Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: A weenie +10C spec at 810mb sitting over -6C at 840mb. It almost looks like a velocity couplet. I know it’s ridic there is a larger sort of synergistic argument tied into the expanded HC ( dreaded GW) and the increasing winter time gradients perhaps favoring that sort extreme variance Scenarios. No takers? heh. Yeah we seen that before those crazy backward sloped sounding but this is probably among the most severe I’ve seen that regardless of what it really plugs into causally But yeah that’s exactly what I mean it seems like it is a faux artifice of the models doing mass balancing or something. That couplet’s no accident if ask me and underscores the effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: The warm layer is probably deep enough and warm enough here for all ZR in the high terrain in NE CT. And straight rain in Tolland ... yeah that’s interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: The warm layer is probably deep enough and warm enough here for all ZR in the high terrain in NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 I don’t know the thing I don’t like about those freezing rain products is that regional icing events tend to be more normalized mass accretion everywhere than all that cutesy mottling that’s down to town sqr sizing What’s with all that blotching like that ... it’s not gonna be like .63 of ice two pixels to the left of .23 like that that’s bullshit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don’t know the thing I don’t like about those freezing rain products is that regional icing events tend to be more normalized mass accretion everywhere than all that cutesy mottling that’s down to town sqr sizing What’s with all that blotching like that ... it’s not gonna be like .63 of ice two pixels to the left of .23 like that that’s bullshit It's obviously just pixel-averaged values. And in this case basically a pixel-averaging of topography. We all know the winter weather graphical products are very misleading yet people keep posting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 What else do we have to go on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 If the hi-res models are anywhere close to correct, the distribution of icing will not be very uniform. It will be localized, sub-model-grid scale, and very elevationally dependent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, eduggs said: It's obviously just pixel-averaged values. And in this case basically a pixel-averaging of topography. We all know the winter weather graphical products are very misleading yet people keep posting them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What else do we have to go on? Yea, I don't get the aversion to clown maps in a weather forum. If you don't know their limitations by now then its on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What else do we have to go on? Faith in Ullr? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What else do we have to go on? Wishes and dreams. 3K is pretty close, imagine when we get house by house in the future, posters here will complain when its off by .1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 It’s not correct guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s not correct guys Every single model run in the history of time is incorrect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't get the aversion to clown maps in a weather forum. If you don't know their limitations by now then its on you. I hit them. But I don’t think they’ve added any forecasting expertise. They identify trends but these are pretty obvious without the clowns. That said....post away.....my opinions are what they are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 HREF freezing rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Mesos all point towards a decent icing event here. Fun nowcast event incoming. Don't really want to lose power but should be an interesting wintery end to a fun December out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Mesos all point towards a decent icing event here. Fun nowcast event incoming. Don't really want to lose power but should be an interesting wintery end to a fun December out this way. Hopefully not as much as forecast, you get up in the 1 inch range and it's not just power you have to worry about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: HREF freezing rain I would be a little concerned if I was anywhere from Mitch to Yukon Cornelius to Dave and even towards Tippy for a pretty good icing event. That includes me of course but I think elevation will certainly help for bigger ice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Hopefully not as much as forecast, you get up in the 1 inch range and it's not just power you have to worry about You've seen my pics, I am surrounded by 70-100' white pines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: You've seen my pics, I am surrounded by 70-100' white pines. Other then birch trees, Those are the weakest link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: I hit them. But I don’t think they’ve added any forecasting expertise. They identify trends but these are pretty obvious without the clowns. That said....post away.....my opinions are what they are. One thing you well never see me do is post them on my blog or social media, but in a chat forum? Sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Looks like area just west of HFD AOA 500’ is in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Other then birch trees, Those are the weakest link. At least they don't have huge branches. Trust me, I am not thrilled with this storm, hoping for some really good dynamics wrt to lift and we stay mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like area just west of HFD AOA 500’ is in trouble I agree but depending on how this plays out, that area from Gardner to Chelmsford up to Nashua could get into some good icing. The icing zone is the wild card that can easily get shoved 50 miles north or south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: At least they don't have huge branches. Trust me, I am not thrilled with this storm, hoping for some really good dynamics wrt to lift and we stay mostly sleet. You can rake pine needles year after year on them and never get to the bottom, My blueberry pants love the acid they produce though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You can rake pine needles year after year on them and never get to the bottom, My blueberry pants love the acid they produce though. They actually form strong, interlocking root mats so if you have a bunch of white pines the bigger worry is split trunks breaking and falling as opposed to whole trees going over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Even lopping off a significant amount due to inefficient accretion would yield a sig event... everything looks good, hopefully those ice totals keep ramping up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 ice storm is coming for all north west i 84 in ct including the hartford area . sun through mon night . models under estimate the cold air many times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 If you're not in the hills, ignore and enjoy a surprise, or expect mostly rain. Either way you win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 22 minutes ago, blizzard24 said: ice storm is coming for all north west i 84 in ct including the hartford area . sun through mon night . models under estimate the cold air many times. @Damage In Tolland Shouldn't you be in bed? Morning run in like an hour... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now