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New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01


dryslot
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Just now, weathafella said:

I remember one late season during the 1994-95 winter.  My memory is my power stayed on but the glazed trees were beautiful.  I think at one point BOS was in the teens and MWN in the 40s.

2/28/95. That was a good one. 

 

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was one of the first to flip then and should be again.

We'll have to wait and see what the mesoscale pattern looks like as we get closer. If the high is really trying to nose down the Maine coast, it will promote the formation of a mesolow out east...if we don't see the nosing action quite as aggressive, then we may not get the mesolow look and the winds stay more ENE which will keep the icing more confined to elevated interior and a little further north. 

But often as we get closer, we'll start seeing the mesolow look when you have an aggressive high...and this one looks pretty aggressive. The only drawback is the antecedent airmass is garbage...but the airmass trying to be advected in is definitely not...its legit.

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We often get a barrier jet that forms in the lowest 1000-2000 feet just east of the Monadnocks and ORH hills...it helps really drive the surface cold southwestward. That's what we'll have to watch in this one even if you get models insisting on 33F rain....I've seen it enough times where people are shocked to wake up to 27F glaze. This happened on the event last January. I remember telling everyone ignore the model 2m temps...even on the mesos. They had no idea how to handle the advection from the Maine coast...the models were showing 34F and we woke up to 26F after going to bed with temps near freezing. 

 

Yup... this is exactly. right this is that, incarnate I think -

I mean you can see how the Euro has the 850 mb 'bending' back suddenly toward White Plains and N. NJ around 84 hours in there. I don't think that's saturation/wet-bulbing doing that ..tho some perhaps. Anyway, as that is happening you can see the high pressure is slipping a bit SE of the GFS' beady -eyed obsessive warm intrusion scenario... and the Euro just fits climo and frankly, experience. 

We'll see.. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/28/95. That was a good one. 

 

We'll have to wait and see what the mesoscale pattern looks like as we get closer. If the high is really trying to nose down the Maine coast, it will promote the formation of a mesolow out east...if we don't see the nosing action quite as aggressive, then we may not get the mesolow look and the winds stay more ENE which will keep the icing more confined to elevated interior and a little further north. 

But often as we get closer, we'll start seeing the mesolow look when you have an aggressive high...and this one looks pretty aggressive. The only drawback is the antecedent airmass is garbage...but the airmass trying to be advected in is definitely not...its legit.

This is what I was just explaining to pickles...yes, antecedent airmass is a limiting factor, but we are advecting in a colder airmass and with more ease the father north and east one is.

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58 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If you are without power for more than two days, just book a nice hotel or an air b n b. Much cheaper.  
I don’t get the generator thing.   

I'd be most concerned from a plumbing standpoint.  We have a gas (heating) stove so at least our family room would remain warm.  Our main heating is gas/steam heat and we have a tankless hot water system.  I imagine the latter two require electricity to run but I'm not sure.

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We often get a barrier jet that forms in the lowest 1000-2000 feet just east of the Monadnocks and ORH hills...it helps really drive the surface cold southwestward. That's what we'll have to watch in this one even if you get models insisting on 33F rain....I've seen it enough times where people are shocked to wake up to 27F glaze. This happened on the event last January. I remember telling everyone ignore the model 2m temps...even on the mesos. They had no idea how to handle the advection from the Maine coast...the models were showing 34F and we woke up to 26F after going to bed with temps near freezing. 

 

Even in GC we managed to get into the cold.  Not as much as eastern areas, but I was impressed by how we held below freezing.

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42 minutes ago, Modfan said:

When is the last time SNE had an area wide Ice Storm?

 The last one I remember that was down in The Valley was way back in 1973 or 74...I was Just a little tike and we were living in Granby CT. We were out for several days and had that go stay with my grandparents. I can't remember anything anywhere near that scope in this area since

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it's funny ... this is completely the wrong thread to mention this, but there is a tenor in this social media that's acting as though we should be suffering some form of winter abandonment - which, ...WRONG.

We are above normal Dec climo - if people need to guide their sense of happiness based on constant diet of some metaphoric dystopian cryo-horror drug like a junky that can't get to the better high, than you're just f'n nuts.

You're in a great goddamn winter until further f'n notice.  Deal with it. hahaha wow

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

it's funny ... this is completely the wrong thread to mention this, but there is a tenor in this social media that's acting as though we should be suffering some form of winter abandonment - which, ...WRONG.

We are above normal Dec climo - if people need to guide their sense of happiness based on constant diet of heroine dystopian cryo-horror stories than you're just f'n nuts. Otherwise, you're in a great goddamn winter until furth f'n notice.  Deal with it. hahaha wow

Not all.

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