New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Imagine if this were snow.....

6-12".

[dendrite]

Yup..definitely a trend toward more sleet up here. I'm leaning 2-4" snow and then pile up the pingers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha...no snow or frz rain here on the NAM...mainly IP with a bit of rain, presumably late Monday night into Tuesday.

I buy it.

Only difference for MBY maybe a hair less plain rain, since the marine influence often stops a few miles beyond KLWM.

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, just give me an ice-clown map...thanks lol

Point being doubt they figure in wind speed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Point being doubt they figure in wind speed 

I know....great post/info; I was just "clowning" around....I got jokes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am normally loath to forecast a large quantity of sleet because it seldom works out, but I think this is a case where it may....I think the only comp. that I can recall for over an inch worth of sleet is VD Day 2007....again, not implying 30" of snow in VT and NYS...

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha...no snow or frz rain here on the NAM...mainly IP with a bit of rain, presumably late Monday night into Tuesday.

I buy it.

Can you run GFL?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha...no snow or frz rain here on the NAM...mainly IP with a bit of rain, presumably late Monday night into Tuesday.

I buy it.

 Yeah you're getting a scalper there. 

Not sure about his area near 495 belt out to ORH. I could see some pingers for a time and then it's close for ZR. ORH will def be below freezing once it get going for a few hours, but a bit lower down is a bigger question.

I'm still very leery of model guidance not handling that secondary push of cold on Monday morning/midday very well at all. Could be a situation where some areas like Bedford over to my hood are actually cold rain (after some sleet) but then fall back below freezing and flip to ZR with that secondary push...then maybe even go back to pellets if that cold layer at 900mb is strong enough. It will be interesting to track. 

The biggest problem I have with model guidance is that they will tend to have the surface too geostrophic to the west of the CF....they will kind of broadbrush this ENE sfc flow when in reality it ends up ENE to the east of the CF but the west side of the CF might be backed 30 degrees. The models in this case aren't even really showing much of a CF which is kind of weird...it's like they are evaporationally cooling the air on the coast with that lower dew feed and just extrapolating that same air into the interior which doesn't make that much sense to me...BOS isn't going to be 33-34F while ORH is 31-32F. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Can you run GFL?

Here...pick your station:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLWM&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 Yeah you're getting a scalper there. 

Not sure about his area near 495 belt out to ORH. I could see some pingers for a time and then it's close for ZR. ORH will def be below freezing once it get going for a few hours, but a bit lower down is a bigger question.

I'm still very leery of model guidance not handling that secondary push of cold on Monday morning/midday very well at all. Could be a situation where some areas like Bedford over to my hood are actually cold rain (after some sleet) but then fall back below freezing and flip to ZR with that secondary push...then maybe even go back to pellets if that cold layer at 900mb is strong enough. It will be interesting to track. 

The biggest problem I have with model guidance is that they will tend to have the surface too geostrophic to the west of the CF....they will kind of broadbrush this ENE sfc flow when in reality it ends up ENE to the east of the CF but the west side of the CF might be backed 30 degrees. The models in this case aren't even really showing much of a CF which is kind of weird...it's like they are evaporationally cooling the air on the coast with that lower dew feed and just extrapolating that same air into the interior which doesn't make that much sense to me...BOS isn't going to be 33-34F while ORH is 31-32F. 

That is a given.....I always dismiss that and make a deduction based upon knowledge of local climo. They will also often try to place the coastal gradient at like MHT, or KCON, which is of course absurd....its going to be near KLWM, and often times can be the demarcation between 33* air and 19* air, however its still modeled as 27 vs 33.

Even mesos just don't have the resolution, though they are improving. This is where experienced forecasters earn their money....or experienced weenies like me earn their 200 blog hits

[qg_omega]

It’s mostly freezing rain in the Adirondacks

[wx2fish]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 Yeah you're getting a scalper there. 

Not sure about his area near 495 belt out to ORH. I could see some pingers for a time and then it's close for ZR. ORH will def be below freezing once it get going for a few hours, but a bit lower down is a bigger question.

I'm still very leery of model guidance not handling that secondary push of cold on Monday morning/midday very well at all. Could be a situation where some areas like Bedford over to my hood are actually cold rain (after some sleet) but then fall back below freezing and flip to ZR with that secondary push...then maybe even go back to pellets if that cold layer at 900mb is strong enough. It will be interesting to track. 

The biggest problem I have with model guidance is that they will tend to have the surface too geostrophic to the west of the CF....they will kind of broadbrush this ENE sfc flow when in reality it ends up ENE to the east of the CF but the west side of the CF might be backed 30 degrees. The models in this case aren't even really showing much of a CF which is kind of weird...it's like they are evaporationally cooling the air on the coast with that lower dew feed and just extrapolating that same air into the interior which doesn't make that much sense to me...BOS isn't going to be 33-34F while ORH is 31-32F. 

