New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Maybe we can warm what ever temps would be needed to ice in KBED or KASH

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean everyone isn’t out to get you...

He may need a therapy session with Tippy

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure what I did to upset Ginx , but man is he out to get me . Attacks here and Twitter today. Good luck to everyone as we near the event 

Small lies to big lies, false accusations of emotions, false interpretations of posts, attempts at making up things I never said or implied, all to achieve your agenda. Tried and true method of your posting to many many members here. Accuse them of stalking you. You want to play the game we can play. It's like feeding candy to a baby 

 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Looking at local stations in S ORH county and NE CT dew points down to 24/25 tonight; those forcasted above 32 tomorrow?

They are modeled to rise into the low 30s tomorrow night. If dews are in the mid-20s still at this time (and esp toward midnight) tomorrow night in CT, then ice is going to be a big deal I think. The big secondary push though occurs between 12z and 18z Monday. Dews drop into the low to mid teens in southern Maine...and that could reinforce into SNE but a lot of models don't want to show it that far southwest....but experience says to hedge further southwest. 

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Can’t lie, I’m bummed out on missing the biggish ice potential. Possibly my favorite meteorological phenomenon. 

Maybe one of the next of several cutters will work out

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

They are modeled to rise into the low 30s tomorrow night. If dews are in the mid-20s still at this time (and esp toward midnight) tomorrow night in CT, then ice is going to be a big deal I think. The big secondary push though occurs between 12z and 18z Monday. Dews drop into the low to mid teens in southern Maine...and that could reinforce into SNE but a lot of models don't want to show it that far southwest....but experience says to hedge further southwest. 

Yea that will be an important time frame. Does the waa get so strong it sets up a wall slowing the drain or does the drain continue unimpeded.  Each scenario is on the table,  hence the watches are up. Interesting day tomorrow watching the surface flow and dews. 

[dendrite]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Maybe we can warm what ever temps would be needed to ice in KBED or KASH

idk man...those dews advecting in through Maine are frigid and will probably keep the low levels wetbulbed safely in the IP range pretty far south. That slug of moisture from the SW hitting the dry brick wall will just evap cool down and be advected back southwestward in the low levels as a cold air feed. It does look a bit like a mini barrier jet scenario like what they get out in the Rockies...I know Will had mentioned that the other day. This is the southern extent of the low dew push on the 3k NAM. That's valid 21z Monday after the event has been ongoing for 18+ hours.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Small lies to big lies, false accusations of emotions, false interpretations of posts, attempts at making up things I never said or implied, all to achieve your agenda. Tried and true method of your posting to many many members here. Accuse them of stalking you. You want to play the game we can play. It's like feeding candy to a baby 

 

I’ll just cease my interactions with you if this is the case. Good luck to you on the storm 

[CoastalWx]

You could draw a line on that dew graphic from the Maine coastline and pivot that down to NH coastline and keep going SW. That’s a good proxy where temps will be either side of 32 for quite a while. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk man...those dews advecting in through Maine are frigid and will probably keep the low levels wetbulbed safely in the IP range pretty far south. That slug of moisture from the SW hitting the dry brick wall will just evap cool down and be advected back southwestward in the low levels as a cold air feed. It does look a bit like a mini barrier jet scenario like what they get out in the Rockies...I know Will had mentioned that the other day. This is the southern extent of the low dew push on the 3k NAM. That's valid 21z Monday after the event has been ongoing for 18+ hours.

I agree..still expect mainly IP here, but man....that warming trend aloft can stop now.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

idk man...those dews advecting in through Maine are frigid and will probably keep the low levels wetbulbed safely in the IP range pretty far south. That slug of moisture from the SW hitting the dry brick wall will just evap cool down and be advected back southwestward in the low levels as a cold air feed. It does look a bit like a mini barrier jet scenario like what they get out in the Rockies...I know Will had mentioned that the other day. This is the southern extent of the low dew push on the 3k NAM. That's valid 21z Monday after the event has been ongoing for 18+ hours.

Yeah the issue with this is once that air gets moving southwest from southern Maine, it becomes really hard to stop it. We need some good WAA to stop it but where do we get it? We'd get some right near the water but that would just set up a boundary right near the water on the easterly flow there but that's just going to probably accelerate it southwest on the west side of that boundary. It will be like going through a tunnel between the boundary and the hills/monadnocks to the west.  

Topography is really the most effective way to slow it on that setup. 

 

It's hard not to see a huge push southwest into SNE (at least back to S ORH hills and N RI) unless the entire setup weakens (I.e the high ends up further north and/or weaker). I'm trying to think of other reasons....but those areas I just mentioned are really the first topography it will encounter. 

 

[ineedsnow]

NAM brings more ice here now

[CoastalWx]

00z NAM is definitely colder vs 18z.  That's a hell of a push SW from Maine. 

[Bostonseminole]

Should be interesting tracking this next 36hrs.. keeps trending cooler.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Pick a run, any run...you get rain SCT. 

[weathafella]

Those are frigid H925-850...above that warm.

[dendrite]

IP into N CT this run.

[dendrite]

Out in MRG land 15z Monday.

[dryslot]

Ice

[Hoth]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pick a run, any run...you get rain SCT. 

Yup. No hair pulling on this one. We know what we're in for. 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yup. No hair pulling on this one. We know what we're in for. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don’t know I’ve seen the models do this before… Particularly in this 36 to 42 hour lead window. 
 

They seem to wanna figure out how they can make the sounding just the most absurd severely inverted as imaginatively possible. Almost like they use each current to force the other ones countercurrent as a mass balancing or something and it ends up over exaggerating the warm over excruciatingly cold low levels. Then get closer they ease off the throttle either aloft or below; but in this case I think we’re going to pull back the warming aloft maybe a tick or two but it will make it more reasonable. I just see the cold is being a higher confidence scenario below

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll just cease my interactions with you if this is the case. Good luck to you on the storm 

Lol just be a good person 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Finally got to look at a bunch of model runs, what an interesting set up.   That high press is pretty damn robust but those mid-level temps are just a torch surging north.  I can see sleet getting pretty far into CNE and Ice getting into central CT.  

 My area is a tough call, could end up being many hours of pelting and only a moderate glaze or could end up being on the edge of warning type icing.   Unless things change dramatically overnight I am not feeling much snow here I think the IP flip comes pretty quick.

 I would love to see a good slug of snow for the ski areas  but I don’t have a lot of confidence in how part two is going to play out for NNE.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea that will be an important time frame. Does the waa get so strong it sets up a wall slowing the drain or does the drain continue unimpeded.  Each scenario is on the table,  hence the watches are up. Interesting day tomorrow watching the surface flow and dews. 

Nowcast should be a blast.

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don’t know I’ve seen the models do this before… Particularly in this 36 to 42 hour lead window. 
 

They seem to wanna figure out how they can make the sounding just the most absurd severely inverted as imaginatively possible. Almost like they use each current to force the other ones countercurrent as a mass balancing or something and it ends up over exaggerating the warm over excruciatingly cold low levels. Then get closer they ease off the throttle either aloft or below; but in this case I think we’re going to pull back the warming aloft maybe a tick or two but it will make it more reasonable. I just see the cold is being a higher confidence scenario below

A weenie +10C spec at 810mb sitting over -6C at 840mb. It almost looks like a velocity couplet.

[dendrite]

The warm layer is probably deep enough and warm enough here for all ZR in the high terrain in NE CT.

[ineedsnow]

FWIW RGEM  is coming in way colder

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nowcast should be a blast.

 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

That's 3k. 12k had more ice in Northern Ct