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New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01


dryslot
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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it could stop in S ORH county. "Stop" is probably the wrong word...but rather it could moderate enough above freezing by the time it reaches kevin. 

If the euro was showing that 18z solution tomorrow night, I'd forecast ZR for him though. Models are probably going to be too warm at the sfc...the question though is whether we trend warmer for a couple runs before go time. If we got a solution a few degrees warmer by tomorrow night, then the ice maybe only makes it to ORH. 

Wouldn’t it have to be at least a couple of degrees colder due to latent heat release. That near 32 is very shallow too. Euro is almost as warm as GFS now. 

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5 minutes ago, EJM said:

My wife is planning to drive (with the kids in the mini van) from Stamford CT to Concord MA on Monday between 5pm and 9 PM. If they were to take 95 to 128, would that allow them to miss the ice threat or is that still a bad time to be on the road?

Major roads like those I hope are going to be well treated.  
 

I get to drive through hill country into Northampton.  Wheeeee!

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Wouldn’t it have to be at least a couple of degrees colder due to latent heat release. That near 32 is very shallow too. Euro is almost as warm as GFS now. 

No. Latent heat release is an issue in a lot of events because we don't have advection of fresh lower dews...that is definitely not an issue in this event. There is a steady feed of low dewpoint Arctic air from the northeast. 

That's why some areas could actually get several hours of 34-35F rain and actually fall below freezing during the event and change to ZR. This isn't an antecedent airmass trying to hold on...it's actually bullying it's way in from the northeast. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No. Latent heat release is an issue in a lot of events because we don't have advection of fresh lower dews...that is definitely not an issue in this event. There is a steady feed of low dewpoint Arctic air from the northeast. 

That's why some areas could actually get several hours of 34-35F rain and actually fall below freezing during the event and change to ZR. This isn't an antecedent airmass trying to hold on...it's actually bullying it's way in from the northeast. 

Ah. I see, DPs on the 18Z in Ct hover around 33/34 cept in the NW hills 

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30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z Euro increases the freezing rain threat.  I have no idea how accurate these are but here is the Weatherbell freezing rain product.  1" of ice would definately cause huge problems

Untitled.jpg

Correct me if I'm wrong......accumulation is not accretion. This is the total rainfall that would occur with surface temps below freezing.   It is not the amount one is going to find on trees and wires.

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Correct me if I'm wrong......accumulation is not accretion. This is the total rainfall that would occur with surface temps below freezing.   It is not the amount one is going to find on trees and wires.

You are correct. 

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ah. I see, DPs on the 18Z in Ct hover around 33/34 cept in the NW hills 

And the models may not have the lower dews advecting southwest far enough. They typically can't resolve the lowest 1000-2000 feet on such a sloped airmass. 

Still about 24 hours to see any late trends though. The whole thing could still bump north or south...weaker or stronger. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

And the models may not have the lower dews advecting southwest far enough. They typically can't resolve the lowest 1000-2000 feet on such a sloped airmass. 

Still about 24 hours to see any late trends though. The whole thing could still bump north or south...weaker or stronger. 

Yes sir, still early either way, until then we discuss model runs, then it’s now cast interpretation, much like the last storm 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Lol let’s just wish the outcome 36 hrs out, that always works, fuk science. Geezus

He's trying to make up for missing '08. Lol. 

This one won't be as bad though...not nearly the QPF. But there's potential for someone to get over a half inch of ice for sure. Maybe isolated spots getting over 3 quarters of an inch accretion. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And the models may not have the lower dews advecting southwest far enough. They typically can't resolve the lowest 1000-2000 feet on such a sloped airmass. 

Still about 24 hours to see any late trends though. The whole thing could still bump north or south...weaker or stronger. 

I give up .He wants so badly for our area to miss the ice. Maybe he’s right and it’s 34 ad rain . Time will tell. Seems snow idea is gone even up into NH

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's trying to make up for missing '08. Lol. 

This one won't be as bad though...not nearly the QPF. But there's potential for someone to get over a half inch of ice for sure. Maybe isolated spots getting over 3 quarters of an inch accretion. 

Going on a perhaps not-too-short-a- limb, I'm gong to predict Yukon Cornelius will wind up the ice-winner on the board.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I give up .He wants so badly for our area to miss the ice. Maybe he’s right and it’s 34 ad rain . Time will tell. Seems snow idea is gone even up into NH

Let's see 2 days ago you said I wanted frozen so bad but today I am wishing it away. So is it ACATT or AWATT, I cant keep up with you Sybil

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No. Latent heat release is an issue in a lot of events because we don't have advection of fresh lower dews...that is definitely not an issue in this event. There is a steady feed of low dewpoint Arctic air from the northeast. 

That's why some areas could actually get several hours of 34-35F rain and actually fall below freezing during the event and change to ZR. This isn't an antecedent airmass trying to hold on...it's actually bullying it's way in from the northeast. 

This is also why the hilltops look to get a lot more ice than the valleys and lowlands.  The cold drains in at low levels, but off the deck.  So 1500ft could drop to, say 27F, while down at 400ft is at a marginal 32F and not really accreting (meanwhile 5000ft could be 40F).  In a more typical CAD - ice scenario, the sheltered valleys hold on longer than the hilltops.  This upcoming modeled scenario is not the prototypical ice event.

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Veterans know that Kevin has called for at least 75 damaging ice storms over the years at his house. Actual number 0. Unless you count the half inch limbs that have come down.  Any discussion otherwise is always met with derogatory remarks to a lot of posters. He should really relocate to the Berks Poconos or High Orh county where they get ice storms of magnitude 

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Just now, eduggs said:

This is also why the hilltops look to get a lot more ice than the valleys and lowlands.  The cold drains in at low levels, but off the deck.  So 1500ft could drop to, say 27F, while down at 400ft is at a marginal 32F and not really accreting (meanwhile 5000ft could be 40F).  In a more typical CAD - ice scenario, the sheltered valleys hold on longer than the hilltops.  This upcoming modeled scenario is not the prototypical ice event.

Yeah active drain scenarios almost always favor the elevations which is why it seems the higher end threats seem to have an elevation component. Basically anytime we have a stubborn high in Quebec. 

The in-situ (esp on SE flow) is where the valleys seem hang on the longest. 

 

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