dryslot Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Looks like we are moving towards a mixed winter event as we head into new year, Discuss it here. 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 C/NNE ready to cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 We'll probably ruin what could've been a nice dewy event to heal the dry skin with some useless glop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: We'll probably ruin what could've been a nice dewy event to heal the dry skin with some useless glop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Making preps now for a NY in the dark in N CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Making preps now for a NY in the dark in N CT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Dryslot just jinxed the event. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Making preps now for a NY in the dark in N CT Maybe turn off the main breaker tonight and give it a trial run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Maybe turn off the main breaker tonight and give it a trial run? Yup already in place 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Maybe turn off the main breaker tonight and give it a trial run? Nah....Rip the service clear off the house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup already in place Did you wash it and buff it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 I wonder if Ginx is concerned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 18z GFS looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: 18z GFS looks cold. Warmer than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Warmer than 12z Kitchen sink event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wonder if Ginx is concerned? Oh now you seek my opinion. Lol no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Oh now you seek my opinion. Lol no So just rainer for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So just rainer for you? You asked if I was concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: You asked if I was concerned Well if you’re not then you’re thinking Rainer there. Because we have zero chance of snow or even much sleet . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well if you’re not then you’re thinking Rainer there. Because we have zero chance of snow or even much sleet . Right now I'm fully expecting a 35F Rainer for most of the event...then maybe transitioning to ZR/IP later in the event and eventually some light snow. But if we see euro tick a little colder than it already is, then I'll start becoming concerned for bigger ice. 12z run was a sleet bomb for my area and prob ZR for you, but I'm expecting this to tick warmer again as we get closer with that monster ULL out to the west...so I want to see some colder trends first before it comes back warmer again....that leaves wiggle room. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Right now I'm fully expecting a 35F Rainer for most of the event...then maybe transitioning to ZR/IP later in the event and eventually some light snow. But if we see euro tick a little colder than it already is, then I'll start becoming concerned for bigger ice. 12z run was a sleet bomb for my area and prob ZR for you, but I'm expecting this to tick warmer again as we get closer with that monster ULL out to the west...so I want to see some colder trends first before it comes back warmer again....that leaves wiggle room. I’m not expecting that at all. Every run has gone colder. This is a very anomalous setup. The high keeps getting stronger each run. I recall the same was though with the 2008 storm right up until it started 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Careful there with that idea Kev....last time you thought the high was gonna Press and deliver 3-6” before the ice, and that didn’t happen. This could easily be just a cold rain for most in SNE. Take the cautious route on this one as of now...probably more Meh than anything for most south of pike the way it stands currently. It’s got more work to do to be a mostly frozen event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Eckster's take early on for up here.... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 12z deterministic models and latest ensemble information have come into better agreement today with regards to a potentially significant winter storm for portions of our forecast area Sunday night through Tuesday. However with that said, this is a complex, potentially 2-part system which may spur further model outcome changes going forward over the next couple of days. Therefore, forecast confidence is precip type(s), timing, and amounts remains low. After a fair weather Saturday and probably much of Sunday, a large an amplifying trough will approach from the west along with a significant slug of moisture advection and forcing for ascent. At the same time, mid and upper level confluence well to the northeast of our region will reinforce cold dry low level air over the forecast area. Multi-model and ensemble consensus was followed here and shows a rather impressive slug of QPF arriving across southwestern zones late Sunday, then gradually progressing northeastward Sunday night. The emphasis is on the word gradually as low level dry air and synoptic scale downward motion will make for a slow go for the leading edge. Precipitation type is very uncertain, but a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain appears to be a good bet based on the latest consensus thermodynamic profiles. Some rain will be possible for a time in the far southeast as boundary layer temperatures remain somewhat warm. As previously mentioned, the pattern is complex with a lot of amplification and "blockiness". Therefore, it doesn`t make much sense at this time to try and pinpoint exact timing, dominant precipitation types, amounts, and impacts this far out. More suppression would lead to a farther south scenario as less precipitation for our CWA as a whole. A farther north scenario with less upstream blocking would result in a warmer scenario for most. However, the main message here is that there is the potential for a significant amount of snow, sleet, freezing rain and possibly some rain for the forecast area centered around Sunday night through Tuesday as a prolonged, 2-part system may take shape. At this time, consensus for the location of the heaviest amount of precipitation is across southern and coastal zones, but this could easily change. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Careful there with that idea Kev....last time you thought the high was gonna Press and deliver 3-6” before the ice, and that didn’t happen. This could easily be just a cold rain for most in SNE. Take the cautious route on this one as of now...probably more Meh than anything for most south of pike the way it stands currently. It’s got more work to do to be a mostly frozen event. Not excited yet, but we have a chance, better than the last few days which have been boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, DavisStraight said: Not excited yet, but we have a chance, better than the last few days which have been boring. Yes sir DavisStraight...hopefully the trends keep going in our favor/the right direction? But this could easily be a nothing burger for most in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not expecting that at all. Every run has gone colder. This is a very anomalous setup. The high keeps getting stronger each run. I recall the same was though with the 2008 storm right up until it started Dude. You are a weenie. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dude. You are a weenie. Instead of throwing pot shots What are you expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 18z euro looked a tick better with the Scooter streak...thus a hair colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 HP, 4mb stronger, From 1032 mb to 1036 mb that run north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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