CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: East winds will save Boston from an ice storm it seems Better chance of IP or even some SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Not much overall has changed. Seems like biggest ice threat is W and S of places like ORH, but still questions to sort out. Looks like Essex county, esp near Ray has a shot of several inches of snow. It appears that the trend of the WAA thump is not as robust so that may keep areas from truly damaging ice? Going to have to wait and see on that. Secondary low looks to track near the canal. That may flip people like Dave back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not much overall has changed. Seems like biggest ice threat is W and S of places like ORH, but still questions to sort out. Looks like Essex county, esp near Ray has a shot of several inches of snow. It appears that the trend of the WAA thump is not as robust so that may keep areas from truly damaging ice? Going to have to wait and see on that. Secondary low looks to track near the canal. That may flip people like Dave back to snow. Interesting yesterday Will and you discounted any snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 06z euro looked decent here as there was still more precip to fall with the secondary when we ran out of panels @hr90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Interesting yesterday Will and you discounted any snow. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 NAM looks more consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Interesting yesterday Will and you discounted any snow. Well for a majority in SNE, yes. And I said has a shot. It's not a lock, but 2-3" could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well for a majority in SNE, yes. And I said has a shot. It's not a lock, but 2-3" could happen. While I'll certainly be following it, I'm with Dave in being a little tired of this event. I think this will be essentially one for CNE. Some inconsequential sleet and ice in MA and some decent snow--albeit tainted with ip--through NH and western ME through the mid-coast (with more taint on the latter if the secondary tracks more tightly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: 06z euro looked decent here as there was still more precip to fall with the secondary when we ran out of panels @hr90 Is this a 6 hour panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not much overall has changed. Seems like biggest ice threat is W and S of places like ORH, but still questions to sort out. Looks like Essex county, esp near Ray has a shot of several inches of snow. It appears that the trend of the WAA thump is not as robust so that may keep areas from truly damaging ice? Going to have to wait and see on that. Secondary low looks to track near the canal. That may flip people like Dave back to snow. You would think, but we lose any surface high at that point, and the coastal low isn’t sufficiently deep to generate low level CAD until it’s into Maine. It seems more likely to me that 800-900 warmth is being captured well on guidance for part II, but the surface CAD is significantly underdone. Most likely outcome is areas that are below freezing at the surface through part 1 remain so through part II. Surface temps stagnate while 800-900 warm slightly. Points south, around BDL, are mostly light freezing rain/drizzle, while points north, around PSM, are mostly sleet. Areas, in between (around ORH) are a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems more like a “we rot” situation, despite the coastal low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Is this a 6 hour panel? 3hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 Some may have some hope as there is an appearance by the pope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: You would think, but we lose any surface high at that point, and the coastal low isn’t sufficiently deep to generate low level CAD until it’s into Maine. It seems more likely to me that 800-900 warmth is being captured well on guidance for part II, but the surface CAD is significantly underdone. Most likely outcome is areas that are below freezing at the surface through part 1 remain so through part II. Surface temps stagnate while 800-900 warm slightly. Points south, around BDL, are mostly light freezing rain/drizzle, while points north, around PSM, are mostly sleet. Areas, in between (around ORH) are a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems more like a “we rot” situation, despite the coastal low development. The Pope has decreed it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The NAM really pushes the cold pretty far to the SW. More of a stout push vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 Somebody is going to see a lot of zr and some others ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: You would think, but we lose any surface high at that point, and the coastal low isn’t sufficiently deep to generate low level CAD until it’s into Maine. It seems more likely to me that 800-900 warmth is being captured well on guidance for part II, but the surface CAD is significantly underdone. Most likely outcome is areas that are below freezing at the surface through part 1 remain so through part II. Surface temps stagnate while 800-900 warm slightly. Points south, around BDL, are mostly light freezing rain/drizzle, while points north, around PSM, are mostly sleet. Areas, in between (around ORH) are a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems more like a “we rot” situation, despite the coastal low development. For nrn ORH county it should be cold enough near the surface and temps aloft cool so that HubbDave could see it flip back before ending. I wouldn't expect 6" but he could sneak an inch or two. Obviously this part is more questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Somebody is going to see a lot of zr and some others ip. QPF looks lower though so maybe not so bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Somebody is going to see a lot of zr and some others ip. Still think the major zr is southwest of ORH to NW RI, CT with inches of sleet northeast of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: QPF looks lower though so maybe not so bad? Anything over .5" will create problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: For nrn ORH county it should be cold enough near the surface and temps aloft cool so that HubbDave could see it flip back before ending. I wouldn't expect 6" but he could sneak an inch or two. Obviously this part is more questionable. You might be right, but I’ll say since living in coastal NH, the surface CAD is really robust, but at the same time 850 -900 warmth commonly makes its way up to where warm fronts go to die —“Lake Winne Region”. I think this is one of those setups where the surface front ends up over SE MA—*much* further southeast— than at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Still think the major zr is southwest of ORH to into NW RI, CT with inches of sleet northeast of there I wouldn't sleep on the berks down into western CT getting some decent ice as well as where you outlined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: I wouldn't sleep on the berks down into western CT getting some decent ice as well as where you outlined. Oh yeah those fine folks too. Large areas of significant ice . Eversource gonna have a wild New Year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: You might be right, but I’ll say since living in coastal NH, the surface CAD is really robust, but at the same time 850 -900 warmth commonly makes its way up to where warm fronts go to die —“Lake Winne Region”. I think this is one of those setups where the surface front ends up over SE MA—*much* further southeast— than at 850. Oh yeah it’s definitely going to torch especially 850-700 or so. No argument there. My Point is that I would keep my eye on that second part where he is. That’s all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For nrn ORH county it should be cold enough near the surface and temps aloft cool so that HubbDave could see it flip back before ending. I wouldn't expect 6" but he could sneak an inch or two. Obviously this part is more questionable. I honestly don’t give a hoot about any snow at this point. Just the ice is giving me fits. Dang it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, jbenedet said: You would think, but we lose any surface high at that point, and the coastal low isn’t sufficiently deep to generate low level CAD until it’s into Maine. It seems more likely to me that 800-900 warmth is being captured well on guidance for part II, but the surface CAD is significantly underdone. Most likely outcome is areas that are below freezing at the surface through part 1 remain so through part II. Surface temps stagnate while 800-900 warm slightly. Points south, around BDL, are mostly light freezing rain/drizzle, while points north, around PSM, are mostly sleet. Areas, in between (around ORH) are a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems more like a “we rot” situation, despite the coastal low development. I'm noticing a trend, most of the NH participants are taking a negative approach. The GOOD news is that it is only Saturday giving us around 38 hours to change our mind 5,369 times :-) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I honestly don’t give a hoot about any snow at this point. Just the ice is giving me fits. Dang it!!! I don’t think freezing rain is that big of a deal there. You’ll be snow to start and go over to pellets with probably crap ice crystals mixed in with the sleet. Maybe you get a glaze at the end? But I don’t see it as a huge deal. The ZR anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I honestly don’t give a hoot about any snow at this point. Just the ice is giving me fits. Dang it!!! If i was where you are, I would be concerned too about the ice but you could get pelted as well, Really havn't looked down there as i have my own battle to wage.......lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 My initial thoughts vs guidance is go long ice and sell rain/snow from BDL up to SNH. sleet favored from ORH to DAW. Freezing rain favored from ORH to BDL. SNH to ORH gets thumped on the front end with a few inches of snow... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Most of the meaningful precip is snow here with a brief period of IP at the end of part 1 and beginning of part 2 as the midlevels try to cool back down. 1.25-1.50" QPF will result in quite a mess. One little bump NE with warmer H8 air and we're talking half sleet and half snow. I think that's the route I'm leaning with a period of snow, solid pelting for awhile, and then we'll end as snow as the secondary begins to pick up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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