January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Interesting that CMC/Euro/GFS all show a similar storm around that time.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I would wait for the storm to start showing up in the ensemble means before getting excited. We still have a long way to go. You know how erratic the OP runs have been  with day 7-10 storm threats.

Would fit the MJO progression though. Perhaps this ends up being one of those lucky winter's where we score on most small windows I e. Like early December

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would fit the MJO progression though. Perhaps this ends up being one of those lucky winter's where we score on most small windows I e. Like early December

I would like to wait until the models get within 5 days of any potential event. Just too much volatility in these day 6-10 OP runs. Any snowfall before January 20th is a bonus. But it’s the back half of the winter that typically has our most snowfall. The only exception to the rule this decade was 10-11.

NYC snowfall 

............By January 19th......After January 19th

18-19....7.1......13.4

17-18....17.9....23.0

16-17....10.1....20.1

15-16....0.4......32.4

14-15....3.7......46.6

13-14....15.0....42.4

12-13....5.1.....21.0

11-12....2.9.....4.5

10-11...31.9....30.0

09-10....13.2...38.2

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Interesting that CMC/Euro/GFS all show a similar storm around that time.

The pattern looks good despite some people canceling the whole month of January  .

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would like to wait until the models get within 5 days of any potential event. Just too much volatility in these day 6-10 OP runs. Any snowfall before January 20th is a bonus. But it’s the back half of the winter that typically has our most snowfall. The only exception to the rule this decade was 10-11.

NYC snowfall 

............By January 19th......After January 19th

18-19....7.1......13.4

17-18....17.9....23.0

16-17....10.1....20.1

15-16....0.4......32.4

14-15....3.7......46.6

13-14....15.0....42.4

12-13....5.1.....21.0

11-12....2.9.....4.5

10-11...31.9....30.0

09-10....13.2...38.2

Wow thought NYC did better 16 17.

The MJO looks dire IMO so hopefully we do score in this window. How long would it take to recoop from a high MJO unfavorable spike like the below. If correct that is a massive wave in 4 5.

 

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would like to wait until the models get within 5 days of any potential event. Just too much volatility in these day 6-10 OP runs. Any snowfall before January 20th is a bonus. But it’s the back half of the winter that typically has our most snowfall. The only exception to the rule this decade was 10-11.

Absolutely especially in this volatile pattern. 

We could end up with something similar to early December but with climo on our side and a colder airmass our region may get involved. It could also easily cut without blocking so there's that.

Growing disagreement regarding MJO progression. Euro wants to fling it into phase 4/5 at a high amplitude while others keep it in the circle or at low amplitude.

Early thinking is Jan 1-5 AN, Jan 6-10 are BN, Jan 11-15 probably AN. Storm possible in between.

[forkyfork]

that storm could easily turn into a cutter with no upstream blocking

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Absolutely especially in this volatile pattern. 

We could end up with something similar to early December but with climo on our side and a colder airmass our region may get involved. It could also easily cut without blocking so there's that.

Growing disagreement regarding MJO progression. Euro wants to fling it into phase 4/5 at a high amplitude while others keep it in the circle or at low amplitude.

Early thinking is Jan 1-5 AN, Jan 6-10 are BN, Jan 11-15 probably AN. Storm possible in between.

The 12/29 MJO guidance has moved closer to the Euro. The Canadian and bias-corrected GEFS now takes the MJO into the Maritime Continent phases. The GEFS made a sizable move in that direction from yesterday.  The ECMWF has held steady.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12/29 MJO guidance has moved closer to the Euro. The Canadian and bias-corrected GEFS now takes the MJO into the Maritime Continent phases. The GEFS made a sizable move in that direction from yesterday.  The ECMWF has held steady.

This is true and a phase 4/5 entrance is probable. Some signs of a -EPO emerging too. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12/29 MJO guidance has moved closer to the Euro. The Canadian and bias-corrected GEFS now takes the MJO into the Maritime Continent phases. The GEFS made a sizable move in that direction from yesterday.  The ECMWF has held steady.

The GEFS still loops the MJO in the COD.

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is true and a phase 4/5 entrance is probable. Some signs of a -EPO emerging too. 

Eps has the epo going negative by Jan 6.

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The GEFS still loops the MJO in the COD.

 

Yes. On the GEFS it does. Still, the one-day change is disconcerting.

GEFS 12/28 forecast:

GEFS 12/29 forecast:

[EastonSN+]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. On the GEFS it does. Still, the one-day change is disconcerting.

GEFS 12/28 forecast:

GEFS 12/29 forecast:

I have noticed that the GEFS follows the EC almost all the time. I think our hope is a relatively quick progression back to 7 8

[frd]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I have noticed that the GEFS follows the EC almost all the time. I think our hope is a relatively quick progression back to 7 8

Will be very interesting to see if we get the afternoon Euro run to maintain the -EPO signal. As Don posted recently,  we really need to see either a -EPO to  develop in early to mid Jan.,  or a more favorable MJO progression.  However, modeling has been struggling with the MJO progression for weeks.  

Seems this winter so far is following the variability theme, just when you think you have it figured it only changes again.   

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I would wait for the storm to start showing up in the ensemble means before getting excited. We still have a long way to go. You know how erratic the OP runs have been  with day 7-10 storm threats.

There are some memebers showing a low

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The pattern looks good despite some people canceling the whole month of January  .

Nothing good about the pattern for next two weeks, check back after MLK weekend

[White Gorilla]

43 minutes ago, frd said:

Will be very interesting to see if we get the afternoon Euro run to maintain the -EPO signal. As Don posted recently,  we really need to see either a -EPO to  develop in early to mid Jan.,  or a more favorable MJO progression.  However, modeling has been struggling with the MJO progression for weeks.  

