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New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01


dryslot
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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The difference this time though is going to be which model to trust with lower levels as we get closer. Euro can trend warmer but still be some icing issues over interior.

GFS was hot garbage last event in the low levels...it only had the further north midlevels correct. 

So id be careful basing a forecast off the GFS temps below 900mb. There are still some synoptics that we have to reconcile in this event so nobody should be married to a solution yet. But this is pretty classic for hedging warmer aloft and colder in the low levels. 

I'm really going to get worried if we see the Schwarz shuffle north on the 12z suite...may scramble for a generator this wknd. Still hopeful for a savage sleeting right now.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm really going to get worried if we see the Schwarz shuffle north on the 12z suite...may scramble for a generator this wknd. Still hopeful for a savage sleeting right now.

If you get one for heating you need to do it right. You don’t want to have it running when power comes back on after being off. If it’s for just regular appliances, that’s not that big of a deal. 

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This looks like a candidate for a pulse of cold about 1/3 or 1/2 of the way thru the event's total time table .. give or take.

Without that, it'd be a cold rain with some pings that ends as wet snow, modulated for N-S thru region(s).  

However, what the American models are hinting, the foreign models appear more discerned, and that's that a pulse of colder air arrives and changes that illustration.  If/when that happens, ice. And of course, precise timing, and precise magnitude of any such arrival dictates the amounts therein.

Nothing new per climate... we've seen this countless times in the past. At some point ... a wave of cold comes in from the NNE/NE from interior Maine and there's a bit of a 925 mb level modest jet of air that probably isn't modeled with the best coherency as such but happens nonetheless... And it drills this into southern NH and eventually ...this cuts in underneath the Easterlies on-going that are on the N side of the warm front.

Which by the way...ain't goin' no where ;)  The mid and upper level synoptic forcing that is the cause for elevated surface pressure pattern around the NE arc of the total cyclonic aspect, is fully integrated. That boundary approaches central Jersey and it's game over. Whatever flow of air from the south that attempts to incur upon that surface ridging is going do one of two things:  go over it; flow around it. It doesn't matter exactly what the temperature is in the air mass on the polarward side of the front in this case, though cold air does add viscosity and some resistance alone.  More specifically, the Euro ( and somewhat in the GGEM) we see the high pressure contouring sliding a bit more SE in eastern Ontario than the American cluster - that's an important distinction out there around 84 hours ... Personally I feel in this situation and considering climo, the American models are suspect in this case. But not every set up like this does that "tuck" routine ...and, if that were not enough, we've seen tucking succeed, and drill the temps back from 38F to 32.1 at times too. There's an opportunity for now-casting here ...  

This is an extremely stretched Miller B ...it's just so vastly so, that some would argue it isn't at all - also arguing because they have a narrow conception of these event types based upon idealized paradigms, and forget that those rules are meaningless ( really ..) in the atmosphere.. but I digress..  However, anytime we find antecedent +PP exerting BL resistance down the eastern side of the App's cordillera, which we do..., and you have a deep layer troposphere trough being squeezed more E of the Lakes as opposed to rotating up into Canada, ... which we do, we'll find a secondary.  We do get the secondary to develop out of this mess, but it is paltry and weak because the - as said - the mechanics as stretched ... We could even call it a 'hybrid swfe/ Miller B too..

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Apologies in advance for a IMBY question regarding this potential... With PF dealing with the holiday rush and not posting too much, I’m trying to get a grip on what’s gonna happen with this in far NE VT. BTV still wavering in regards to warm/cold solutions. Do we think sleet is a possibility up there? Or does it stay all snow due to the close proximity of the HP? Or am I sucking exhaust from a strong HP advecting in? Thanks for whoever could gimme some insight. I have hella family members asking me what we are getting ourselves into....

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This looks like a candidate for a pulse of cold about 1/3 or 1/2 of the way thru the event's total time table .. give or take.

Without that, it'd be a cold rain with some pings that ends as wet snow, modulated for N-S thru region(s).  

However, what the American models are hinting, the foreign models appear more discerned, and that's that a pulse of colder air arrives and changes that illustration.  If/when that happens, ice. And of course, precise timing, and precise magnitude of any such arrival dictates the amounts therein.

Nothing new per climate... we've seen this countless times in the past. At some point ... a wave of cold comes in from the NNE/NE from interior Maine and there's a bit of a 925 mb level modest jet of air that probably isn't modeled precisely as such but happens nonetheless... And it drills this into southern NH and eventually ...this cuts in underneath the Easterlies on-going that are on the N side of the warm front.

Which by the way...ain't goin' no where ;)  The mid and upper level synoptic forcing that is the cause for elevated surface pressure pattern around the NE arc of the total cyclonic aspect, is fully integrated. That boundary approaches central Jersey and it's game over. Whatever flow of air that attempts to incur upon that surface ridging is going to flow around it. It doesn't matter exactly what the temperature is in the air mass on the polarward side of the front.   

This is an extremely stretched Miller B ...it's just so vastly so, that some would argue it isn't at all - also arguing because they have a narrow conception of these event types based upon idealized paradigms, and forget that those rules are meaningless ( really ..) in the atmosphere.. but I digress..  However, anytime we find antecedent +PP exerting BL resistance down the eastern side of the App's cordillera, which we do..., and you have a deep layer troposphere trough being squeezed more E of the Lakes as opposed to rotating up into Canada, ... which we do, we'll find a secondary.  We do get the secondary to develop out of this mess, but it is paltry and weak because the - as said - the mechanics as stretched ... We could even call it a 'hybrid swfe/ Miller B too..

We often get a barrier jet that forms in the lowest 1000-2000 feet just east of the Monadnocks and ORH hills...it helps really drive the surface cold southwestward. That's what we'll have to watch in this one even if you get models insisting on 33F rain....I've seen it enough times where people are shocked to wake up to 27F glaze. This happened on the event last January. I remember telling everyone ignore the model 2m temps...even on the mesos. They had no idea how to handle the advection from the Maine coast...the models were showing 34F and we woke up to 26F after going to bed with temps near freezing. 

 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't buy a good deal of snow, or plain rain here near the NH border...going to me mainly sleet of freezing rain.

yeap, i agree, NMA, NH north should be the most frozen, I think I see everything doing here but more rain than anything, should get some frozen towards the end as cold air drains in but will see..Euro would keep me frozen longer, american models mostly rain till the end.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We often get a barrier jet that forms in the lowest 1000-2000 feet just east of the Monadnocks and ORH hills...it helps really drive the surface cold southwestward. That's what we'll have to watch in this one even if you get models insisting on 33F rain....I've seen it enough times where people are shocked to wake up to 27F glaze. This happened on the event last January. I remember telling everyone ignore the model 2m temps...even on the mesos. They had no idea how to handle the advection from the Maine coast...the models were showing 34F and we woke up to 26F after going to bed with temps near freezing. 

 

yes, I remember this vividly, watching Wunder map stations  looking for the 32 line as it slowly dropped down, 

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I remember one late season during the 1994-95 winter.  My memory is my power stayed on but the glazed trees were beautiful.  I think at one point BOS was in the teens and MWN in the 40s.

That's the way to run those...

Not to get into it but personally? I'm not a fan ... The specter of it has it's place, but the novelty pales compared to no power.  It's just not worth it...really.  Keep it spectral please -

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That's the way to run those...

Not to get into it but personally? I'm not a fan ... The specter of it has it's place, but the novelty pales compared to no power.  It's just not worth it...really. 

 

Kevin is the only one who wants to be ina cold dark house for days on end...

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