New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I guess you could say that about lots of parameters in lots of storms.

Is your Generator ready JIC

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 18z NAM offers up 0 or < 0 C at every sigma level from 800 mb down to the tarmacs for Logan during the first 12 to 18 hours of this thing.

That's a tick down by some, and it now is even colder than the shaved .5 C Euro at this point.   And if it were not [ probably? ] for an obscenely elevated warm layer, that would be probably 5" of snow in that QPF realization, prior to ZR intrusion. If not, than folks thinking sleet are in for surpriiiiise. I'm also noticing a fairly potent IB signaled in there, too, with 9.2 units of UVM during the front work - not bad!  Before quells into a more middling lift on-going saturation, but by then we are soaring at 800 to 4 or 5+ C so that's sleet and ZR most likely at least to that latitude over eastern zones.

In the interior, this sags by some..how much is now cast-able.  But I would suggest that is also offset by the fact that this is warmer WNW of ORH in this type of synoptic ordeal...with essentially what amounts to a powerful BD advection coming in around a third of the way through, a marginal cold rain/ice/IP situation profiles downward. It's likely IP in ALB while snowing at the east end of the Mohawk Trail for a stint during the band of instability burst. Overall, after brief snow, looks like mid or upper 30s southwest of HFD where cold rain and a few pings, to low 30s/30 down rt 2 with IP and mangled aggies, while it may be heavy IP/noodles at Logan. Then everyone is over to IP NE, as we convert this to a moderate infrastructure ice concern ( more?) as said NE hrust arrives and probably sends a wave of crashing DP /temp deep into CT/RI underneath ongoing WAA way above.  That's what this looks like to me, and even the higher res mesos will under due that fantastic static stability/BL forcing of having a newly fresh polar +PP wedging in like this.  It's just going happen this way I feel. If not... oh well - otherwise consider one's self warned.

I'd say if anything warning would be met near that interface of IP and accretion where fall rates and temperature combine for proficiency.  Where it is snow/IP around Manchester NH, may be high end advisory - until later periods when coastal evolution may enhance a temp CCB in that region up through coastal Maine.... It's tough sending headlines when you got storm acting seamless across different intervals.  Heh... pun intended, it's like "the cloud" storm. 

That real strong pulse that starts on Monday morning into Monday afternoon is pretty interesting. It's very strong...you have the analogy of a BDF...and I think I mentioned the same analogy a couple days ago. It is acting more like a spring time backdoor front rather than a winter CAD setup...except that we're dealing with a wintertime boundary layer with ocean being warmer than land in this case. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like an interesting system... I think we could get 3-5” of snow/sleet up this way.  Dense stuff and good upslope signal on Wednesday to follow it up.

Yea especially on the Euro with a 988 North of Caribou with deep embedded cold.

[Sugarloaf1989]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That real strong pulse that starts on Monday morning into Monday afternoon is pretty interesting. It's very strong...you have the analogy of a BDF...and I think I mentioned the same analogy a couple days ago. It is acting more like a spring time backdoor front rather than a winter CAD setup...except that we're dealing with a wintertime boundary layer with ocean being warmer than land in this case. 

 

Is this area safe from the threat of freezing rain? NWS has a low of 32 and 1.5" of rain.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Is this area safe from the threat of freezing rain? NWS has a low of 32 and 1.5" of rain.

I'd keep an eye on it. You aren't out of the woods by any stretch though the better chance is east of you or up in the Litchfield hills. 

[rclab]

59 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Me too. Just got out the shower and not happy with the mirror reflection....not happy at all!

True enough. The steamed mirror is my comfort and I get the hell out of there before it clears. As always......

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Is this area safe from the threat of freezing rain? NWS has a low of 32 and 1.5" of rain.

You're in Enfield. Don't rule out anything.

[tavwtby]

not liking my spot for this at all... I'd rather cold rain than another half inch of ice on an inch of snow is like concrete... spots in my driveway are still like an inch of ice, that was nuts

[CoastalWx]

Seems like euro is ticking warmer aloft at 12z and now 18z. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro continues to warm aloft...AWT. 

Sell snow in SNE. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that’s definitely a pelt fest in areas that were borderline snow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

More importantly how’s the surface in icestorm region and could it be over or underestimating cold thrust?

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro continues to warm aloft...AWT. 

Sell snow in SNE. 

Backside colder and snow in Berks Hunchie area, also warmer at the surface part 1

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Backside colder and snow in Berks Hunchie area, also warmer at the surface part 1

Backside sucks in SNE/ 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

More importantly how’s the surface in icestorm region and could it be over or underestimating cold thrust?

You are borderline 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You are borderline 

On the Euro . And as all you mets have been hammering .. models well under doing the cold Thrust .

We thrust and push 

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

 

We thrust and push 

Sounds like premature eglaciation

[wxeyeNH]

18Z Euro increases the freezing rain threat.  I have no idea how accurate these are but here is the Weatherbell freezing rain product.  1" of ice would definately cause huge problems

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Backside sucks in SNE/ 

Hr 57 to 60 is a snow profile in the Berks Hunchie area then it goes to shit. I can post maps if you need them

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

18Z Euro increases the freezing rain threat.  I have no idea how accurate these are but here is the Weatherbell freezing rain product.  1" of ice would definately cause huge problems

Looks accurate based on the Euro temp profile

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hr 57 to 60 is a snow profile in the Berks Hunchie area then it goes to shit. I can post maps if you need them

I look at 850 and it’s torched 

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z Euro increases the freezing rain threat.  I have no idea how accurate these are but here is the Weatherbell freezing rain product.  1" of ice would definately cause huge problems

General rule of thumb is to cut these totals by 1/2. 1:1 rule doesn't apply for QPF:ice totals in most cases.

[Damage In Tolland]

Put model estimations away on this one. It’s been reiterated 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Put model estimations away on this one. It’s been reiterated 

Well as many said, We don’t know how far SW the push will get. 

[CoastalWx]

Steve it looks barely cold enough aloft on the 18z euro where Dave is near hr 60. You’d want the storm more SE I think.

[dryslot]

H85 is a furnace, I get torched on some of part 2.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I look at 850 and it’s torched 

Hmmm, looks like a quick flip burst to me, then it goes to shit. I could see it

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well as many said, We don’t know how far SW the push will get. 

Yeah it could stop in S ORH county. "Stop" is probably the wrong word...but rather it could moderate enough above freezing by the time it reaches kevin. 

If the euro was showing that 18z solution tomorrow night, I'd forecast ZR for him though. Models are probably going to be too warm at the sfc...the question though is whether we trend warmer for a couple runs before go time. If we got a solution a few degrees warmer by tomorrow night, then the ice maybe only makes it to ORH. 

[PowderBeard]

32 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

not liking my spot for this at all... I'd rather cold rain than another half inch of ice on an inch of snow is like concrete... spots in my driveway are still like an inch of ice, that was nuts

I'd agree. Hope you have a wood stove or something. One plus is afterwards is "warm" and not -10 wind chills. 

[EJM]

My wife is planning to drive (with the kids in the mini van) from Stamford CT to Concord MA on Monday between 5pm and 9 PM. If they were to take 95 to 128, would that allow them to miss the ice threat or is that still a bad time to be on the road?