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New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01


dryslot
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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So we rain may be plain rain in Nashua after some sleet pellets until around 3-4 am?

I doubt it...you're pretty far north. Warm layer up there is thinner with a defined cold layer in the 875-975mb range through 09z. So prob pellets most of the time. Maybe some snow early on if you get a good burst of omega. 

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Just now, monadnocks said:

I'm good with the sleet-fest. It'll probably be warm enough to scrap off and move out of the way. The disconnect between the two maps mildly irks my "data should be well coordinated" self. 

 

what town are you in. 

I suppose if your near mass border there is a better shot for icing bc mid levels seem pretty borderline a tad west 

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1 hour ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

We'll see how this goes.  There is something to be said for having a 20kW generator and 1,500 gallons of propane in the tanks.  I'm right at 1,000 feet.

What do you have the requires that much power?  My folks have a 7.5kw model and can run everything in the house, just not the stove and dryer at the same time.  That's three times that so I'm guessing you have some pretty serious machinery that you need to run.

Looks 34° here...

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Just now, MetHerb said:

What do you have the requires that much power?  My folks have a 7.5kw model and can run everything in the house, just not the stove and dryer at the same time.  That's three times that so I'm guessing you have some pretty serious machinery that you need to run.

Looks 34° here...

Nothing crazy - would allow us to run AC in the summer if necessary and not have to worry about running other things such a well pump and other appliances.  

We freeze a great deal from the garden so we have a couple of freezers that I would hate to lose.  

The cost differential between a 12, 14 and 20 kW unit was pretty minimal (it was about $500-$600 difference for actual generator between the 12 and 20 kW units) in comparison to the rest of the install cost and then I can run anything without having to worry.  Also, going that large saved us some money because we did not have to move circuits out of the main panel into a sub panel.  

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you aren't icing in the first few hours overnight, it prob won't happen until tomorrow morning. Drain doesn't really get going until about 09z and the secondary push is prob like 4-6 hours after that into midday. 

Could start as a period of sleet for the pike region as the warm layer is initially pretty shallow even though the cold layer early on is kind of weak. Could go either way though...if it does start as sleet in metrowest, it would prob flip to rain before too long...and then we see what happens with the cold drain later on. 

Yup..just contemplating this even for here straddling rout 2 ... 35/29... close but less than totally inspiring.  I'm thinking this is a 33'er until we start injecting. But I'm also not looking at the soundings so I don't know how deep this marginal DP goes.  If it's 5K feet thick than we could wet bulb to 32.1 -heh

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3 hours ago, monadnocks said:

The BOX map has the .25-.5" ice accretion continuing east to about Townsend, MA. Yet, just over the border, GYX has the same range only going through maybe Rindge, NH. For those of us who live relatively near the NH/MA border, it's a conundrum. Do we have a relatively mild case of icing? Again, like so many posters, I'm not rooting for a major ice storm. The great photos of the sun through the iced, bent over branches didn't balance out the twelve days without power. 

 

3 hours ago, DomNH said:

We’re getting scalped. Wouldn’t expect damaging ice. 

Just plugging back in after an delayed Christmas at home, but boy that's some deep cold air through 850 mb on the higher res guidance. Screams sleet.

I actually think we're probably a little overblown on our snow forecast at the moment. Gets awfully warm at 700 mb, and you know there will be some sneaky warm layers in between.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Just plugging back in after an delayed Christmas at home, but boy that's some deep cold air through 850 mb on the higher res guidance. Screams sleet.

I actually think we're probably a little overblown on our snow forecast at the moment. Gets awfully warm at 700 mb, and you know there will be some sneaky warm layers in between.

Yep. Throw on the helmet tomorrow. IT's going to be a mess. 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Just plugging back in after an delayed Christmas at home, but boy that's some deep cold air through 850 mb on the higher res guidance. Screams sleet.

I actually think we're probably a little overblown on our snow forecast at the moment. Gets awfully warm at 700 mb, and you know there will be some sneaky warm layers in between.

This is a GW/ Hadley Cell bulge into a winter BD scenario. 
 

All fields exaggerated because of that and you end up with huge polarity. 
 

All these lows  are doing this now… I can direct you all the papers showing how the storm tracks all over the hemisphere suspiciously being pushed north because of the HC  expansion with global warming. It’s fn up the winters. Also the flow being so fast is definitely having an influential impact on cyclones frequency and amplitude

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This is a GW/ Hadley Cell bulge into a winter BD scenario. 
 
All fields exaggerated because of that and you end up with huge polarity. 
 
All these lows  are doing this now… I can direct you all the papers showing how the storm tracks all over the hemisphere suspiciously being pushed north because of the HC  expansion with global warming. It’s fn up the winters. Also the flow being so fast is definitely having an influential impact on cyclones frequency and amplitude
So...E trade winds at BOS by summer 2030?


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25 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

How does the rest of the evening play out? Does say Kevin north to ORH continue with Sleet ZR mix, snow and sleet north of ORH?

For the most part.  Like I mentioned earlier I think some of that dry air could integrate some FZRA/FZDZ to areas north of ORH as we head into tonight and overnight.

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