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New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01


dryslot
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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree with the bolded....short-term  mesos often play catchup with that as we close-

Still maybe under-modeled....again, this is low level cold.

We are all cooked for snow in SNE.

Fair enough.   But it doesn’t look to be a siggy Ice Storm for “A lot”  of the area currently.  

 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even he’s getting siggy ice in Southington 

Low level cold hangs on here(or advects in here) pretty well in these type of situations, but I’ll sell siggy ice here too.    .1, .15 at most here if everything breaks right. 
 

NWS has very little to No ice for most areas outside of NW CT 

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

I don't see  the Euro snow  amounts but for Dendriteland I think you need to tick up that 2-4" snow forecast then pellets for you by a few inches.  1.60" is  a lot of qpf

The maps are wrong based on H7 temps. It tries to show us snowing at times despite H7 being >0C. I almost wonder if the model is seeing the pixie dust snow grains in the cold layer and giving that predominance on ptype. Maybe we do better than 2-4" but heavy heavy toss.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The maps are wrong based on H7 temps. It tries to show us snowing at times despite H7 being >0C. I almost wonder if the model is seeing the pixie dust snow grains in the cold layer and giving that predominance on ptype. Maybe we do better than 2-4" but heavy heavy toss.

Clown maps cause more grief than they are worth when it comes to transition events. They really should just be religated to the trash heap except maybe on pure snow events...but even then we start getting those weenie kuchera maps that think 15F at the surface will always produce 20 to 1. 

 

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The maps are wrong based on H7 temps. It tries to show us snowing at times despite H7 being >0C. I almost wonder if the model is seeing the pixie dust snow grains in the cold layer and giving that predominance on ptype. Maybe we do better than 2-4" but heavy heavy toss.

Your area looks to fight that battle @H7 with the WAA, Does not look to be any factor here or @H85 for the duration on the Euro.

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

The wind speed component is a factor.  As Ryan as pointed out wind increases accretion rates. Complex formulas involved but Utilities especially need all parameters to prepare. 

Once the occurrence of freezing rain was determined by one of the above methods, estimates of ice accretion thickness on surface objects were calculated at each model grid point using the simple ice accretion model (Jones 1998). The uniform radial ice thickness on a cylinder, accumulated over the duration of a storm, is calculated by

Fig thumbnail _i10

where Req is the uniform radial ice thickness (mm), N is the number of hours of freezing precipitation, ρi is the density of ice (=0.9 g cm−3), ρ0 is the density of water (=1.0 g cm−3), P is the precipitation rate (mm h−1), V is the wind speed (m s−1), and W is the liquid water content (Wj = 0.067P0.846j

Yeah, we built the freezing rain accumulation model (2015) into our gfe at the office to get a look at that which I believe adds skill over this simple ice accretion model. 

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How about a precipitation hole for Worcester? 2008 was more than enough. Give me two feet of snow almost anytime, but ice? Nothing romantic about a freezing cold house and nowhere to stay. Really. Its like wishing for a direct hit by a tornado or hurricane.  Just doesn't make sense that anyone wants to be it the bulls eye for this sort of thing. Don't like this 4C with a dew of -4C. 

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