moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The real snow map: Congrats, Jeff. Swing and a miss for Pit2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree with the bolded....short-term mesos often play catchup with that as we close- Still maybe under-modeled....again, this is low level cold. We are all cooked for snow in SNE. Fair enough. But it doesn’t look to be a siggy Ice Storm for “A lot” of the area currently. 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even he’s getting siggy ice in Southington Low level cold hangs on here(or advects in here) pretty well in these type of situations, but I’ll sell siggy ice here too. .1, .15 at most here if everything breaks right. NWS has very little to No ice for most areas outside of NW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 45 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: There is almost no snow otg in N Conway. Just piles. Yeah that’s really bad for this time of year... holiday week is shot obviously, but hopefully start building a pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Looking good for my trip to Loon on Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Looking great for ME Lakes Region up to Mahoosucs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Hard sell on those euro snow maps for up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hard sell on those euro snow maps for up here. I don't see the Euro snow amounts but for Dendriteland I think you need to tick up that 2-4" snow forecast then pellets for you by a few inches. 1.60" is a lot of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Maybe depends on the initial burst if heavy enough can hold off mid level warming by an hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: I don't see the Euro snow amounts but for Dendriteland I think you need to tick up that 2-4" snow forecast then pellets for you by a few inches. 1.60" is a lot of qpf The maps are wrong based on H7 temps. It tries to show us snowing at times despite H7 being >0C. I almost wonder if the model is seeing the pixie dust snow grains in the cold layer and giving that predominance on ptype. Maybe we do better than 2-4" but heavy heavy toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Either way a bullet proof base if it can snow again soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The maps are wrong based on H7 temps. It tries to show us snowing at times despite H7 being >0C. I almost wonder if the model is seeing the pixie dust snow grains in the cold layer and giving that predominance on ptype. Maybe we do better than 2-4" but heavy heavy toss. Clown maps cause more grief than they are worth when it comes to transition events. They really should just be religated to the trash heap except maybe on pure snow events...but even then we start getting those weenie kuchera maps that think 15F at the surface will always produce 20 to 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 H7 temps valid 12z tomorrow... Euro ------ GFS GGEM --- ARPEGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: The maps are wrong based on H7 temps. It tries to show us snowing at times despite H7 being >0C. I almost wonder if the model is seeing the pixie dust snow grains in the cold layer and giving that predominance on ptype. Maybe we do better than 2-4" but heavy heavy toss. Your area looks to fight that battle @H7 with the WAA, Does not look to be any factor here or @H85 for the duration on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 That latest GYX map that was posted before the Euro run looks almost identical to the 12z Nam clown map on PV..............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: Your area looks to fight that battle @H7 with the WAA, Does not look to be any factor here or @H85 for the duration on the Euro. Still tossed like a DIT meal out a car window after a holiday GTG. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: The wind speed component is a factor. As Ryan as pointed out wind increases accretion rates. Complex formulas involved but Utilities especially need all parameters to prepare. Once the occurrence of freezing rain was determined by one of the above methods, estimates of ice accretion thickness on surface objects were calculated at each model grid point using the simple ice accretion model (Jones 1998). The uniform radial ice thickness on a cylinder, accumulated over the duration of a storm, is calculated by where Req is the uniform radial ice thickness (mm), N is the number of hours of freezing precipitation, ρi is the density of ice (=0.9 g cm−3), ρ0 is the density of water (=1.0 g cm−3), P is the precipitation rate (mm h−1), V is the wind speed (m s−1), and W is the liquid water content (Wj = 0.067P0.846j Yeah, we built the freezing rain accumulation model (2015) into our gfe at the office to get a look at that which I believe adds skill over this simple ice accretion model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Bufkit has an inch of FRZRN from NAM and GFS in ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Still tossed like a DIT meal out a car window after a holiday GTG.What?Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: What? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk One too many Zimas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: One too many Zimas. His first car window accretion to verify. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Keeps giving the triangle (brian gene jeff) double digits. Despite other stuff warmer and less qpf Me likey too. Skiers, snowmobilers, etc approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Hard sell on those euro snow maps for up here. Hell, I didn't want to go to work this week anyway LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Ice storm warning here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 See you on the other side hill people. Fire up the gennies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Ice storm warning here Congrats! These are the times I wish Worcester got lumped into the northern zone. T'aint exactly Rutland and T'aint exactly Milford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ice storm warning here I think this gets extend south for the rest of ORH county and norther Tolland and Windham Counties. Models have been showing pocket of heavy icing in and around Union, Stafford, Woodstock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Leave it to MPM to downplay a significant icestorm over a relatively large area of NW RI/ NE and NW CT all the way up to VT and east to ORH and says it will impact 3-4 posters. Better check the HREF I this amounts to about 4 of our posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 How about a precipitation hole for Worcester? 2008 was more than enough. Give me two feet of snow almost anytime, but ice? Nothing romantic about a freezing cold house and nowhere to stay. Really. Its like wishing for a direct hit by a tornado or hurricane. Just doesn't make sense that anyone wants to be it the bulls eye for this sort of thing. Don't like this 4C with a dew of -4C. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/final-call-protracted-nye-mixed-bag.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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