NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 6 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Euro gives the area some snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The first 8 days of January are averaging 42degs. , or about 9degs. AN. 38* here at at 6am/7am. 37* at 7:30am. ***** Polar Bears getting ready to enter the water here. Crowd seems much smaller than other not so nice NYDs in the last 20 years. It is cloudy, breezy here, at 39*-12:45pm. Back in the early 2000's, i stripped down to my bathing and got just my feet wet, but it was 61* . They needed two bays to accommodate the huge crowd, both in/out of the water. My balldrop T was 42*, compared to last year's 49.5*(with a low sea fog setup). Yes, all the models have some snow-----but each on a different day! Get the scorecard ready. EURO is 3" on the 5th/6th; GEM 3" on the 8th.; the GFS waits till the 16th(you fill in an amount). Let's throw a party and let these gents get to know each other a little better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 Currently have snow flurries falling here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 We are starting 2020 with same Pacific dominated pattern as 2019. All models have a continuation of the wet cutter and hugger storm track. This gives new meaning to a persistence forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Last year was cold in between the cutters, this year (at least jan) doesn’t look like it will be That is a huge difference between the two years and it needs to be acknowledged. We have a potential record warm january headed our way. Extended warmth. No cold air in site. There is no comparing that to last year 34F at 7am 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: Last year was cold in between the cutters, this year (at least jan) doesn’t look like it will be That is a huge difference between the two years and it needs to be acknowledged. We have a potential record warm january headed our way. Extended warmth. No cold air in site. There is no comparing that to last year 34F at 7am Dec was wintry despite we didnt get alot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Last year was cold in between the cutters, this year (at least jan) doesn’t look like it will be That is a huge difference between the two years and it needs to be acknowledged. We have a potential record warm january headed our way. Extended warmth. No cold air in site. There is no comparing that to last year 34F at 7am I am just talking about the dominant storm track. The warmth coming up was addressed in my earlier MJO posts. The mild start to January next few days is a continuation of the late December pattern. But you can see how even a less amplified MJO 4-6 warmed the recent pattern. A much more amplified and warmer MJO 4-5 pattern will begin to be felt around the 10th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 New Year, New Decade, Old Story... Despite the change in calendar to a new year and new decade, time seems stuck. The region started the first morning of the 2020s with above normal temperatures, much as 2019 concluded. Morning low temperatures into southern New England were generally several degrees above freezing. The week ahead looks mild overall, even as some cooler air could arrive late in the period. There remains some possibility of a light snow event in parts of the Middle Atlantic region and maybe a light-to-moderate event in parts of New England afterward before a warmer pattern reasserts itself. Based on the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that the January 1-7 temperature in New York City will average 40.0° or above. 74% of the 23 prior cases went on to record a warmer than normal January and nearly half had a monthly mean temperature of 35.0° or above. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The storm track is troubling I thought when we saw the string of Oct storms, we were in a good place with the tracks A 40/70 storm has been hard to come by for over a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: The storm track is troubling I thought when we saw the string of Oct storms, we were in a good place with the tracks A 40/70 storm has been hard to come by for over a year Thanks to the pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 From as recently as December 25: Meteorologist Brad Pugh predicts that in the next three months, there is a 40-50% chance that temperatures across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be lower than average. “It is important to remember that we do expect variable temperature patterns during this three month time period with episodic cold events during the winter season,” said Pugh. Pugh adds there's a 40-50% chance that the precipitation will be more than normal in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic over the next 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The Euro and GFS agree that the MJO could reach a 2 or greater amplitude in both phases 4 and 5. The last rime this occurred during January was 2013 and 2007. It would be nice if the February pattern improves like it did in those winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro and GFS agree that the MJO could reach a +2 or greater amplitude in both phases 4 and 5. The last rime this occurred during January was 2013 and 2007. It would be nice if the February pattern improves like it did in those winters. Here's a temperature departure composite of every January since 1990 that featured a MJO phase 4 RMM amplitude of > 2.0 in January: The ensuing February composite -- the resultant was rather mixed -- by my count, 4 warmer than normal, 3 colder than normal, and 1 near normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Here's a temperature departure composite of every January since 1990 that featured a MJO phase 4 RMM amplitude of > 2.0 in January: The ensuing February composite -- the resultant was rather mixed -- by my count, 4 warmer than normal, 3 colder than normal, and 1 near normal. Great job of seeing the warm January from a distance. The period of 