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New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01


dryslot
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Not intending this as a testament to the NAM's correctness in handling matters but ...that's pretty impressive how it parks that H NNE of Maine and for 24 to 30 hours, then moves it 0 while waves of QPF hose hammer at it from the OV right over over us.  

If you want to run an ice storm ...that's really how you get it done. Suppose for a second it's closer to reality - some may even see more sleet and snow...they may. But, where that goes ZR you could be talking light to moderate steady falls at 29 to 31 F, with a constant feed of lower DP air on an endless supply of ageo jet to make sure you don't survive - Jesusyikes...  I'm hoping here along Rt poopie that if this cold high scenario ( ala Euro even ) is right, we are deep enough in it to bee-bee accumulate 2.5" rather than accreting 1" of power sag

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not intending this as a testament to the NAM's correctness in handling matters but ...that's pretty impressive how it parks that H NNE of Maine and for 24 to 30 hours, then moves it 0 while waves of QPF hose hammer at it from the OV right over over us.  

If you want to run an ice storm ...that's really how you get it done. Suppose for a second it's closer to reality - some may even see more sleet and snow...they may. But, where that goes ZR you could be talking light to moderate steady falls at 29 to 31 F, with a constant feed of lower DP air on an endless supply of ageo jet to make sure you don't survive - Jesusyikes...  I'm hoping here along Rt poopie that if this cold high scenario ( ala Euro even ) is right, we are deep enough in it to bee-bee accumulate 2.5" rather than accreting 1" of power sag

We want a massive boob sag

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

meh... tick warmer all fields...but yeah, it's noise.  

I like pushin the buttons and testing the sensitivities - I'm disappointed there wasn't more hate thrown my way for saying that actually... You guys are letting me down

How about a couple steamers.........:weenie::weenie:

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

This  would be nice.  Lots of esthetic beauty with no  big issue with power, etc.

At least if there are power interuptions, there's no real cold once it pulls out.

 

Bogus. Let's get in those deep purples until we have nurples cuz we pinch ourselves so bad making sure we're alive during such an extraordinary meteorological event. 

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t mind it as much anymore and the more branches come down on the property, the better...free trimming/branch removal.

Oh My, clearly someone who has never dealt with the utter catastrophe of a bad ice storm. On '08 we lost many of our most mature ornamental trees, our beautiful oak and maples were topped, we lost two beautiful old Mulberry and spent a week chainsawing, our beautiful 3 acre property was destroyed. We lost our privacy from the nosy neighbor across the street. Over the last 11 years, some of the trees that we did not lose have recovered. Some show signs of starting to succumb to the insect and disease damage where the limbs were torn off. Our beautiful 100' plus, rare American elm took quite a beating. Not the natural pruning you want.   Not to mention, some of that "pruning" speared one of the limbs from a huge hemlock right through our roof, snapping two rafters in our antique home. We had no power for over 7 days. It was a terrible winter,  the character of our property was changed at least for our lifetime. I'd sat the "pruning" you speak of could be compared to having a small twister barrel through your property...I love weather but not that kind.

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Just now, sketcher709 said:

Oh My, clearly someone who has never dealt with the utter catastrophe of a bad ice storm. On '08 we lost many of our most mature ornamental trees, our beautiful oak and maples were topped, we lost two beautiful old Mulberry and spent a week chainsawing, our beautiful 3 acre property was destroyed. We lost our privacy from the nosy neighbor across the street. Over the last 11 years, some of the trees that we did not lose have recovered. Some show signs of starting to succumb to the insect and disease damage where the limbs were torn off. Our beautiful 100' plus, rare American elm took quite a beating. Not the natural pruning you want.   Not to mention, some of that "pruning" speared one of the limbs from a huge hemlock right through our roof, snapping two rafters in our antique home. We had no power for over 7 days. It was a terrible winter,  the character of our property was changed at least for our lifetime. I'd sat the "pruning" you speak of could be compared to having a small twister barrel through your property...I love weather but not that kind.

No doubt big ice is disruptive to life. I just don’t fear it like I used to. Mainly because I’m well prepared for it nowadays. 

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

F5 clown gives me about 6"....I'm comfy going 2-5" of snow/sleet right now, since it will probably trend farther north, and will underestimate mid level warmth, anyway.

Yeah and I'm still not sure that even the eurowx clown map can see all the layers. Most vendors only have H7 and H85. Both layers are below 0C but not by a lot and usually the warmest layer is going to be in between them in a setup like this. 

I'd definitely be downplaying the snow a lot unless this starts ticking consistently colder the next couple runs...which it still could. 

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's what happens when the SLP is kissing your azz, Usually,  PF would be sitting in a rocking chair rocking feverishly back and forth rubbing his hands together.

isn't the vast majority of any QPF from Monday 6z to Tuesday 0z  (i.e there isn't much to part 2 on most guidance) and isn't much QPF from the SLP kissing your behind?

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and I'm still not sure that even the eurowx clown map can see all the layers. Most vendors only have H7 and H85. Both layers are below 0C but not by a lot and usually the warmest layer is going to be in between them in a setup like this. 

I'd definitely be downplaying the snow a lot unless this starts ticking consistently colder the next couple runs...which it still could. 

The euro clown maps are an embarrassment. Worthless in this set up . They can't see all the layers and thus garbage  It's like the product gains some sort of legitimacy because it has Euro attatched to it. 

 

Watching SPC Winter weather trends is something i find valuable. Currently they have 50% or less chance of 2" South of MHT thru 8pm Monday evening

As far as ice goes SPC sees this as primarily N of PIKE and West of CT river (Berks/ S VT) have greater than 30% shot of 1/4 inch ice. 

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Big cave to GFS  as expected

It hardly budged....GFS is the one that caved dramatically, from a cutter to a colder event.

That said, I think the EURO is too cold...here is why...

It trended both NORTH AND LATER with the redevelopment of the mid levels, yet got colder...makes no sense.

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