It's kind of strange. I find it hard to believe if we have U20s working into SE NH gonna just moderate before reaching ORH. I also agree it's kind of weird theres not a more pronounced CF front modeled with that high. I have to think theyll be more of a Temp gradient 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

It's kind of strange. I find it hard to believe if we have U20s working into SE NH gonna just moderate before reaching ORH. I also agree it's kind of weird theres not a more pronounced CF front modeled with that high. I have to think theyll be more of a Temp gradient 

Yeah. Initially the temps could be pretty diffuse across the region because the antecedent airmass kind of sucks...but as we get that push into S ME and S NH there should definitely be a gradient setting up. 

Im expecting it to be more defined than models show and also push further SW. The big question is by how much though. Does it drain into just N middlesex and N ORH county? Or does it go further and how intense is it? 

[Modfan]

Dew points in NE CT hovering around 23-25; lets see how much they rise today

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. Initially the temps could be pretty diffuse across the region because the antecedent airmass kind of sucks...but as we get that push into S ME and S NH there should definitely be a gradient setting up. 

Im expecting it to be more defined than models show and also push further SW. The big question is by how much though. Does it drain into just N middlesex and M ORH county? Or does it go further and how intense is it? 

I think at worst it mill make it to ORH.....it sounds dumb, but whenever ORH is close to any sort of boundary, err on the wintery side...not to mention the topography is going to shotgun that cold south between the hill and coastal front....more nebulous below ORH latitude.

[mahk_webstah]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yup..definitely a trend toward more sleet up here. I'm leaning 2-4" snow and then pile up the pingers.

They often trend that way unfortunately 

[moneypitmike]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

6-12".

My post was in jest. 

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Leave it to MPM to downplay a significant icestorm over a relatively large area of NW RI/ NE and NW CT all the way up to VT and east to ORH and says it will impact 3-4 posters. Better check the HREF

Wake me when your power comes back on. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

My brother was skiing in the whites yesterday.... he said those areas desperately need some snow. Good for them... this should help

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My brother was skiing in the whites yesterday.... he said those areas desperately need some snow. Good for them... this should help

There is almost no snow otg in N Conway.  Just piles.

[Modfan]

Why does HREF ice model treat the Quinebaug river valley in Easten CT like it's the CT River valley? Decent hills from Thompson to East Killingly, Pomfret and Woodstock

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro ticked colder

[wxeyeNH]

Looking at Euro.   Crap load of qpf.    This run is mostly all snow for me with some sleet.  Long duration storm for Central NH

[TalcottWx]

OK... I've got to drive to Windsor to pick up the 'wife'... When is icing supposed to get bad, I was originally planning on going Monday. Guessing I should go late tonight? 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Leave it to MPM to downplay a significant icestorm over a relatively large area of NW RI/ NE and NW CT all the way up to VT and east to ORH and says it will impact 3-4 posters. Better check the HREF

It’s not gonna be a significant ice storm for many.  Fake news and wishcasting again today..?  You are not under an ice storm warning currently, and 85% of SNE isn’t either.   The guidance today has backed off on the cold press, as is usually the case.  So no ice storm for you, and most of SNE.  
 

N. Half of litchfield county and western 1/4 of Massachusetts is under the gun currently...and that’s a small area of SNE when taken in totality.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s not gonna be a significant ice storm for many.  Fake news and wishcasting again today..?  You are not under an ice storm warning currently, and 85% of SNE isn’t either.   The guidance today has backed off on the cold press, as is usually the case.  So no ice storm for you, and most of SNE.  
 

N. Half of litchfield county and western 1/4 of Massachusetts is under the gun currently...and that’s a small area of SNE when taken in totality.

I disagree with the bolded....short-term  mesos often play catchup with that as we close-

Still maybe under-modeled....again, this is low level cold.

We are all cooked for snow in SNE.

[dryslot]

12z Euro not backing off on the qpf, Still quite robust, Ticked up from 0z

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z Euro not backing off on the qpf, Still quite robust with the qpf, Ticked up from 0z

The real snow map:

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree with the bolded....short-term  mesos often play catchup with that as we close-

Still maybe under-modeled....again, this is low level cold.

We are all cooked for snow in SNE.

Even he’s getting siggy ice in Southington 

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There is almost no snow otg in N Conway.  Just piles.

Ski conditions from mount snow to Stratton to Killington to Stowe to wildcat to loon are terrible right now . Dust on crust 

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro not backing off on the qpf, Still quite robust, Ticked up from 0z

Keeps giving the triangle (brian gene jeff) double digits.  Despite other stuff warmer and less qpf