New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01

[wxeyeNH]

So Grey Maine decided not to include Grafton County NH into the winter storm warning area.  Sometimes they break the county into 2.  Most of the population is in that far SE corner  (Plymouth area).   With 1.50" of qpf and perhaps a lot of sleet mixed in which makes roads worse I would have gone with a warning.

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Final Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/final-call-protracted-nye-mixed-bag.html

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Thanks for the thoughts, Ray.  Can you clarify the ice zones?  The GT .5 is clear, but I'm not deciphering the other regions of up-to .5, up to .25, and the mainly rain/sleet regions.

Thanks again--good luck with the call.

[tavwtby]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:00 PM, moneypitmike said:

I this amounts to about 4 of our posters.

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yeah I'm not digging this map... another please...one thing I don't like is ice, i can deal if it is on top of the snow but straight ice sucks

[tavwtby]

currently raining at 38/24...dews are low

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:07 PM, moneypitmike said:

Thanks for the thoughts, Ray.  Can you clarify the ice zones?  The GT .5 is clear, but I'm not deciphering the other regions of up-to .5, up to .25, and the mainly rain/sleet regions.

Thanks again--good luck with the call.

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Just look where the text is...didn't want to more ice boundaries because it would be a mess.

.5" is at that latitude of the jack areas in between them. .25" north due to sleet contamination, and .25 in to south due to less cold drain. Exception being higher spots of nw CT.

[ma blizzard]

Not excited about the recent trends for around ORH .. hoping for sleet but very concerned about how much QPF could be in the form of freezing rain. That 850-700 mb warm layer is very deep and warm.

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just look where the text is...didn't want to more ice boundaries because it would be a mess.

.5" is at that latitude of the jack areas in between them. .25" north due to sleet contamination, and .25 in to south due to less cold drain. Exception being higher spots of nw CT.

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Thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:28 PM, moneypitmike said:

Thanks.

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I should have been more detailed in indicating less ice in CT river valley, but it is what it is..

[weathafella]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Final Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/final-call-protracted-nye-mixed-bag.html

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50 inches of ice...no electricity till 2022?

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:54 PM, weathafella said:

50 inches of ice...no electricity till 2022?

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lol--I had let that one slide.  Imagine if it were snow

[weathafella]

I think there will be little effect of frozen of any kind south of the pike.  It seems the push has become a pull.  It happens.

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:57 PM, weathafella said:

I think there will be little effect of frozen of any kind south of the pike.  It seems the push has become a pull.  It happens.

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Some do not want to hear this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/29/2019 at 9:54 PM, weathafella said:

50 inches of ice...no electricity till 2022?

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There is a period there, on the first line...but it’s going to be a long time before Ray’s maps are modern looking and weenie friendly. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just me , but I’ll take the forecast from a long time CT met over weenies . I think it’s 50/50 of bigger ice vs under .50

 

[wx2fish]

Well have to see if it continues, but the hrrr has been consistent with decent burst of snow in far ne MA early tomorrow morning 

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:12 PM, wx2fish said:

Well have to see if it continues, but the hrrr has been consistent with decent burst of snow in far ne MA early tomorrow morning 

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HRRR keeps my area all snow. expecting a nice front end dump 4-6 inches tonight into tommorow 

[wx2fish]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:14 PM, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

HRRR keeps my area all snow. expecting a nice front end dump 4-6 inches tonight into tommorow 

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I'm sure its overdone on the southern extent but it's been there for a few runs

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:22 PM, wx2fish said:

I'm sure its overdone on the southern extent but it's been there for a few runs

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RAP looks similar

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is a period there, on the first line...but it’s going to be a long time before Ray’s maps are modern looking and weenie friendly. 

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Haha Better than last year, at least.

[monadnocks]

The BOX map has the .25-.5" ice accretion continuing east to about Townsend, MA. Yet, just over the border, GYX has the same range only going through maybe Rindge, NH. For those of us who live relatively near the NH/MA border, it's a conundrum. Do we have a relatively mild case of icing? Again, like so many posters, I'm not rooting for a major ice storm. The great photos of the sun through the iced, bent over branches didn't balance out the twelve days without power. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:36 PM, monadnocks said:

The BOX map has the .25-.5" ice accretion continuing east to about Townsend, MA. Yet, just over the border, GYX has the same range only going through maybe Rindge, NH. For those of us who live relatively near the NH/MA border, it's a conundrum. Do we have a relatively mild case of icing? Again, like so many posters, I'm not rooting for a major ice storm. The great photos of the sun through the iced, bent over branches didn't balance out the twelve days without power. 

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sleet 

[DomNH]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:36 PM, monadnocks said:

The BOX map has the .25-.5" ice accretion continuing east to about Townsend, MA. Yet, just over the border, GYX has the same range only going through maybe Rindge, NH. For those of us who live relatively near the NH/MA border, it's a conundrum. Do we have a relatively mild case of icing? Again, like so many posters, I'm not rooting for a major ice storm. The great photos of the sun through the iced, bent over branches didn't balance out the twelve days without power. 

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We’re getting scalped. Wouldn’t expect damaging ice. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:38 PM, DomNH said:

We’re getting scalped. Wouldn’t expect damaging ice. 

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Ya we are.

The poster at 1K in W CT seems truly screwed with icing and i would say Greenfield Chris likely as well,  looks like anyone near 1k in Western SNE is lights out

[dryslot]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:45 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya we are.

The poster at 1K in W CT seems truly screwed with icing and i would say Greenfield Chris likely as well,  looks like anyone near 1k in Western SNE is lights out

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Literally.

[Connecticut Appleman]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:45 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya we are.

The poster at 1K in W CT seems truly screwed with icing and i would say Greenfield Chris likely as well,  looks like anyone near 1k in Western SNE is lights out

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We'll see how this goes.  There is something to be said for having a 20kW generator and 1,500 gallons of propane in the tanks.  I'm right at 1,000 feet.

[PowderBeard]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Just me , but I’ll take the forecast from a long time CT met over weenies . I think it’s 50/50 of bigger ice vs under .50

 

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[ORH_wxman]

If you aren't icing in the first few hours overnight, it prob won't happen until tomorrow morning. Drain doesn't really get going until about 09z and the secondary push is prob like 4-6 hours after that into midday. 

Could start as a period of sleet for the pike region as the warm layer is initially pretty shallow even though the cold layer early on is kind of weak. Could go either way though...if it does start as sleet in metrowest, it would prob flip to rain before too long...and then we see what happens with the cold drain later on. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If you aren't icing in the first few hours overnight, it prob won't happen until tomorrow morning. Drain doesn't really get going until about 09z and the secondary push is prob like 4-6 hours after that into midday. 

Could start as a period of sleet for the pike region as the warm layer is initially pretty shallow even though the cold layer early on is kind of weak. Could go either way though...if it does start as sleet in metrowest, it would prob flip to rain before too long...and then we see what happens with the cold drain later on. 

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So we rain may be plain rain in Nashua after some sleet pellets until around 3-4 am?

[dryslot]

Glad its pretty cut and dry up here for what will mainly fall, Good luck with the ice.

[monadnocks]

  On 12/29/2019 at 10:38 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

sleet 

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I'm good with the sleet-fest. It'll probably be warm enough to scrap off and move out of the way. The disconnect between the two maps mildly irks my "data should be well coordinated" self.