Seems this winter so far is following the variability theme, just when you think you have it figured it only changes again.   

What is the relationship between the MJO and the EPO?  Does one influence the other? 

[NYCweatherNOW]

And just like that pooof the storm is gone for January 7th timeframe!

[MJO812]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

And just like that pooof the storm is gone for January 7th timeframe!

200 hours out

Typical 

Need the ridge to hold

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

What is the relationship between the MJO and the EPO?  Does one influence the other? 

The tropical forcing from the MJO can impact the EPO. For example, during the January 1-31, 1981-2019 period, the following relationships existed:

MJO in Maritime Continent Phases (4-5) at amplitude of 1.000 or above:

EPO+ 61% dates (EPO of +1.000 or above: 28% dates); EPO- 39% dates (EPO of -1.000 or below: 17% dates)

MJO in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above:

EPO+ 28% dates (EPO of +1.000 or above: 11% dates); EPO- 72% dates (EPO of -1.000 or below: 35% dates)

Put another way, when the MJO was in the Maritime Continent Phases, the likelihood of a strongly positive EPO (+1.000 or above) was essentially the same as that for a positive EPO when the MJO was in Phase 8. At the same time, when the MJO was in Phase 8, the likelihood of a strongly negative EPO (-1.000 or below) was similar to the likelihood of a negative EPO during times when the MJO was in the Maritime Continent Phases.

[White Gorilla]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The tropical forcing from the MJO can impact the EPO. For example, during the January 1-31, 1981-2019 period, the following relationships existed:

MJO in Maritime Continent Phases (4-5) at amplitude of 1.000 or above:

EPO+ 61% dates (EPO of +1.000 or above: 28% dates); EPO- 39% dates (EPO of -1.000 or below: 17% dates)

MJO in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above:

EPO+ 28% dates (EPO of +1.000 or above: 11% dates); EPO- 72% dates (EPO of -1.000 or below: 35% dates)

Put another way, when the MJO was in the Maritime Continent Phases, the likelihood of a strongly positive EPO (+1.000 or above) was essentially the same as that for a positive EPO when the MJO was in Phase 8. At the same time, when the MJO was in Phase 8, the likelihood of a strongly negative EPO (-1.000 or below) was similar to the likelihood of a negative EPO during times when the MJO was in the Maritime Continent Phases.

Thank you so much!  Very informative. 

[NEG NAO]

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Looks to be a se ridge at the end of the 12z eps jeez can’t catch a break

[Rjay]

37 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Looks to be a se ridge at the end of the 12z eps jeez can’t catch a break

I'm not worried about what a model shows at days 10-15.

I'm not a fan of this pattern but we have opportunities to track a threat or two before we get to day 10.

[Rtd208]

Larry Cosgrove still holding fairly strong that there won't be much change to a colder and possibly snowier pattern in his longer term outlook until the end of January. Although he did say there could be a colder period early in the new month. All is not lost but his reason for keeping the east coast on the warmer side is the ridging over Cuba and Hispaniola. Also when the pattern does become more favorable for snow in late January he once again mentions the snow chances will increase between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains but did not mention the east coast. So take it for what it is.

[nycwinter]

enough with long term forecasts their could be a blizzard in 10 days nobody knows...

[CIK62]

First five days of January are still looking to average 43, or +10.         This would mean the rest of the month already needs to be 50/28 or  -1.8, in order to finish at Normal.       We will probably go 17/18 days between BN days.    12/21---01/08.

If the first week of January turns out to be as warm as predicted, yet the month ends like this:     we are going to have a cold three weeks.

 

[Brian5671]

18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Given the extreme AO flip and lag time of the MJO after it passes phase 8-1, I do think some kind of storm is possible.

The AO flip mirrors the early Dec storm that slammed SNE and northern parts of the area. 

I think we can get a storm or two, but it's going to be difficult to lock in any long term cold/snowy pattern based on some of the indices right now....

[uncle W]

there is a downward trend in the ao/nao forecasts with a few members getting very negative for the nao...we just went through a negative period with no snow or arctic temperatures...these are the el nino winters with less than 6" on January 15th and what fell after the 15th...some big years in there...some of the worst also...this el nino is weak...the other bad ones were stronger or strongest...the chances for this winter getting more or much more snow after January 15th are pretty good but how much more is the question...

season...Jan 15th...After...…..total.....biggest storm...
1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"...…….6.8"
1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"...…….1.8"
1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"...….17.7"
1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"...….17.6"
1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"...…...8.1"
1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"...…….6.2"
1992-93........1.9"......22.6"......24.5"...….10.6"
1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"...….10.8"
1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"...…….5.0"
2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"...….13.8"

2006-07.........T.........12.4"......12.4"...…….5.5"

2014-15........3.7"......46.7"......50.4"...…….9.8"

2015-16...…….T...…….32.8"......32.8"...…..27.5"

…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

other enso years that started bad but had better second haves...

season...Jan 15th...After...total
1971-72........1.0"......21.9"......22.9"...…….5.7"
1999-00.........T.........16.3"......16.3"...…….5.5"
2012-13........5.1"......21.0"......26.1"...….11.4"

 

[Jacattack]

Hello everyone.. No need to say what Weather Venue I subscribe to, because it's not really important. I'm an analog guy, and this winter looks like some classics of yesteryear.  A late starter for the east, with 'big digs' inbetween some rather mundane weather.. Indices are skewed, as we enter an unknown phase of record low solar. Particularly with regards to the MJO-and where it may ..or may not.. be going as we enter into true winter.. One thing to look for is this. Once past Jan 5th or 6th some big changes will be taking shape in the upper levels and the persistent split flow will be coming to an end.. With that, the cutters will be tracking to the east and I'm looking for the first problem for the megalopolis shortly thereafter.. stay tuned