts

 

feb and march ? lol winter started like 16 days ago...

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Meteorological Winter began December 01st and ends February 28th.  The general consensus is that most of January seems lost to receiving much snow, barring a significant change in the persistent Pacific jet and its influence on the overall pattern.  That leaves February...

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  On 1/6/2020 at 2:54 PM, Dark Star said:

Meteorological Winter began December 01st and ends February 28th.  The general consensus is that most of January seems lost to receiving much snow, barring a significant change in the persistent Pacific jet and its influence on the overall pattern.  That leaves February...

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March has been a great month lately. However according to the CFS weeklies and monthlies it seems that we get a 2 to 2.5 week period of colder temps before the trough migrates west again. March now looks like January on the monthlies.

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  On 1/6/2020 at 3:45 PM, Brian5671 said:

certainly possible the MJO goes back into the COD and then re-emerges back into 4/5/6.   We saw it happen last winter.   Also need some help with the AO especially.    Alot to fix to get us into anything favorable.

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The wave is moving off , I think Timmy illustrated the Roundy plots perfectly. The wave heads towards 7 and that alone pushes the negative into the midsection.

There is convection in the L/R popping up in 8 and maybe 1.

If we come off after 7/8 we are prob in really good shape.

It could come back out anywhere. Most Jan`s with the plus 1.5 SD into p5 get back to 8 and the guidance is showing you that. The water at the D/L is very warm, plus 30 c so as the wave moves over convection should fire.

Root for 70 degrees next weekend, there have so many instances where big winter departures have yielded big reversals. 

 

There really isn`t anything pointing to the end of winter, we have been on hard break since Dec 21 and it prob lasts through Jan 20. Then the SE ridge is pushed south on the EPS. 

( losing 4 core weeks of winter hurts the winter but does not mean it ends it ) . 

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January 1993 had the highest Jan AO on record and NYC got a little snow on the 10th and 15th...the February and March AO was closer to neutral and both months had above average snowfall and below average temperatures..record snowfall and cold in March that year...

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  On 1/6/2020 at 4:13 PM, bluewave said:

The risk for late January is that the the forcing gets stuck near phase 6 like the EPS shows. While these post day 10 forecasts can be low skill, the record SST’s west of the date line may support such an outcome. But a later  MJO pulse in February could make it closer to phase 8. We’ll just have to wait and see.

F2274E48-2D91-4675-991B-616810579386.jpeg.8028103576eb57d5166379834686eba3.jpeg

6989F14F-BA66-4CFB-9235-321FEF87EEFB.png.57c1839df2c41ed217d590233f0b872a.png

A2240D96-3297-480B-803F-D0DC060BC4D8.png.591f556315e70de1942c51eb0babdb47.png

 

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I think you are approaching p7 by the last week of the month ( and although not cold ) , it relaxes the ridge in the SE and with the TPV in Canada you will turn less warm in the east.

But cold enough to snow as the real 0 line at 850 is S of you. 

 

Then you look for a Scan ridge to develop and that would further push on the ridge and allow that very cold air to dislodge south out of E Canada , by the time we head towards Feb.

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  On 1/6/2020 at 5:13 PM, HVSnowLover said:

I know it won't matter for us but the weekend storm is pretty interesting to track from a weather perspective, the temperature contrast is insane from north to south and the icing could be really bad for some in CNE/NNE

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Yeah it's going to be insane you get the UK set up and that's a bad ice storm for central New England North maybe even pressing down into our farthest northwest suburbs. If you get that second shortwave to weaken as has been the case inside of five days this winter so far that's definitely a possibility. also 60s New York City on South teens Albany North what a temperature contrast

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  On 1/6/2020 at 3:43 PM, Snow88 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6.png

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This is one of those cases where S and W of NYC can do better.  It’s not a true transfer but basically the vort gives way to a coastal low so there’s noticeably as you can tell a dead period from like TTN up to middle of CT before the coastal ramps up. A big reason the best looks are coming from the globals such as the UKMET/GFS is probably because they’re overdoing the QPF look in that corridor where as the mesos know there won’t be much there  

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The extended range of the 12z GEFS is almost the opposite of what one would want to see if one is looking for sustained cold. More than likely, one is dealing with what will be a slow transition toward sustained cold (probably taking place during the last week of January). I've labeled what one would like to see as opposed to what the GEFS shows.

0106202012z-GEFS384hours.jpg

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