New Year Storm Thread 12/29-01/01

[weathafella]

Yes for now the press has reached its limit it seems...back sliding a bit.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow is not an option anywhere in SNE. This is zr south of 90 and sleet north. 

[NorEastermass128]

Disclaimer...I fully expect rain here. Maybe Ray scores some IP?

[kdxken]

Keep it North. Still crap left over from last time.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow is not an option anywhere in SNE. This is zr south of 90 and sleet north. 

I agree the snow is basically zilch in this for SNE until maybe some light stuff at the end. Even CNE is torched in the midlevels...I don't have the entire Euro soundings but H7 is 0C all the way up to C NH/C VT and S ME...and H7 isn't the warmest layer. Prob like H75-H8. 

IP/ZR is the threat. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yes for now the press has reached its limit it seems...back sliding a bit.

Caution with 6z Euro as it only covers part 1 of the 2 part system and looks similar to 0Z Euro at 90 hrs. It's at that point heights crash and the CNNE peeps go to town

[CoastalWx]

Kevin depending on the solution, it could be nothing for you or icy. You are further removed from the cold source. Like 2008. Keep that in mind. This isn’t like the air mass is entrenched which is how you get your icing. It’s advecting in. 

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree the snow is basically zilch in this for SNE until maybe some light stuff at the end. Even CNE is torched in the midlevels...I don't have the entire Euro soundings but H7 is 0C all the way up to C NH/C VT and S ME...and H7 isn't the warmest layer. Prob like H75-H8. 

IP/ZR is the threat. 

 

Gardner Mass looks like a snow profile part 2. I think the Euro does show snow in SNE. I highlighted that period in the temp and RH profile.  

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow is not an option anywhere in SNE. This is zr south of 90 and sleet north. 

Disagree. Still time to evaluate.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gardner Mass looks like a snow profile part 2. I think the Euro does show snow on SNE. I highlighted that period in the temp and RH profile.  

Yeah it's possible round 2 could produce several inches but my guess is it would be further north for that threat. We'll see. 

[Spanks45]

12 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not seeing much for the southern CT counties. GL to the north.

Cold rain...wish it it were a warm rain though.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's possible round 2 could produce several inches but my guess is it would be further north for that threat. We'll see. 

There is also an initial snow thump profile on the Euro for NE Mass that produces 2 to 3 inches in spots before upper levels warm. Discount snow with caution 

[Baroclinic Zone]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow is not an option anywhere in SNE. This is zr south of 90 and sleet north. 

I'll disagree.  Classic N of I-90 and Hills snows.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

There is also an initial snow thump profile on the Euro for NE Mass that produces 2 to 3 inches in spots before upper levels warm. Discount snow with caution 

Gonna need to trend colder for that IMHO. H7 is barely below 0C. My guess is there is a warm layer in there between H7 and H85 that isn't being seen on those algorithms/extrapolated soundings. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Cold rain...wish it it were a warm rain though.

When you shove every low to our west, even with good confluence, we’re usually on the wrong side of the gradient. We need to reshuffle the deck and deal a better PAC.

[CoastalWx]

6z eps doesn’t have much snow at all with round 2 in SNE. 

[CoastalWx]

Too bad the pattern blows. Big high nosing in with low off Delmarva and we can’t even buy a widespread frozen event. Normally that’s a lock, but not with a putrid airmass ahead of this. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll disagree.  Classic N of I-90 and Hills snows.

It is early to discount anything. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll disagree.  Classic N of I-90 and Hills snows.

I don’t even think it’s close. There’s way too much mid level warmth . Even SNH

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It is early to discount anything. 

I disagree there.  No snow or ice for me.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Still looking like a sleet fest around here.  Some rain, some freezing rain, a little snow

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hoping we advect in 33f air lol

jk

 

[moneypitmike]

I refuse to get excited for this.  Remember how the EC was a consistently cold model for the last event.  GFS, while it trended cooler continued to be the warm model showing mostly ip/zr with little snow.  The GFS was closer to reality than the EC come game-time, and many of us still have crusty ice to show for it.

The lead up to this already has a starting point warmer than the last.  I anticipate we'll find the press and NE flow are overdone.  34* rain south of the pike with a little sleet between the pike and Rt 2, and a more veritable wintry mix north of Rt 2.  A Hippy kind of winter and an 'at last' for Jeff and Lava.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna need to trend colder for that IMHO. H7 is barely below 0C. My guess is there is a warm layer in there between H7 and H85 that isn't being seen on those algorithms/extrapolated soundings. 

Yea, I'd sell that.

[Whineminster]

20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still looking like a sleet fest around here.  Some rain, some freezing rain, a little snow

Let's get it a little warmer so we have sig ice.  Only issue with this event is it's gonna be piss warm leading into the event, so the ground and trees will be warm limiting accretion.  

[CoastalWx]

Well the gfs cutter idea is gone, so euro won that. You’re basically arguing about who is right or wrong within a few degrees. That’s tough to say at the moment. I like Will’s post yesterday about wanting some more cold pushes before this inevitably ticks north. We’ll see what 12z guidance does today, but I’d like to see another 00z euro like look. I don’t expect more than a cold rain with a few pellets here locally and on the coast. Room for change though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Too bad the pattern blows. Big high nosing in with low off Delmarva and we can’t even buy a widespread frozen event. Normally that’s a lock, but not with a putrid airmass ahead of this. 

I feel like I'll end up with like 3" of sleet.

[moneypitmike]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like I'll end up with like 3" of sleet.

2.8". 

Seriously, I think you will get that.  I do think the ice-angst for areas below RT 2 and certainly south of the Pike is overdone.  Could there be some? I Sure, but I think the low-level cold will come in less so as this ticks back north.  Further, Wineminster's comment on the lack of antecdent cold will mitigate icing potential.  Bottom line, I'm echoing my earlier post and there will be much lament over the cold rain.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I refuse to get excited for this.  Remember how the EC was a consistently cold model for the last event.  GFS, while it trended cooler continued to be the warm model showing mostly ip/zr with little snow.  The GFS was closer to reality than the EC come game-time, and many of us still have crusty ice to show for it.

The lead up to this already has a starting point warmer than the last.  I anticipate we'll find the press and NE flow are overdone.  34* rain south of the pike with a little sleet between the pike and Rt 2, and a more veritable wintry mix north of Rt 2.  A Hippy kind of winter and an 'at last' for Jeff and Lava.

The difference this time though is going to be which model to trust with lower levels as we get closer. Euro can trend warmer but still be some icing issues over interior.

GFS was hot garbage last event in the low levels...it only had the further north midlevels correct. 

So id be careful basing a forecast off the GFS temps below 900mb. There are still some synoptics that we have to reconcile in this event so nobody should be married to a solution yet. But this is pretty classic for hedging warmer aloft and colder in the low levels. 

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

over to Brian, Gene to Jeffafafa is for high end foot plus amounts

Would like that.  Much easier than sleet or freezing rain.  Snowmobilers are itching to use their sleds