1/10-1/16, at least, looks to be way, way warmer than normal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro and GFS agree that the MJO could reach a +2 or greater amplitude in both phases 4 and 5. The last rime this occurred during January was 2013 and 2007. It would be nice if the February pattern improves like it did in those winters. I know it's the CFS weeklies but would this be like Feb 2013? I do like the persistent storms as this would at least possibly make it snow by accident ex. Jan 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Happy new year currently 38 in armonk cold and partly sunny! Feels like winter. Plenty of storm chances coming up, nothing set in stone yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I know it's the CFS weeklies but would this be like Feb 2013? I do like the persistent storms as this would at least possibly make it snow by accident ex. Jan 2012. If we are looking at 2012, we are already conceding the winter is shot IMHO.Feb 2013 was a tad better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro and GFS agree that the MJO could reach a +2 or greater amplitude in both phases 4 and 5. The last rime this occurred during January was 2013 and 2007. It would be nice if the February pattern improves like it did in those winters. The Euro has been trending the last 2 days towards killing that wave quickly. It’s probably better for us than it going high amplitude into 6 and maybe taking forever to get to 7 or just spending forever in 5 and 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: I am just talking about the dominant storm track. The warmth coming up was addressed in my earlier MJO posts. The mild start to January next few days is a continuation of the late December pattern. But you can see how even a less amplified MJO 4-6 warmed the recent pattern. A much more amplified and warmer MJO 4-5 pattern will begin to be felt around the 10th. We torched in a very low amplitude 4-6 pattern so imagine a much greater version of that. The EPS looks ridiculous in the LR, we're talking 50s & 60s to even 70s for weeks that could start leading to early plant growth especially with no below freezing weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: We torched in a very low amplitude 4-6 pattern so imagine a much greater version of that. The EPS looks ridiculous in the LR, we're talking 50s & 60s to even 70s for weeks that could start leading to early plant growth especially with no below freezing weather. There’s no way the pattern will stay that warm for that long. My guess is by 2/1 it flips. TBH we may be better off just getting that miserable pattern in mid to late January vs what’s happened last few years where a massive SE ridge has occurred in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We torched in a very low amplitude 4-6 pattern so imagine a much greater version of that. The EPS looks ridiculous in the LR, we're talking 50s & 60s to even 70s for weeks that could start leading to early plant growth especially with no below freezing weather. Should I get the barbecue and patio furniture out? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Should I get the barbecue and patio furniture out? Haha....have you seen the NAO the last 6-7 years in March and April? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 A little help guys n gals as I am probably not the only person with this question but as far as the MJO Index and reading it = What is the difference between the Green line, the Red line and those spaghetti yellows ??????????? -------> and Happy New Year All 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: New Year, New Decade, Old Story... Despite the change in calendar to a new year and new decade, time seems stuck. The region started the first morning of the 2020s with above normal temperatures, much as 2019 concluded. Morning low temperatures into southern New England were generally several degrees above freezing. The week ahead looks mild overall, even as some cooler air could arrive late in the period. There remains some possibility of a light snow event in parts of the Middle Atlantic region and maybe a light-to-moderate event in parts of New England afterward before a warmer pattern reasserts itself. Based on the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that the January 1-7 temperature in New York City will average 40.0° or above. 74% of the 23 prior cases went on to record a warmer than normal January and nearly half had a monthly mean temperature of 35.0° or above. The period from 1/10 on looks exceptionally mild. In fact the new GFS which is normally cold biased in the longer range has temps going into the 60’s in the metro next weekend, 1/11, 1/12..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The period from 1/10 on looks exceptionally mild. In fact the new GFS which is normally cold biased in the longer range has temps going into the 60’s in the metro next weekend, 1/11, 1/12..... Well, if you can't beat em, join em. If this is true, I will enjoy the warmer air and be happy to save on heating bills. Will continue to practice patience for significant snow later in the month or Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The period from 1/10 on looks exceptionally mild. In fact the new GFS which is normally cold biased in the longer range has temps going into the 60’s in the metro next weekend, 1/11, 1/12..... This will change a million times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 JB note the MJO, after going into the COD may emerge back into 4-5 again at some point. If that happens we're on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Well, if you can't beat em, join em. If this is true, I will enjoy the warmer air and be happy to save on heating bills. Will continue to practice patience for significant snow later in the month or Feb. I'm in that boat too-if it's going to be 45 and rain might as well root for 60 and sun....lower heating bills, more outdoor activities etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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