jjwxman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 The 12z Euro is like the voice of reason that can't be ignored. The entire system seemed to be not nearly as strong as the 00z run. Even the severe parameters were lessoned from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 This could be a nice dump for the western side of the mountains... don’t get your hopes up anywhere else. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 This is fun. Any trough this strong and sharp is worthy of scrutiny! That being said, the globals are starting to converge on an axis extending from Nashville-ish northward to have the best shot of noteworthy snow. If you're east of the apps, its about time to see some ensemble members show big hits to think that you're in the mix for a noteworthy event. If the trough wants to tilt negative as the trends today pointed to- I don't think the trough orientation is quite in our favor, and likely favors an inland low track. Some optimism- It's a ton of energy- I wouldn't shut the door on a weak clipper system or some flurries as the base of the trough passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, ILMRoss said: This is fun. Any trough this strong and sharp is worthy of scrutiny! That being said, the globals are starting to converge on an axis extending from Nashville-ish northward to have the best shot of noteworthy snow. If you're east of the apps, its about time to see some ensemble members show big hits to think that you're in the mix for a noteworthy event. If the trough wants to tilt negative as the trends today pointed to- I don't think the trough orientation is quite in our favor, and likely favors an inland low track. Some optimism- It's a ton of energy- I wouldn't shut the door on a weak clipper system or some flurries as the base of the trough passes. I think that’s my hope, the clipper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Interested in week leading into New Years. The -NAO means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, HKY1894 said: Interested in week leading into New Years. The -NAO means business Euro shows a possible CAD setup day 11 but probably cold rain or ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: This could be a nice dump for the western side of the mountains... don’t get your hopes up anywhere else. Will it EVER be OUR turn? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 8 hours ago, jjwxman said: That is also PTI’s coldest Christmas on record. That was a very cold stretch. The 24th, 25th and 26th morning low records still stand. . Looking back at my records the low on the 24th came at 11:45pm, so the low for the 24th and the 25th occurred within 8 hours of each other during the same overnight period. I recorded a low of -1 on the 24th (PM), -4 on the 25th (AM), and +2 on the 26th. We had a nice icing event on the 27th with a low of 18 and a high of 29, then there was another cold front that went through on the 29th that resulted in a low of +6 on the 30th and a high of 23. The following morning (31st) the low was +4. Christmas 1983 is in my top 10 weather events I have experienced. The pictures below are of the Smith River in Eden taken on January 1, 1984 where the Ice was between 7 and 9 inches thick and safe enough to walk across. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: What a difference 24 hours makes (this is for the 22nd) Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk I'm going to photo-shop a N'awlens Low ... just to make myself feel better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 I'm going to photo-shop a N'awlens Low ... just to make myself feel better.Better be a 990 bomberSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Can I laugh yet?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 48 minutes ago, Tullioz said: Looking back at my records the low on the 24th came at 11:45pm, so the low for the 24th and the 25th occurred within 8 hours of each other during the same overnight period. I recorded a low of -1 on the 24th (PM), -4 on the 25th (AM), and +2 on the 26th. We had a nice icing event on the 27th with a low of 18 and a high of 29, then there was another cold front that went through on the 29th that resulted in a low of +6 on the 30th and a high of 23. The following morning (31st) the low was +4. Christmas 1983 is in my top 10 weather events I have experienced. The pictures below are of the Smith River in Eden taken on January 1, 1984 where the Ice was between 7 and 9 inches thick and safe enough to walk across. Great information! I was home from college break that December and parents insisted I work at the lumber yard where I worked summers. I remember delivering a load of Sheetrock to Cashiers NC and it was 3 below. Rest of that winter sucked except a little snow in Feb. Pretty rare low snow winter for the 80s. Wildest frontal passage I remember was in Jan of 78. Went to bed at 1000pm. It was breezy, 68, and tornado watch. Woke up at 645 and it was 17 at GSP with 1/2” of fine powder whipping around in 50 mph winds. Another snow squal came through at 830 and temp dropped to 15. I feel for the younger whimper-snappers that didn’t get to experience the 70s and 80s wild winters in the SE. However the setup for next week looks interesting and the indices look good today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 hours ago, BullCityWx said: That front is a close to a blue norther that we’d ever see That’s exactly what I said to my co worker I’ve only experienced one, while at Arabian regionals, just west of Ft Worth back in the 80’s. I would love to experience another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1989 RDUX baby once more in My lifetime... I was 23~24 then? It was when My oldest Daughter was "conceived".. Christmas Coastal Snowstorm: December 22-24, 1989 (weather.gov) Temps in the Zeros for Days.. I'm watching that Baha Low.. Oh My showing Muh Age.. I still recall awesome snowstorms in the 70's.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 This was the coldest morning of the cold wave across the interior Southeastern states. Temperatures in Talladega reached 1 degree, 4 in Birmingham, 6 in Atlanta, 9 in Crestview (Florida), 11 in Pensacola, and 13 in Tallahassee. It was absolutely brutal in the North Carolina mountains with -18 degrees recorded in Banner Elk, -7 on Grandfather Mountain, and -5 in Blowing Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Sigh...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Borrowed this from the Mid-Atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 This system bears watching, as a wave of low pressure MAY ride along front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 let's see if this wave can hang back a little more to give the cold air time to sweep in GFS trend: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtgus Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 8 hours ago, BullCityWx said: That front is a close to a blue norther that we’d ever see What is a "blue norther"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 22 minutes ago, jtgus said: What is a "blue norther"? Courtesy of wiki at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Norther_(weather) "A Blue Norther, also known as a Texas Norther, is a fast moving cold front marked by a rapid drop in temperature, strong winds, and dark blue or "black" skies. The cold front originates from the north, hence the "norther", and can send temperatures plummeting by 20 or 30 degrees in merely minutes." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Tornadoes one day, snow the next... 2020 going out with a bangSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 The long range GFS is Lots of rain though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 So close... Yet so farSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Bet on the severe but not the snow for the NC Piedmont. This is a classic cold chasing the moisture scenario and 90% of the time that is a losing proposition. I want snow just as bad as anyone but it is not in the cards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Yes I am afraid so. I think people could see a few flakes flying in Northwest NC but snow with a cold front rarely happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, Grayman said: Yes I am afraid so. I think people could see a few flakes flying in Northwest NC but snow with a cold front rarely happens . Yep, usually takes either a stationary front to our south with a low sliding along it or a Northeaster off the coast with cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 This wave behind the Xmas storm has a lot going for it. Cold dry air in place and blocking. If we can get a system from this I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 You go have to give the GFS points for consistency with measurable snow in north GA including Atlanta -let's just hope the Euro starts trending stronger/slower. The short wave in question is still in the Pacific so until that comes onshore in 36 hours or so we will still not know much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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